Legia Warsaw vs Chelsea Prediction: Blues to cruise to low-scoring success

Uefa Conference League favourites Chelsea aim to extend their fine European record this season in the first leg of their quarter-final at Legia Warsaw in Poland on Thursday (17.45, TNT Sports 1).

Chelsea have won all four away main-stage ties - and all eight overall - but indifferent domestic form should make them wary of a Legia side in decent form. Below you can find my Legia Warsaw vs Chelsea predictions.

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Team News

Legia are missing centre-back Artur Jedrzejczyk, who is suspended, though Steve Kapuadi is fully fit again and can replace the Pole.

Head coach Goncalo Feio sets his side up in a 4-3-3 formation with their hopes resting on Spaniard Marc Gual, who has scored five goals in his last seven games.

Chelsea are still minus Romeo Lavia and Wesley Fofana. Enzo Maresca put the likes of Levi Colwill, Marc Cucurella, Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson on the bench at Brentford on Sunday, so most of those can expect starts in Warsaw.

Legia Warsaw vs Chelsea

Chelsea, the 1/2 outright Conference League favourites, are 8/15 to win at Legia - despite having won only one of their last 10 away games in all competitions.

Palmer, without a goal in three months, is 4/1 first-scorer favourite ahead of Jackson (5/1), while Legia are 5/1 to take a lead to Stamford Bridge next week.

Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/10

Chelsea's domestic away form might leave plenty to be desired - they have not won a Premier League road trip for four months - but on their travels in Europe they do not put a foot wrong.

They have played a quartet of main-stage away games - three group ties at Panathinaikos, Heidenheim and Astana plus a round-of-16 shoot-out at FC Copenhagen - and they have won the lot.

In Legia Warsaw they are going to be up against a Polish opponent who have themselves impressed in Europe this term, managing four wins in six in the group phase before pipping Molde in the last round, and the hosts will be backed by a hostile, passionate fanbase.

But Chelsea just seem to be getting the job done in this competition and with Maresca able to bring in a few fresh faces following their largely stale 0-0 draw at Brentford on Sunday, expect the visitors to get the win ahead of the return leg in London next week.

Goals have dried up for the Blues, that's beyond dispute - they have scored just six times in their last 10 away games - so don't expect a landslide triumph.

Over 47.5 Booking Points @ 11/10

Chelsea are remarkably well behaved in Europe - receiving only 11 cards in total in eight games - but that is because they have not been asked many searching questions by sides who can get under their skin.

Legia, one of the worst behaved teams in the Conference League with 29 cards, three of them red, could be just that opponent.

There have been at least five cards shown in five of Legia's last six fixtures, so take the 11/10 there are over 47.5 booking points (10 per yellow, 25 per red) at the Polish Army Stadium.

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