Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: Memeti to make another fast start

Two wins after the March international break have moved Melbourne City up to third in the Australian A-League Men's table, and they are now just six points behind leaders Auckland FC, who have drawn three of their last four games, with four rounds of fixtures remaining. The Premiers' Plate is now in sight for City, but they will need to beat Brisbane Roar at AAMI Park on Friday (10:35, TNT Sports 1) if they are to stay in the race with the Black Knights and Western United.

Read below for my Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Melbourne City are boosted by the return of Mathew Leckie from a calf injury that had kept him out of recent wins against Sydney FC and Central Coast Mariners.

However, experienced centre-back Samuel Souprayen has been struck down by a similar issue and will have to be replaced in Aurelio Vidmar's starting XI. Kai Trewin dropped back from midfield to deputise for the Frenchman in the latter stages of last Saturday's victory over the Mariners, and the 23-year-old looks likely to partner German Ferreyra in the middle of defence on Friday.

Steven Ugarkovic, who made his return from suspension as a substitute last weekend, is set to start in midfield alongside Alessandro Lopane.

Football Odds

Zane Schreiber and Emin Durakovic have been promoted to City's extended squad, but Andrew Nabbout, Jayden Necovski, James Nieuwenhuzien (all knee) and James Jeggo (Achilles) are out injured for the hosts.

Ruben Zadkovich has made one change to his Brisbane Roar squad for their trip to Melbourne.

Jack Hingert is back from suspension and is in contention to play his 304th game for the club, a number that would see him overtake Matt McKay as their record appearance maker.

Henry Hore was reduced to a substitute outing in last week's defeat to Macarthur FC because of a groin issue, but the 25-year-old is available for selection this week.

Antonee Burkey-Gilroy misses out for the visitors, who will be without injured duo Ben Warland (knee) and Corey Brown (unspecified).

Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar Odds

Melbourne City have already beaten Brisbane Roar twice this season, thrashing Zadkovich's side 4-1 at Suncorp Stadium in December before edging them out 1-0 at AAMI Park the following month.

Vidmar's charges are 2/5 to make it a hat-trick of victories over Roar on Friday, implying a 71.4% probability, while the visitors are 11/2, or a 15.4% chance, to claim their third away win of the campaign.

The draw is priced at 16/5, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Yonatan Cohen (13/10) and Max Caputo (11/8) head the anytime goalscorer market for Friday's fixture, with Hore (100/30) first up for Roar.

Home Team Total Goals - Over 2.5 @ 13/8

City's goalscoring record this season has been unremarkable, to say the least, with only the bottom four clubs posting a lower tally than their 31 strikes, which averages out at 1.4 per game. Instead, it's been their miserly defence that has seen them come on strong and pose a potential threat to the top two, with 20 goals conceded the fewest in the league.

However, there are reasons to believe that they can score a few on Friday and land this 13/8 selection.

Vidmar's side struck three times in a 3-2 win at Sydney FC on March 29 and have scored at least twice in half (three) of their last six games.

Their opponents this week, Roar, have conceded 45 times in the 2024/25 ALM so far (2.1 p/g), and their 5-1 home thrashing by Macarthur FC last Friday landed me a 15/8 and 9/2 winner.

Zadkovich can't afford to write the campaign off, despite his team being unable to finish in the play-offs and looking extremely unlikely to catch Wellington Phoenix in 11th, as they are still in danger of receiving the dreaded wooden spoon for finishing bottom.

Roar are currently level on 11 points with Perth Glory, who are bottom only on goal difference, although Brisbane have played two games fewer than their rivals.

Still, that didn't seem to spur them on last week as the Bulls rampaged through their defence numerous times at Suncorp and scored five goals, making it the eighth time this season that Roar had conceded three or more goals in a single game.

City have welcomed several attackers back from injuries in recent weeks, all of whom have been finding their feet again, and it could be Friday that everything starts to come together for them.

First Goalscorer - Medin Memeti (MCI) @ 9/2

City striker Medin Memeti has enjoyed a breakout season in the ALM, netting four goals in 14 appearances, and he'd likely have more games under his belt were it not for his involvement with the Australia U20s at the AFC U20 Asian Cup in China earlier this year.

Still, only eight-cap Israel international Cohen (also four goals) can match the 17-year-old's league tally in 2024/25, and after scoring in back-to-back wins over Sydney FC and the Mariners, he will be looking to make it three in a row on Friday.

Memeti is only 6/4 to score anytime against Brisbane, but as three of his four goals this season have been the game's opening strike, it's the first goalscorer market where he piques my interest at 9/2.

The City Academy graduate's first effort of the campaign came with the final strike of a 5-0 thrashing of Perth Glory on November 10, and he doubled his tally on December 15 against Auckland FC, opening the scoring in the 18th minute.

He had to wait until March 29 for his third goal, which arrived in the fifth minute of City's 3-2 win at Sydney FC. Then, last Saturday, he scored the only goal of the game against the Mariners in the 29th minute.

Memeti should be licking his lips at the chance to play a beleaguered Brisbane side in Melbourne, and I'm backing the teenager to get the party started for City on Friday.

Offers

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