Derby vs Burnley Prediction: Clarets are in the driving seat

Thanks to their consistency and their closest rivals slipping up, Burnley have been thrust into the driving seat of the promotion race from the Championship. The Clarets are sat on 84 points, two ahead of Leeds United in third. They are in action on Tuesday night (19:45, Sky Sports+) as they make the trip to Pride Park to face Derby County.

The Rams were beaten by Swansea City on Saturday but they have won their last three home matches in the second tier. Read on for my Derby vs Burnley predictions, where you will also find the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Ryan Nyambe's season was brought to an end in Derby's victory over Preston North End last Wednesday as he sustained a hamstring injury. David Ozoh (thigh) is another who is not expected back until pre-season due to an issue he picked up last month.

Despite a disappointing result in South Wales last time out, John Eustace will likely stick with a similar XI on Tuesday. The Rams boss is able to restore top scorer Jerry Yates to the attack after the striker was unable to feature against his parent club over the weekend.

Yates should be replenished for the visit of the league leaders, and looks set to resume his partnership with Marcus Harness up top. Harrison Armstrong, Ebou Adams and Liam Thompson are expected to continue in the engine room for the hosts.

Burnley remain without Mike Tresor and Jordan Beyer, who are both yet to feature for the table-toppers in the Championship this campaign. Enock Aygei is another long-term absentee for the Clarets, while Bashir Humphreys and Jonjo Shelvey are the other players who are confined to the medical bay.

It is hoped that Aaron Ramsey can make a comeback soon after a lengthy spell on the sidelines. The midfielder is being closely monitored by the medical team.

Scott Parker may opt for some rotation in midweek so that there is plenty of energy in his team for a tough trip to the East Midlands. This could lead to recalls for the likes of Zian Flemming, Hannibal Mejbri and Jeremy Sarmiento.

Jaidon Anthony's confidence will be sky-high following his brace in the victory at Coventry City on Saturday and he should maintain his place on the left flank, while Marcus Edwards is likely to hold the width on the right.

Parker will not deviate from his settled defence of Lucas Pires, CJ Egan-Riley, Maxime Esteve and Connor Roberts, whose jobs are to shield goalkeeper James Trafford.

Derby vs Burnley Odds

Derby have won their last three home games in the league and they are 18/5 to keep that run going by defeating the league leaders.

Similarly, Burnley have triumphed in each of their previous three away trips in the second tier, and they are the 9/10 favourites to collect the points on Tuesday. If you are in search of better value, backing the Clarets to win to nil is appealing at 6/4 (or an implied chance of 40%), which has landed in eight of their 20 fixtures (also 40%) on the road.

The draw, which was the outcome when the two teams met at Turf Moor back in December, is available at 11/5.

Under 2.5 goals has been a successful bet in five of Derby's past seven Championship matches, and this is on offer at 4/9 on this occasion.

Burnley to win to nil @ 6/4

Thanks to lapses in concentration from their closest rivals, Burnley are now in pole position to gain promotion back to the Premier League, and it is hard to see Parker's men losing focus in the final stretch.

Their success this season has stemmed from their defensive solidity. They have only conceded 12 goals across 40 matches which is truly extraordinary. As the season has wore on, they have improved their attacking quality and this should serve them well against Derby on Tuesday.

The Clarets are on a three-game winning streak on their travels and I think they have the quality to bring to an end Derby's run of victories at Pride Park. Burnley are just well-drilled and at this stage of the campaign, they know exactly what they are doing and what is required to get them over the line.

They have seen 40% of their away trips end with them winning and keeping a clean sheet, and I believe we will see this trend continue on Tuesday. They've kept the Rams at bay once already this season, too.

Burnley 1-0 @ 4/1

I'm going a bit braver with this second selection by predicting the correct score. I like the look of 1-0 to the visitors and this is largely down to the form of Derby under Eustace.

They are no longer the easy target that they were under Paul Warne, and they are far more competitive in their matches, so they should make this a tough away contest for Burnley.

The Rams have won three on the trot here so the Clarets will need to be at their very best to put another three points on the board. I can see this being a tight affair, like the reverse fixture was back in December.

It feels like a moment of magic may be the difference here, and Burnley do have more players who can deliver such moments. Derby have only conceded one goal at Pride Park in their past three games, so I think a Burnley 1-0 is more than realistic here.

The visitors have posted seven victories by this same scoreline in the Championship in 2024/25, too.

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