Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction: Courtois could be in for busy night at Emirates

Two teams that are hoping to shake off injury problems to mount a serious Champions League challenge clash at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night (20:00, live on Prime Video).

Real Madrid are in England for the third time this season, to take on Arsenal who are bidding to reach the last four of this competition for the first time in 16 years. Check out my Arsenal vs Real Madrid predictions below.

Football Odds

The clubs have surprisingly only been paired together on one previous occasion in European competition. That was during the season of Arsenal’s best ever Champions League run, when Thierry Henry’s brilliant solo strike at the Bernabeu was the only goal in a tight round-of-16 tie.

Nineteen years later, Mikel Arteta’s side are hoping to see off Los Blancos again and they can take confidence from a strong European campaign to date. They won six out of eight in the league phase, conceding just three goals, to finish in third place and secure direct passage into the last 16.

A thumping 7-1 win in the Netherlands against PSV Eindhoven ensured Arsenal barely needed to break sweat to set up this quarter-final tie, but this is where the hard work really starts for the Gunners who fell at this stage against Bayern Munich last season.

They haven’t really hit top gear since running riot at the Philips Stadion early last month. It’s two wins and three draws from five matches in all competitions since then for Arsenal who could only take a point from their Premier League trip to Everton on Saturday.

Despite a surprise defeat for leaders Liverpool the following day, Arsenal are still 11 points back in second place in the league, with this competition now the absolute priority for Arteta as he tries to mastermind what would arguably be the most significant victory of his managerial career to date.

Selection issues have played a role in Arsenal’s relative struggles in recent months, with only four of their last 10 games in all competitions ending in victory. However, the same can certainly be said of Real Madrid who appear to be paying the price for deciding not to sign replacements for injured defenders Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao in January.

A run of eight games without a clean sheet in all competitions makes it clear that all is not well at the back, with eight goals conceded in their last three matches alone. Those fixtures were all at home, and against Leganes, Real Sociedad and Valencia, three teams who have been anything but free-scoring this season, so Carlo Ancelotti will be a slightly worried man heading into this tie.

Los Blancos suffered a 2-1 defeat at the weekend against a Valencia side that had not previously won away all season in La Liga, with a 95th-minute winner from former Madrid forward Hugo Duro sparking an angry reaction inside the Bernabeu.

The defending European champions have not really played well since they saw off Manchester City in convincing fashion in the Champions League play-off round, with Kylian Mbappe netting on four occasions across the two legs in a 6-3 aggregate win.

They were not convincing in the round-of-16 against Atletico Madrid, with their city rivals perhaps shading the tie overall, but to the surprise of absolutely nobody, Real Madrid dug deep and snuck through on penalties.

Their ability to almost always find a way in this competition is both extraordinary and unrivalled, but even the most optimistic of Real Madrid fans would probably concede that they are going to need to play a lot better than they are currently, if they’re to stand any chance of winning a record-extending 16th European crown.

Team News

Both sides have some significant selection issues, particularly at the back, with Gabriel Magalhaes, Riccardo Calafiori and Takehiro Tomiyasu currently sidelined due to injury for the Gunners. Jakub Kiwior is expected to play in central defence here, despite only making three Premier League starts this season.

With Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus also out injured, Mikel Merino is set to continue as an emergency striker. Raheem Sterling is suspended, but there’s better news for Arsenal with Bukayo Saka expected to start, having been fit enough to feature off the bench in their last two matches.

As for Real Madrid, the suspension of the versatile Aurélien Tchouameni adds to Ancelotti’s problems. He may again utilise Fede Valverde at right-back as opposed to the unconvincing Lucas Vazquez, while Ferland Mendy is out injured, so either Fran Garcia or Eduardo Camavinga will likely start at left-back.

In better news for the visitors, Thibaut Courtois has been included in the squad to travel to London following a muscle strain, after 19-year-old Fran Gonzalez started against Valencia, with back-up Andriy Lunin also carrying an injury.

Former Arsenal midfielder Dani Ceballos misses out again though. The 28-year-old has been surprisingly important for Los Blancos this term, and his absence may see veteran Luka Modric get the nod in the centre of the park.

Arsenal vs Real Madrid Odds

Arsenal are the 11/8 favourites to win the first leg. You can back the draw at 21/10, while Real Madrid are priced at 2/1 to take control of this tie by winning at the Emirates.

If you’re expecting this game to deliver on the entertainment front, over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, while you can back over 3.5 goals at 3/1. Punters can also take advantage of a Price Boost to back both teams to score, Both teams 4+ corners and both teams 20+ booking points at enhanced odds of 6/1.

The Gunners are priced at 6/4 to score over 1.5 goals, while they are available at 7/1 to win both halves. Alternatively, Real Madrid can be backed at 21/20 to win either half, while Ancelotti’s side are available at 2/1 to score over 1.5 goals.

While the visitors may be the slight underdogs in the first leg, Kylian Mbappe still leads the way as the 9/2 favourite to score first, while he’s on offer at 9/5 to score anytime.

From a home perspective, you can take your pick between Bukayo Saka and Mikel Merino who are each priced at 13/5 to get on the scoresheet at some point in this game.

Both teams to score - yes @ 10/11

With both sides missing key defenders, there are some obvious weak points that the two managers will be looking to exploit here.

Arsenal will know that they need to make home advantage count, and up against a Real Madrid side that has been far too open in recent games, there should be chances in this for the home team whose attacking threat will be significantly boosted by the return of Saka.

The visitors are likely to start with Mbappe, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior all on the pitch though, and for all their current problems, that is still an extremely dangerous attacking unit that’s capable of striking with pace on the break, and producing a moment of quality at any given moment.

Given that, there looks to be value in backing both teams to score at 10/11.

Bet Builder - Arsenal 14+ shots & Arsenal over 3.5 corners  @ 13/10

One area where Arsenal should have supremacy is in midfield, with the likes of Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard who won’t be lacking motivation against the club that never really granted him a prolonged first-team opportunity.

Real Madrid have really missed Toni Kroos this season, with Ceballos the closest thing they’ve found to the German’s controlling influence. Given the Spaniard is out injured, and with Valverde potentially dropping back into right-back again, Los Blancos are just not functioning well in the middle of the pitch and that has contributed to a number of opposing teams playing through them with ease in recent weeks.

Since the start of March, opposing sides have averaged 14.4 shots per game against Real Madrid. While two of those matches did go to extra time, that run includes a number of favourable home fixtures, and those numbers suggest that Courtois may be in for a busy night at the Emirates.

Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Arsenal 14+ shots and Arsenal over 3.5 corners at 13/10.

Offers

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Tuesday (08/04): We will be Top Price on Arsenal to beat Real Madrid with selected bookmakers using Oddschecker for the comparison. (Available from 09:30 Tuesday)

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Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page.

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