PSG vs Aston Villa Prediction: Unhappy return to Paris for Unai

Aston Villa's reward for a 6-1 aggregate victory over Club Brugge in the Uefa Champions League last 16 is a quarter-final tie with French champions Paris Saint-Germain, who host the Villans at the Parc des Princes in Wednesday's first leg (20:00, TNT Sports 1).

Below are my PSG vs Aston Villa predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

It was announced last week that PSG attacker Lee Kang-in had returned to partial training following an ankle injury sustained on international duty in March, but the South Korean wasn't in the squad for Saturday's 1-0 win against Angers, a result that saw Les Parisiens crowned Ligue 1 champions for a record 13th time.

Lee looks unlikely to be involved in midweek, so he might have to watch on from the stands alongside PSG captain Marquinhos, who is suspended after picking up his third European yellow of the season in the last-16 second-leg victory over Liverpool at Anfield.

Fellow Brazilian defender Lucas Beraldo replaced Marquinhos just before extra time in L4, and the 21-year-old could be given the nod to start in the middle of defence alongside Willian Pacho on Wednesday.

Football Odds

Nuno Mendes, Joao Neves, Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembele all began Saturday's win on the bench but should be restored to Luis Enrique's starting XI in midweek.

Mendes would come in at left-back for Lucas Hernandez and Neves in midfield for Warren Zaire-Emery, while Goncalo Ramos and Desire Doue could make way in attack for Barcola and Dembele.

On-loan PSG playmaker Marco Asensio will be allowed to feature for Villa on Wednesday as Uefa regulations don't forbid players from facing their parent club. The Spaniard could start at the Parc des Princes, too, having scored eight goals in 11 appearances since joining the Premier League side in January.

The 29-year-old was one of just three Villans - alongside Emiliano Martinez and Youri Tielemans - to keep their starting spots for Saturday's 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest, indicating that head coach Unai Emery was resting several players for his side's trip to the French capital.

Pau Torres, Ezri Konsa, Matty Cash, Lucas Digne, Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn, Jacob Ramsey and Marcus Rashford are all in line to return to Emery's starting XI after beginning Saturday's victory on the bench.

Spanish right-back Andres Garcia and Dutch winger Donyell Malen will certainly drop out of the line-up, as neither January signing was added to Villa's European squad list.

Ross Barkley recently returned to training after spending a significant period on the sidelines with a knee injury, but this match might come too soon for him, while Leon Bailey will be hopeful of overcoming the knock that has ruled him out of Villa's last three games.

PSG vs Aston Villa Odds

PSG have won nine of their last 11 home games and are 2/5 to make it 10 from 12 on Wednesday, implying a 71.4% probability. Villa, meanwhile, have won their last four away matches and are 7/1, or a 12.5% chance, to make it five in a row on their travels.

The draw is priced at 4/1, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

PSG star Dembele, who has struck seven times in his last six Champions League appearances, heads the anytime goalscorer market at 1/1, followed by Ramos (6/5), Barcola (11/8) and Kvaratskhelia (6/4), with Ollie Watkins (5/2) first up for the visitors.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - PSG & Under 3.5 Goals @ 11/8

PSG endured a difficult start to the European campaign, winning just one of their first five league phase games to leave their qualification hopes hanging in the balance.

Les Parisiens won their final three, however, to finish 15th and comfortably qualify for the knockout phase play-offs, where they dismantled fellow French side Stade Brestois 10-0 on aggregate.

In the last 16, they were paired with Premier League champions in waiting Liverpool, who were made favourites to progress to the quarter-finals, but despite the Reds stealing a 1-0 win in Paris, it was Luis Enrique's men who emerged victorious over the tie.

PSG reversed the scoreline at Anfield and subsequently triumphed via a penalty shootout to set up a two-legged meeting with Villa.

The Birmingham club finished eighth in the league phase, three points ahead of PSG, to avoid the play-offs, and they were more convincing winners in the quarters, beating Club Brugge 3-1 in Belgium and 3-0 in England.

However, while former PSG boss Emery deserves credit for guiding the Villans to the final eight of Europe's premier club competition, it should be acknowledged that they've been afforded a rather luxurious passage to this stage.

A couple of traditional big hitters, Juventus (0-0) and Bayern Munich (1-0), visited Villa Park in the league phase and were unable to win, but both teams were in a transitional period, particularly the Old Lady.

Monaco away is about as difficult as it got for Villa on their travels, and they lost against the principality club and suffered another defeat away to Club Brugge, although they exacted their revenge on the Belgians in the last 16.

I think Villa will pose big problems for PSG in the return leg, but a couple of league phase wins away to poor sides in Young Boys and RB Leipzig aren't enough to convince me that this is a team to be feared away from Villa Park.

Granted, the Villans are on an eight-game winning streak and have won their last four away from home, but PSG should represent a significant step up in class on Club Brugge, Brentford, Preston North End and Brighton & Hove Albion.

Luis Enrique's side are unbeaten in Ligue 1 this season (W23, D8) and have lost just once in all competitions since November 26, and that defeat, against Liverpool in Paris, was unjust on the balance of play. The French giants are in scintillating form, and that is reflected in their short price of 2/5 to claim victory on Wednesday.

You're not getting much bang for your buck there, though, so backing a home win and under 3.5 total goals at 11/8 is where the value lies, in my opinion.

PSG have been in free-scoring mode this calendar year, but there was just one goal in each of their two legs against Liverpool and just a single strike in Saturday's success against Angers.

Villa, meanwhile, have seen exactly three goals scored in their last five games, and under 3.5 has landed in seven of their last nine.

Both of Villa's league phase defeats saw them lose by a 1-0 scoreline, and while I don't necessarily envisage such an outcome on Wednesday, I think they can keep themselves in the tie. A 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 win for the hosts would be my scoreline picks, so the above selection suits here.

Player to Receive a Card - Lucas Digne (AVL) @ 100/30

Asensio isn't the only Villa player set for a reunion appearance at the Parc des Princes, with French left-back Digne also returning to a club where he spent the 2013/14 and 2014/15 seasons.

The 31-year-old has been Emery's preferred man on the left-hand side of defence for the majority of the season, despite the big-money arrival of Ian Maatsen last summer.

Maatsen hasn't enjoyed many starts under the Spaniard but did his chances of beginning Wednesday's game no harm by registering an assist against Forest on Saturday.

However, Digne is the more accomplished defender and should be fresh after staying on the bench at the weekend.

As a result, the former Everton full-back comes under consideration in the player card market here, with PSG possessing several attacking stars that could cause him problems in Paris.

Kvaratskhelia is averaging 1.5 fouls won per 90 minutes in the Champions League (2.1 p/90 in Ligue 1), Dembele 1.5 p/90 in the same competition (0.8 p/90 in Ligue 1), and Desire Doue 0.6 p/90 in Europe (2.1 p/90 in Ligue 1).

Digne, meanwhile, is only averaging 0.2 fouls made p/90 in this season's Champions League, but his average for the Premier League is 0.8, and he's been carded twice in seven European appearances, which is only one fewer than he has amassed in the English top flight.

Both of Digne's bookings have been given away from Villa Park, meaning he has been cautioned in half (two) of his four European outings on foreign soil this season.

At 100/30, I think he's good value to make it three in five against PSG's fearsome front line.

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