Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol Prediction: Lopez to land 11/4 card

Rayo Vallecano ended a five-game wait for a win last Saturday, beating Deportivo Alaves 2-0 to move up to seventh. On Friday (20:00, La Liga TV), Los Franjirrojos are visited at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas by Espanyol (16th), who are without a win in their last three matches, but the latest was a 1-1 draw against La Liga title-chasers Atletico Madrid.

Below are my Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Jonathan Montiel (ankle), Abdul Mumin (knee) and Sergio Camello (toe) are all likely to be out injured for Rayo Vallecano, who will at least welcome back influential defender Floriane Lejeune from suspension.

Football Odds

Pedro Diaz has scored in Rayo's last three games, the latest off the bench against Alavese, so the 26-year-old is surely in contention for a start on Friday.

Former Espanyol striker Raul de Tomas, who swapped the city of Barcelona for Madrid in 2022, made his return from injury last week, featuring on the bench for the first time since November 24.

Jose Catala (knee) and Jose Gragera (foot) are out injured for Espanyol, whose head coach Manolo Gonzalez could name the same starting XI that line up in last weekend's 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid.

Pol Lozano was withdrawn at half-time against Atletico, with on-loan Tottenham Hotspur striker Alejo Veliz brought on with the Periquitos a goal down at home. However, Lozano should keep his starting spot for Friday's trip to Madrid.

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol Odds

Rayo are winless in their last three home games but are installed as 8/11 favourites for Friday's match, implying a win probability of 57.9%. Espanyol, meanwhile, are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to do the double after beating Los Franjirrojos 2-1 in August's reverse meeting.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 5/4, and over 2.5 total goals at 6/4.

De Tomas is 23/10 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, but with the 30-year-old unlikely to start, the in-form Diaz (13/5) might be a more realistic player to back for Rayo.

Player to Receive a Card - Unai Lopez (RAY) @ 11/4

Rayo midfielder Unai Lopez suffered an injury during his side's 1-0 win over Valladolid on February 7 and missed the next three games before making his return as a substitute against Real Madrid on March 9. He began the next match, a 2-2 draw with Real Sociedad, on the bench, before being restored to the starting XI last week.

The 29-year-old is likely to start again on Friday, and with seven yellow cards and one red - all issued to him in his first 19 appearances - he stands out as a major candidate in the player cards market here.

Lopez has committed 15 fouls in 23 La Liga games this season, averaging 1.1 per 90 minutes, and in August's reverse fixture in Barcelona, he gave away one free-kick.

I looked at a few others in this market, notably Lozano (15/8) and Omar El Hilali (2/1), but Lopez (0.5) is averaging more cards per 90 than the latter (0.4), and is only just below the former (0.6), so offers much more value at 11/4.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 5/4

Six of Espanyol and Rayo's last eight La Liga games have stayed under 2.5 goals, which might go some way to explaining how we are getting over EVS for both teams to score on Friday.

More importantly, though, both clubs are in the top half of the La Liga BTTS table. Espanyol are fourth as 64% of their league games this season have seen both teams score, while Rayo are joint-fifth (62%).

BTTS - Yes has been a winner in three of Rayo's last four games, including their two at home in March, while it's five in six for Espanyol, who have seen a goal on either side in three of their last four away trips.

Rayo and Espanyol were both on the scoresheet in August's reverse fixture as the Perequitos won 2-1 at home. The visitors opened the scoring in the fourth minute, and just four minutes later, the hosts equalised.

Both sides have a to play for still this season, with Rayo aiming for Europe and Espanyol scrapping for survival, so neither team should be settling for a stalemate on Friday, which could mean an end-to-end encounter.

Offers

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