South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers Prediction: 21/10 champs to break losing run

Round four of the NRL Premiership gets underway on Thursday when the champions, Penrith Panthers, head to Accor Stadium without Nathan Cleary to take on the South Sydney Rabbitohs (09:00 GMT, 20:00 local).

Cleary misses out after the head knock which saw him depart in the early stages of the defeat to the Melbourne Storm last week and his absence will have an effect on my South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers predictions. They follow below with full team news and Betfred’s match odds.

South South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers Odds

Despite their back-to-back losses back on Australian soil following an opening win in Las Vegas, the champs are heavily backed to get going again at the Olympic Stadium.

They’re the 3/10 favourites for victory in 80 minutes, making them an implied 76.9% shot. Their hosts are 13/5 to record a third victory in four having been blasted away by the Cronulla Sharks in the first half of a 27-12 defeat in round three.

The handicap provides an interesting market, with the regular two-way marker being set at a 9.5-point leg-up for the Rabbitohs. They are 20/21 in that setting, with the Panthers lengthened to 5/6 with the start against them.

Team News

Changes are made to Wayne Bennett’s Rabbitohs side after their first defeat of the campaign, with tryscoring legend Alex Johnston back after an Achilles injury which has sidelined him since July last year.

Campbell Graham is out with a calf problem, so Isaiah Tass moves in from the wing to accommodate Johnston’s return.

Former St Helens scrum-half Lewis Dodd has been named in the final 19 but may again be made to wait for his Premiership debut as Jamie Humphreys retains the number-seven shirt.

Rugby League Odds

Trent Toelau has been favoured over Brad Schneider for Cleary’s vacated jersey as the two-time Clive Churchill Award winning misses out due to concussion protocols.

Schneider, another former Betfred Super League half-back with Hull KR in 2023, has been named on the bench as cover, while Daine Laurie comes in at full-back in the continued absence of Dylan Edwards.

Tom Jenkins, who replaced Edwards last week, reverts to the centres with Paul Alamoti moving to the wing and Casey McLean dropping to 18th player despite scoring in the 30-24 defeat in Melbourne.

Panthers by 1-12 points @ 21/10

The Panthers only just denied us a double last week as we took a 6/4 win on the Betfred Price Boost for the Storm being victorious a high-scoring contest, but a narrow loss as Penrith stayed just inside the handicap.

I think they’ll find it difficult again this week, especially without Cleary and Edwards, but they did show a resilience at AAMI Park long after the star half had left the field and I reckon they will pick up the points this time out.

The Panthers have played 138 games since they last lost three in succession back at the tail-end of the 2019 season, and I’m backing them to continue that excellent streak against a Rabbitohs side who were really poor out of the gate in the Shire in round three.

I was disappointed in what Bennett’s side offered against Cronulla, and I don’t see the firepower in their line-up to match what the Panthers proved they still carry even in defeat last week. They matched the Storm five tries to five, but it was only goalkicking which made the difference.

And I reckon they have the tries in them to have just enough to make this comfortable, with the 1-12 margin at 21/10 coming in at a 32.3% probability that I believe to be on the light side.

Total points Alt 2: Under 43.5 @ 13/8

The one area in which I think the Rabbitohs can hold great influence is in the score tally. While all three Panthers games so far have featured at least 50 points, the Bunnies’ matches have been more nip-and-tuck affairs.

Wayne Bennett doesn’t strike me as the type to respond to conceding five tries by upping the ante in attack. The former England and Brisbane Broncos coach will have been drilling his defence this week in a bid to make them harder to break down.

So I expect a toughened-up Rabbitohs to take the field at Accor on Thursday, and even if they do come out on the wrong end of the scoreboard they are unlikely to allow a ton of points in doing so.

The 13/8 offered by Betfred supposes a 38.1% probability of this being a sub-44-point contest and I’m happy to get behind that.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.