Spain vs Netherlands Prediction: Visitors may well shock reigning European Champs

Our Spanish football expert enjoyed a very profitable first leg of this tie on Thursday evening as his 1/1 and 11/10 shots both came in. Can he follow that up on Sunday nigh? He previews the encounter for us right here on Betfred Insights. Viewers can watch the match on Amazon Prime Video with kick-off set for 19:45.

Read on for Mark's Spain vs Netherlands Predictions as he expects another decent game with both goalkeepers having to pick the ball out of their own net at least once...

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After a very watchable 2-2 draw in Rotterdam on Thursday night, Spain and the Netherlands do it all again at Mestalla on Sunday, with a place in the 2025 UEFA Nations League Finals at stake for the victors.  

Spain head into the second leg of this quarter-final tie on a 22-match unbeaten run in competitive football. They've not lost since a miserable night in Glasgow two years ago, a performance so poor that many were left questioning whether the recently appointed Luis de la Fuente would even last long enough to spearhead La Roja's Euro 2024 challenge.  

As it turned out, De la Fuente not only rode out the storm, but would go on to lead Spain to glory in both the 2023 Nations League Finals, as well as at the Euros in Germany last summer.  

It has been a brilliant period for the Spanish national team. They've found a way to see off virtually every major force in European football over the past two years, but rarely have they looked as vulnerable as was the case at De Kuip earlier this week.  

Despite taking the lead early on through Nico Williams, Spain's most threatening player on the night, the visitors were second-best for much of the contest.  

Even without the injured Rodri, the defending European champions invariably dominate in the middle of the park, but that was not the case in Rotterdam. Midfielders Frenkie de Jong and Tijjani Reijnders excelled in a really strong all-round performance from Ronald Koeman's side.  

Cody Gakpo's powerful low drive levelled the game, before the impressive Jeremie Frimpong linked up with Reijnders who fired the Dutch in front just after the interval.  

Spain looked destined for their first competitive defeat since March 2023, but they gradually gained a foothold in the match, particularly after their hosts were reduced to 10 men on 81 minutes following a rash challenge from Jorrel Hato.  

La Roja snatched a leveller in stoppage time, with Mikel Merino showing all the instincts of the makeshift striker he has recently become at Arsenal, to pounce on a rebound and level the tie at 2-2.  

That in theory leaves Spain in a strong position to progress, but there was more than enough in a spirited Dutch performance on Thursday to suggest there is plenty of life left in this.  

The Netherlands haven't exactly pulled up any trees on the big stage in recent years, with their semi-final exit at Euro 2024 their best showing at a major tournament since they lost to Spain in extra time in the 2010 World Cup final.  

However, there finally looks to be a new generation emerging for Koeman to work with, and one defeat in seven matches so far in the 2024/25 season suggests they may be heading in the right direction.  

There was also a 2-2 home draw for the Dutch against rivals Germany in the group stage of this competition back in September. They could only muster up three attempts in the reverse fixture in Munich though, with that match ending in a 1-0 German victory.  

They'll need to ask more questions of an under-strength Spanish defence in Valencia on Sunday evening, if they're to stand a chance of progressing into the last four.  

Team News:  

Spain lost Pau Cubarsí to an injury in the first half in Rotterdam, and the Barcelona defender hasn't recovered so he won't feature on Sunday. He's set to be replaced by another teenager, with Bournemouth's Dean Huijsen expected to make his full debut against the country of his birth, following an assured performance off the bench in the first leg.  

Forward Ayoze Pérez is suspended for this game after picking up a yellow card on Thursday. De la Fuente may consider changes in midfield, with Merino and Dani Olmo both pushing for starts.  

As for the Netherlands, they'll have to cope without left-back Hato due to suspension. That will spark a slight reshuffle from Koeman who may consider using Frimpong at full-back in this game. The Dutch are slightly short on options in that department right now, with Jurriën Timber set to miss out again due to illness.  

Xavi Simons and Brian Brobbey are both in strong contention for starts, although Koeman won't want to change too much following an impressive first leg display.  

Spain vs Netherlands Odds

Spain are priced at 4/6 to win the match and 1/3 to win the tie. Alternatively, you can back the Netherlands to win in 90 minutes at 4/1, while they're priced at 9/4 to win the tie, with extra time and penalties to take place if needed. As is the case in European club competitions, the away goals rule is not enforced.  

If you're expecting La Roja to take care of business at Mestalla, you can also back Spain and Over 2.5 goals at 6/4. The home team are available at 9/4 to score over 2.5 goals on the night, while you can back Spain -1.00 Handicap at 7/4.  

The Dutch are gunning to spring a surprise, and they're priced at 7/4 to win either half of this match. You can back Over 1.5 away goals at 5/2, while you can back the Netherlands and Over 2.5 goals at 13/2.  

There are lots of potential goal threats in this game, and both sides should have some strong attacking options to call upon off the bench in the second half.  

Spain skipper Álvaro Morata is the 9/2 favourite to score first, while he can be backed at 6/4 to score anytime. First leg scorer Nico Williams is available at 5/2 to get on the scoresheet again, while you can back Lamine Yamal to score anytime at 23/10.  

From a visiting perspective, you can back Cody Gakpo to score anytime at 3/1, while Memphis Depay is available in the same market at 100/30.  

Bet 1 - Netherlands or Draw & Cody Gakpo 1+ shots on target @ 13/5  

For the first time in a long time, Spain were made to look vulnerable in the first leg, and they clearly aren't at their best defensively right now. Dani Carvajal and Aymeric Laporte are big absentees, and full-backs Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro both struggled on Thursday.  

If the Netherlands can play as well again, they've got every chance in this game and they are a side that has historically given Spain problems, with the Dutch not losing any of the last seven meetings in regulation time.  

They'll be looking to Gakpo, who had two shots on target in the first leg, and has scored 15 goals in 37 international appearances so far, to spearhead their attacking play again.  

The Liverpool man should be a big factor in this game, and I'm using the Bet Builder to back Netherlands or Draw and Cody Gakpo 1+ shots on target at 13/5.  

Bet 2 - Both teams to score @ 4/5  

The open nature of the first leg, with both sides looking better going forwards than in defence, suggests we should be in for another good game on Sunday evening in Valencia.  

As the home team, there'll be more onus on Spain to dominate in terms of possession and territory, and they have only failed to score on one occasion in their 14 matches since the start of Euro 2024.  

The visitors have plenty of pace with which to strike on the break though, and the way De Jong and Reijnders played in the first leg, it also seems safe to assume that there will be periods when they are on top in midfield too. 

Overall, I'm expecting another watchable affair, and I'm backing Both teams to score at 4/5. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...