Ecuador vs Venezuela Prediction: Home side can keep it clean again

We are back in South America to take a look at another big Conmebol qualifier as Ecuador host Venezuela, with kick-off at 21:00 UK time on Friday night. The hosts currently sit in third and can start to dream of the World Cup next summer if they win here, while Venezuela sit just one point behind Bolivia in seventh - the position that qualifies them for the play-off round. 

Below you can find my Ecuador vs Venezuela predictions featuring team news and betting tips as we search for a winner. 

Team News

Ecuador will be without Bayern Leverkusen’s Piero Hincapie for this one after he was sent off against Colombia back in November. That straight red card rules him out, while Ecuador also have some injuries to contend with in the form of Jhoanner Chavez, Angelo Preciado, Leonardo Campana and Alan Minda. 

Those four have all been left out of this squad by Sebastian Beccacece who will take charge of his seventh game having joined in August 2024. Former West Ham striker Enner Valencia will captain his country again as he closes in on 100 international appearances, while Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo and Brighton’s Pervis Estupinan will also play key roles. 

For Venezuela, they will rely heavily on their former Premier League striker Solomon Rondon, as he looks to add to the 45 goals he has scored for the national side. They also have some suspensions to deal with as Wilker Angel and Jon Aramburu will both serve one-match bans, while Yordan Osorio and Miguel Navarro have been ruled out through injury. 

Captain Tomas Rincon is now 37, but playing his football for Santos alongside Yeferson Soteldo. Meanwhile there are high hopes for young Inter Miami midfielder Telasco Segovia as he looks to add to the one goal he has scored in eight appearances so far. 

Ecuador vs Venezuela Odds

Ecuador are the heavy favourites to win this game, priced at 1/3. That gives them an implied win probability of 75% while Venezuela are available at 7/1. They’ve only won two games in this qualifying campaign, and a draw is priced at 16/5.

Over 2.5 goals is 6/5 and BTTS is 6/4, which could provide value for some punters given BTTS has come in during the last five Venezuela fixtures. Valencia is the favourite to score first at 3/1.

Ecuador to win to nil @ 9/10

A confident first selection at a short price. Ecuador have been outstanding this campaign based mainly on their incredible defensive record. They’ve conceded just four goals in their 12 matches so far, three fewer than table-toppers and World Cup winners Argentina for comparison. 

The 4-5-1 system they employ, with Caicedo sitting in front of the defence, seems to stifle the opposition and they are maximising every ounce of talent on that pitch. Third in the table, just one point below Uruguay in second, Ecuador are in a fantastic position to qualify for the World Cup. 

They should be able to beat a Venezuela side that has not won in their last eight, since beating Jamaica in the Copa America group stage last summer. They conceded four to Chile and three to USA last time out, so I don’t think they will be able to get the better of Ecuador, especially away from home. 

Enner Valencia to score an Ecuador to win 1-0 @ 16/1

Let’s go for a scorecast, following the pattern of what we have seen so far. Ecuador haven’t conceded a goal in any of their last five outings winning three of those games, two by one goal to nil. I think we will see another brutish and efficient display from the home side, and despite the fact that Venezuela’s matches tend to contain goals, I don’t think they have the quality to disrupt this near-perfect defence. 

Meanwhile, the most likely man to break the deadlock is without a doubt Valencia. He’s now at Internacional in Brazil and he’s consistently scored goals for club and country across his career. He’s got 44 goals in 95 games for his country and as he closes in on 100, he will fancy getting close to the 50-goal mark. I think this is a big price for a likely outcome. 

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