Croatia vs France Prediction: Dembele can Split Croatia and France

The 2020/21 Nations League champions France head to 2022/23 beaten finalists Croatia for the first leg of their quarter-final tie at 19:45 on Thursday. Sunday's second leg in Saint-Denis follows this rendezvous in Split and looks to be a clash of styles, with Vatreni expected to sit deep and control possession, while Les Bleus look best set to play with pace.

Didier Deschamps' January announcement that he will step down after the 2026 World Cup gives him licence to throw caution to the wind and give the attacking talent in his squad a chance to shine at Stadion Poljud. Below are my Croatia vs France predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Croatia are without midfielders Luka Sucic and Lovro Majer as well as attackers Igor Matanovic and Bruno Petkovic.

As ever, they have plenty of experience to call upon, with Luka Modric set to earn his 185th cap alongside fellow centurion Mateo Kovacic in midfield.

Football Odds

Marcus Thuram has pulled out with an ankle injury but Kylian Mbappe returns after being unavailable for France during the October and November international breaks.

Mbappe is likely to start in attack alongside the in-form Ousmane Dembele and either Randal Kolo Muani or Michael Olise.

Croatia vs France Odds

Croatia are 5/2, or a 28.6% chance, to win the first leg, with the draw 12/5 and France 11/10 (47.6%)  to triumph.

Vatreni won 1-0 in Saint-Denis the last time the pair met in 2022, and they are 10/1 to repeat that result. Meanwhile, a repeat of the French team's 4-2 win in the 2018 World Cup final is 66/1.

France to win @ 11/10

Deschamps came in for significant scrutiny after his team fell in the semi-finals of Euro 2024, with his unwillingness to go on the attack seen as the main reason for their failure in Germany.

The 56-year-old is old, wise, and successful enough not to take any notice, but this game is an opportunity to play with more positivity.

Croatia have a classy midfield but have struggled to produce a similar level of forward players, with Andrej Kramaric and Ante Budimir functional rather than fantastic options, whose best assets are often the ones they use to bring others into the game rather than score themselves.

With an attack featuring Mbappe, Dembele and potentially Kolo Muani over Olise due to the on-loan Juventus man's ability to provide space, Les Bleus can go big, and a 3-1 win is 16/1.

Ousmane Dembele anytime scorer @ 9/5

Speaking of Dembele, he looks to be emerging from his old friend's shadow. For all the criticism, the numbers say Mbappe is having a decent first season at Real Madrid, moving on to 20 La Liga goals in Los Blancos' 2-1 win over Villarreal.

However, his departure from Paris Saint-Germain has allowed Dembele to emerge and become the player he has threatened to be for the last decade.

He may usually start wide for the national team but could be allowed to drift around like he does for Paris Saint-Germain, a ploy that has helped him score 21 Ligue 1 goals after netting against Marseille on Sunday.

The 27-year-old also scored the only goal in PSG's win at Liverpool and has already scored 21 times in 2025, making his form almost too good to ignore.

Offers

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