Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers Prediction: Price Boost on champs to take another L

No fixture epitomises the top tier of NRL Premiership rugby league quite like the Melbourne Storm against the Penrith Panthers. And the clash which has accounted for two Grand Finals and two Preliminary Finals in the last five seasons plays out once more at AAMI Park on Thursday (09:00 GMT, 20:00 local).

The Storm were the last team to deny the all-conquering Panthers the title back in the 2020 GF, and they meet them here on the back of Penrith being ripped apart with regularity by the Sydney Roosters. Here are my Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers predictions, plus the latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers Odds

It’s not often you get such a long price for the Panthers winning a game of footy, but they are 12/5 to go to AAMI Park and return with the points in round three.

That damaging 38-32 reverse to the Roosters at CommBank Stadium last week has left fans and bookies alike questioning the champions’ readiness to extend their dominance over the rest of the field, and that price implies just a 29.4% probability of the Panthers winning on Thursday.

The Storm, as a result, are a narrow 1/3 for the win, with the draw marked at 22/1, so the best course of action for those believing it’s the home side’s game to lose may be to make the most of Betfred’s Price Boost.

It’s now 6/4 for the Storm to win in a contest featuring more than 44.5 points, boosted from 5/4.

Team News

Nelson Asofa-Solomona finally gets his shot at the Panthers, having been suspended for the Grand Final last year, although the powerhouse prop is initially included as a reserve only.

Craig Bellamy’s sole change from the massive 56-18 win over the Parramatta Eels in round one is to include Grant Anderson on the wing in place of concussion victim Will Warbrick.

The bye week in round two has helped to give the Storm the opportunity to rest any other knocks.

Rugby League Odds

For the Panthers there’s not just a shock loss to get over but also the absence of Dylan Edwards to contend with. The star full-back’s groin injury rules him out of this one, and it’s Daine Laurie who gets the nod to wear the number one.

Former Hull Kingston Rovers half-back Brad Schneider is added to the bench options, as is Isaiah Papali’i after his recovery from a hip problem.

Otherwise, Ivan Cleary is set to stick with the same players who were turned over in last week’s 70-point epic.

Storm win and over 44.5 total points @ 6/4

Talk of the Panthers being done might well be premature but they couldn’t have a tougher test this weekend on their hunt for a bounce-back win.

Last week at the CommBank they just couldn’t defend their line at any point, which is incredibly rare for a four-time back-to-back Premiership-winning outfit built on its solidity against the ball.

So coming out against a Storm side who were well on it from the off in week one against the Eels is a huge ask for Cleary’s team. Melbourne also have the benefit of the bye week behind them which means they’re coming in fresh.

I don’t do this lightly, but I’m counting on the Panthers being fairly porous again here. They were not at their sharpest in Las Vegas against the Cronulla Sharks three weeks ago, and while that could have been put down to the adrenaline of the occasion, they followed that up with a fairly shambolic performance in being turned over by the Roosters.

And while I might have them to respond positively against 75 per cent of the teams in this league, they’re not getting a soft landing at AAMI Park. I have the Storm to win it, and there should be points out there for last year’s losing Grand Finalists.

Betfred’s Price Boost makes it even more appealing, coming out at a 40% implied probability down from 44.4%.

Handicap 3-way: Storm -10 @ 11/10

While I’m not sure when I’d have last tipped the Panthers to lose by a couple of scores, I’m doing so today.

The Storm looked destructive against an admittedly weak-willed Eels defence, but Penrith were so shoddy across their defensive structure last week that I don’t see them fixing it up to the degree needed to challenge Melbourne at AAMI Park.

And the venue is a factor too. On their way to the Minor Premiership in 2024, the Storm were the best home team in the league with 10 wins from 12. And 12 months earlier they went 9-3 with home advantage, tying for the lead in that category.

Bellamy will have his side ready to make a statement, so I see them having at least two scores on the Storm to show up the 47.6% implied probability of the 11/10 odds.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.