Kosovo vs Iceland Prediction: Gudmundsson to poach one in Pristina

Kosovo finished as runners-up in Uefa Nations League Group C2 last year to set up a two-legged play-off tie with Iceland, who came third in their four-team Group B4 and must now overcome Dardanet to hold on to their second-tier standing.

Below are my Kosovo vs Iceland predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this first-leg contest at the Fadil Vokrri Stadium in Pristina on Thursday (19:45).

Team News

Kosovo goalkeeper Arijanet Muric (Ipswich Town) has only played twice for his club side since losing his number-one spot at the end of 2024 and has missed the Tractor Boys' last two games with a shoulder injury; however, the 26-year-old has been named in Franco Foda's squad for their March double-header with Iceland and the Switzerland-born shot-stopper will hope to add to his 42 international caps this month.

National team captain Amir Rrahmani (Napoli), Milot Rashica (Besiktas) and Vedat Muriqi (Real Mallorca) have also been called up by Foda, who is without Edon Zhegrova (Lille OSC), Florent Hadergjonaj (Alanyaspor) and Fisnik Asllani (SV Elversberg) due to injury.

Midfielder Muharrem Jashari (LNZ Cherkasy), who scored the only goal of the game in Kosovo's last game, a 1-0 win over Lithuania on November 18, is suspended on Thursday after receiving a red card in the same match.

Football Odds

Arnar Gunnlaugsson's Iceland squad features four England-based players in Hakon Valdimarsson (Brentford), Victor Palsson (Plymouth Argyle), Stefan Teitur Thordarson (Preston North End) and Willum Thor Willumsson (Birmingham City), while former Coventry City and Cardiff City midfielder Aron Gunnarsson (Al-Gharafa) continues to be called up at the ripe old age of 35.

Arguably the three biggest stars in the current Icelandic national team set-up - Albert Gudmundsson (Fiorentina), Orri Oskarsson (Real Sociedad) and Hakon Arnar Haraldsson (Lille OSC) - have all been brought into this month's camp.

However, ex-Reading, Swansea City, Tottenham Hotspur and Everton playmaker Gylfi Sigurdsson (Vikingur Reykjavik), who featured for his country against Wales last October, misses out.

Another vastly experienced international, former Charlton Athletic and Burnley winger Johann Berg Gudmundsson (Al-Orobah), who was absent from his club side's 6-0 hammering at Al-Shabab last Thursday, is also not named in Gunnlaugsson's squad.

Kosovo vs Iceland Odds

The hosts are 11/10 to take a lead to Rekyjavik for Sunday's second leg, implying a win probability of 52.4%, while Iceland are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to keep up their 100% record against Kosovo having beaten them twice in 2017.

The draw is priced at 11/5, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 6/5.

Kosovo's all-time leading goalscorer Muriqi, who has struck 28 times for his country, leads the anytime goalscorer market at 7/4, followed by international teammate Albion Rrahmani (2/1), who plies his trade in the Czech Republic with Sparta Prague.

Anytime Goalscorer - Albert Gudmundsson (ICE) @ 11/4

Kosovo kept three clean sheets in Nations League Group C2, shutting out both Cyprus (3-0) and Lithuania (1-0) in their last two games on home soil, but in theory, Iceland should represent a step up in class, certainly to those two aforementioned nations, posing a threat more akin to Romania, who beat Dardanet 3-0 in Pristina last September.

Iceland scored in all six of their Group B4 fixtures and registered multiple goals in four of those, a feat even more impressive when you consider Albert Gudmundsson, arguably their most talented player, didn't feature in the campaign due to injury. The 27-year-old had scored four goals in as many Euro qualifiers in the first half of the year and has at least four more international goals (10) than any other player named in Gunnlaugsson's squad this month.

The Fiorentina forward returned from injury on December 4 and took a while to hit his stride, scoring just two in 15 appearances between then and March 6, but he arrives into the Kosovan capital this week on the back of three goals in as many games for his club side, notching against Napoli, Panathinaikos and Juventus in the last two weeks.

After scoring in his last two international appearances, hitting a hat-trick against Israel and netting once against Ukraine last March, Albert Gudmundsson will look to make it three national team outings in a row with a goal on Thursday, and at 11/4, he provides great value to strike anytime in Pristina.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 10/11

Kosovo failed to score home or away against Romania but struck 10 times across their other four Nations League group games, winning all of them, while Iceland's only clean sheets in their campaign came against Montenegro (x2).

Our Boys shipped seven goals to Turkey, losing 3-1 away and 4-2 at home to the Crescent Stars, and gave up six to Wales, drawing 2-2 in Reykjavik and suffering a 4-1 defeat in Cardiff.

Encouragingly, they scored in all six group games, despite the absence of Albert Gudmundsson, who will boost their attacking options this month.

Kosovo have their own reliable goalscorer, Mallorca's Muriqi, who despite failing to hit the heights of 2022/23 when he struck 15 times in La Liga, is still going well in the Spanish top flight, netting seven goals in his first 23 league appearances this season. He also struck twice in his country's Nations League group and will be licking his lips at the chance of facing an Iceland side that shipped 13 goals in their own campaign; only Kazakhstan (15) conceded more in League B.

Both teams to score, therefore, appeals at just under EVS in this first-leg contest.

Offers

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