Tottenham Hotspur vs AZ Prediction: Home advantage to play its part

Tottenham Hotspur have got work to do if they are to win their Uefa Europa League round of 16 tie against AZ Alkmaar. They suffered a 1-0 defeat in the Netherlands last week and they welcome the Dutch side to north London on Thursday (20:00, TNT Sports 3) for the second leg.

There is pressure on Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou to progress far in this competition because their Premier League campaign has gone awry. Below you will find my Tottenham Hotspur vs AZ predictions, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

Tottenham Hotspur vs AZ Odds

Spurs won three of their four home games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the league phase and they are 1/2 to win in 90 minutes. You will find better value in backing the hosts to win to nil at 8/5 (implied probability of 38.5%), which was the method of all three of those victories.

They drew 2-2 with Roma here, in which was their most nervy game at home. If you think AZ can fight valiantly to earn a draw to send them through to the last-eight, the stalemate is on offer at 4/1.

It's 5/1 for the visitors to prevail in regulation time, which is likely because they are yet to win an away game in this competition in 2024/25.

Both teams to score has struck in their past three trips in the Europa League, though, which is marketed at 8/11 (57.9%) for Thursday.

Football Odds

Team News

Tottenham will have to cope without midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur on Thursday because his yellow card in Alkmaar has triggered a one-game suspension. It shouldn't cause too much concern for Postecoglou, though, as Yves Bissouma, Pape Matar Sarr, Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall are all available.

Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero could return at the heart of the back line after they both made their returns from injury on Sunday against AFC Bournemouth. This is also because Radu Dragusin (ACL) is sidelined and Ben Davies is recovering from a knock.

Dejan Kulusevski (foot) is the most notable absentee for Spurs at the moment, having contributed to 20 goals this season in all competitions. Richarlison (calf) is the other Tottenham attacker in the treatment room.

AZ suffered two blows in the first leg last week as Mayckel Lahdo was forced off inside the opening 10 minutes and his replacement, Denso Kasius, also had to be withdrawn early in the second half. Both are expected to miss the trip to London.

They join Sven Mijnans and Ruben van Bommel,  Jayden Addai and Mexx Meerdink on the sidelines. Former Tottenham man Troy Parrott gets a second trip to his former employers this term, and he will hoping he can inspire his team to victory, having bagged four goals in this competition to date.

Tottenham and both teams to score (in 90 mins) @ 15/8

Tottenham will be frustrated at going behind in the tie, but they will be thankful that the deficit is only one goal. They will back themselves to overturn that on home turf because it is here that we have seen the best of them in the Europa League this season.

All of their wins in N17 have seen them triumph without conceding. Some may think this trend can continue against an AZ side that are yet to win on their travels, but I think this could be a match with goals at both ends.

BTTS was a winning selection when Spurs played Roma here, which ended 2-2. Interestingly, AZ also faced the Italian side at home in the league phase, which they won 1-0.

The one stat that stands out for me is De Kaasboeren have blanked in just two of their 10 European fixtures this term. Yes, they may have both been away games, but I fancy their chances to score against Tottenham because the hosts have looked vulnerable at the back for much of the season, even if their home form in this competition doesn't show that.

Spurs have enough attacking options at their disposal to overturn the tie but I am expecting plenty of chances for the visitors.

Over 2.5 goals @ 4/7

Unlike the first leg, I predict there will be more goals on offer on Thursday. All but one of Tottenham's home matches in Europe have featured at least three goals, while three of their five appearances on the road went over 2.5 goals.

Additionally, three of AZ's away trips reached this threshold, so I believe this bodes well for the second leg.

Offers

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