Barcelona vs Benfica Prediction: Raphinha can score his 26th goal of the season

The early game on Tuesday evening in the Champions League comes from the Catalan Capital where Barcelona welcome Benfica to town and the hosts enjoy a one-goal lead heading into the second leg. TNT Sports 1 is the channel to tune into from 17:45.

Our La Liga Betting Expert got the call for this one as Mark Sochon takes us through the team news and the two sides with his Barcelona vs Benfica Predictions for us at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Barcelona take a 1-0 advantage into the second leg of their Champions League round-of-16 tie against Benfica. They are firm favourites to progress into the last eight on Tuesday night at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. 

It could have been so different had the Portuguese side been more clinical last week. Playing against 10 men after Pau Cubarsí's red card in just the 22nd minute, Benfica spent much of the game on top and had 26 attempts across the 90 minutes, with an inspired Wojciech Szczęsny making eight saves for the visitors. 

The Polish international was unconvincing initially having come out of retirement to join Barcelona in October, but he really repaid the faith that Hansi Flick has shown in him, with an outstanding display at the Estádio da Luz. 

Raphinha's fine strike, his ninth goal in nine Champions League games this season, leaves Barça firmly in the box-seat heading into the second leg, but there is still life in this tie and Benfica can take confidence from the sheer number of chances they have created across their two matches against this opposition so far this season. 

Barcelona were not in action on Saturday. The sudden passing of their first team doctor Carles Miñarro García, at the age of just 53, made it an upsetting weekend for everyone connected with the club, and led to the late postponement of their league game against Osasuna. 

There are sure to be tributes for Miñarro on Tuesday, as Barça look to become the first club to seal their quarter-final place in this season's Champions League. 

Flick's side take good form into the game, with seven wins from their last eight matches in all competitions. They remain unbeaten in 2025 and they've also won seven out of eight in the Champions League, not losing in Europe since their opening league phase match at Monaco way back in September. 

As for Benfica, they were comfortable 3-0 winners over Nacional in Liga Portugal on Saturday. Bruno Lage rested a number of his regulars, but there was never really any doubt about the outcome from the moment Zeki Amdouni fired his side ahead in just the fifth minute. 

Benfica have won five in a row in the league, to significantly close the gap to leaders Sporting, and as is the case across the border in Spain, there is a cracking title race brewing. 

It's going to take a titanic effort from Lage's players on Tuesday though, if their European campaign is not going to end under the lights of the Estadi Olímpic. 

Benfica have travelled really well in the Champions League this term, winning four of their five road games in the competition so far. They've won twice in Monaco and also defeated Juventus in Turin since their solitary away defeat against Bayern Munich in the league phase. 

That record has to give the visiting squad belief as they make the short trip across Iberia for this game. This task is a very steep one though, as they'll need to take some risks and chase goals as they bid to get back into the tie, a strategy which is likely to leave space for a free-scoring Barça side that is averaging 3.22 goals per game in the competition. 

Team News: 

After seeing red early on last week, for a rash challenge that denied Vangelis Pavlidis a clear goalscoring opportunity, 18-year-old Cubarsí will miss this game due to suspension. That's likely to mean a start for Ronald Araújo in central defence. 

Otherwise, Flick may opt to go with the same players that started the first leg. There are no fresh injury problems for the hosts, but Marc-André ter Stegen, Andreas Christensen and Marc Bernal are still sidelined. 

Benfica are also missing one player to suspension, as a result of Álvaro Carreras picking up another yellow card last Wednesday. They are missing Alexander Bah, Manu Silva and Tiago Gouveia to injuries, while the experienced Ángel Di María is also a major doubt. 

Pavlidis, Leandro Barreiro, Anatoliy Trubin and Kerem Aktürkoğlu are among the players likely to be recalled, having dropped to the bench at the weekend in the league. 

Barcelona vs Benfica Odds

Barcleona the 4/11 favourites to win on the night, while they are very short at 1/25 to win the tie overall. The Draw is priced at 9/2, while you can back Benfica to win the second leg at 13/2, and win the tie at 9/1. 

Having not played at the weekend, Barça should be fresh to go here, and if you're expecting them to breeze into the quarter-finals, you can back Barcelona -1.00 Handicap at 5/6. The hosts are also priced at 5/6 to score over 2.5 goals in this game, while you can back the Catalans to win both halves at 9/5. 

Benfica's strong Champions League away record may tempt some punters into backing the visitors to win either half at 11/5. You can back Benfica to score over 1.5 goals at 2/1, while Both teams to score is on offer at 8/15. 

The home team should have all of their regular front three starting, and you can back Robert Lewanowski to score first at 3/1. He's also priced at 7/10 to score anytime. Meanwhile, Lamine Yamal is available at 19/10 to register an assist in this game. 

From a visiting perspective, Pavlidis is likely to be the chief goal threat. The Greek international had no fewer than six shots in the first leg, and he's priced at 1/1 to have 3+ shots in this game. You can also back Pavlidis to score anytime at 21/10. 

Bet 1 - Barcelona over 1.5 goals & Benfica most booking points @ 21/20 

The first leg was largely conditioned by that early red card, but we did get nine goals when these clubs met in the league phase, and there should be more chances in this game for Barcelona, given Benfica will have to come out and take risks at some stage. 

In many respects, that's the ideal situation for a Barça side that thrives when it has space to play in, and they ought to kill this tie off, having already done the hard work in Lisbon. 

Flick will want his players to avoid any unnecessary bookings with potentially five more games to come in the competition. Only two sides received fewer cards in the league phase than the Catalans, and I'm using the Bet Builder to back Barcelona over 1.5 goals & Benfica most booking points at 21/20 here. 

Bet 2 - Raphinha to score anytime @ 21/20 

Raphinha has been one of the standout performers in the Champions League this season. The ex-Leeds winger averages a goal every 83 minutes in the competition, with three of his nine strikes coming against Benfica. 

He's now on 25 goals in all competitions this term, wth the Brazilian emerging as an unlikely Ballon d'Or candidate. The 28-year-old is clearly thriving on the left flank in this Barça side and he's likely to be one of the main beneficiaries if and when this game opens up and becomes more stretched.  

I'm backing Raphinha to score anytime at 21/20 which would see him move into double figures in the Champions League this season. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...