Burnley vs Luton Prediction: Can the Hatters get out of danger?

It’s pretty wild to think that this was a Premier League fixture just last season. Now, Burnley and Luton sit at opposite ends of the Championship table, both in desperate need of three points to achieve their goals this term. The pair meet at Turf Moor at 15:00 with Luton currently occupying the final relegation spot, and Burnley now just two points behind Sheffield United in second. 

All signs point towards a home win, but below you can find my Burnley vs Luton predictions. 

Team News

Aaron Ramsey looks to be getting ever closer to a return for Burnley after his ACL injury but he is probably not going to be included in this squad as the club take their time with his introduction back into the first-team. Nathan Redmond and Mike Tresor also remain out while Bashir Humpreys is in the treatment room with a quad issue.

Football Odds

That means that rock-solid back four was broken up against Cardiff in midweek, with Lucas Pires simply not of the same quality as the first-choice left-back. Burnley conceded their first goal in 12 matches in Cardiff as a result, but following victory, Scott Parker is likely to stick with a back four that has served him so well this term. 

Jeremy Sarmiento is an option off the bench but that front four looks like it picks itself right now, with Jaidon Anthony and Marcus Edwards providing the width and Hannibal Mejbri playing in support of Zian Flemming. 

For Luton boss Matt Bloomfield, he is likely going to play things safe having finally got his first win with his new club. The 1-0 success over Portsmouth means he should name an unchanged XI, with the back three of Christ Makosso, Kal Naismith and Amari’i Bell all doing well, flanked by Alfie Doughty and Isiaih Jones. 

Jacob Brown should continue to partner Carlton Morris up front, leaving Elijah Adebayo on the bench, while Marc McGuinness also provides a strong defensive option to be called upon if needed. Daiki Hashioka, Reece Burke and Shandon Baptiste all remain out injured. 

Burnley vs Luton Odds

Burnley are priced at 4/7 to win this game on home soil which gives them an implied win probability of 63%. Luton can be backed at 11/2 to get only their second away win of the season, but they did find victory against Portsmouth at Kenilworth Road in their last outing. 

A draw is 11/4, while over 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/4 having come in during just 23% of Burnley’s games this term. BTTS is the same price while Flemming is 5/1 to score first having hit the net seven times this season.

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/13

I’m going to back this to be a tight encounter with relatively few goals at the Turf. Luton looked far more solid in their 1-0 success over Pompey but Bloomfield has made them more frugal at both ends, even if they’ve been on the wrong side of several results. In fact, in Luton’s last seven Championship outings there have been fewer than 2.5 goals, so I’m very confident in this selection given they are coming up against Parker’s Burnley. 

Burnley sit bottom of the table for over 2.5 goals success this term, with just 8 of their 35 fixtures containing three or more goals. With the stats on our side and neither side particularly exciting to watch, I think the under 2.5 goals price of 8/13 is still worth backing.

Burnley 0-0 Luton @ 8/1 

I think it’s worth us putting a small tipple on the 0-0 as well. I’ve already explained my reasoning for this being a low-scoring affair, and I just feel that Luton may have developed a bit of a backbone over the last week. They’ve still got plenty of work to do to get out of danger but the Hatters would snap your hand off for a point here. 

Burnley have already broken the record for the most 0-0s in a Championship season, and they’ve extended that total to 11 for the campaign. With a long way to go, I’m expecting a few more stalemates between now and the end of the season - and I think we are getting a big price on the 0-0 here! 

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