Barcelona vs Real Sociedad Prediction: Barca to edge low-scoring affair

It’s a busy period in the year for Barcelona and Real Sociedad who meet on Sunday at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, with both sides in Copa del Rey semi-final action in midweek, while both have big European games a few days after this.

Both teams are expected to rotate their lineups, and that’s not surprising given it’s already Barcelona’s 15th match of 2025, while it’s outing number 16 of this calendar year for La Real.

Read on for our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon's Barcelona vs Real Sociedad predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

It’s a busy period in the year for Barcelona and Real Sociedad who meet on Sunday at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, with both sides in Copa del Rey semi-final action in midweek, while both have big European games a few days after this.

Both teams are expected to rotate their lineups, and that’s not surprising given it’s already Barcelona’s 15th match of 2025, while it’s outing number 16 of this calendar year for La Real.

If this match is as good as Barça last, it’ll certainly be worth tuning in for. There were eight goals in this stadium on Tuesday night, shared equally between Hansi Flick’s side and Diego Simeone’s Atlético Madrid. The Catalans actually scored four unanswered goals between the 10th and 80th minutes of that match, but lapses in concentration at the beginning and the end contributed to a final score of 4-4.

The second leg of that tie is no less than five weeks away, and the focus for Barça over a busy final fortnight before the international break will be trying to hold on to top spot in La Liga, whilst safely negotiating their Champions League round-of-16 tie against Benfica.

Having lost four of their final nine matches in 2024, Barça are unbeaten in 14 games so far in 2025, winning 11 of them. While there have still been a few big wins, the league leaders have been doing a better job of grinding out victories in matches when they’ve not found top gear since the turn of the year.

Their last two home matches in La Liga have produced 1-0 wins over Alavés and Rayo Vallecano, while it took more than an hour for them to break the deadlock in a 2-0 victory at lowly Las Palmas last weekend.

Substitutes Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres came off the bench to score the decisive goals in that game, and with their early-season injuries having mostly cleared up, Flick certainly has more options to call upon, should he need to inject some energy into matches after the interval.

Real Sociedad boss Imanol Alguacil has also had little choice but to utilise his squad over the past two months, with the Basque side involved in the Europa League play-off round, whilst also progressing into the last four of the Copa del Rey.

He named a very strong team against Real Madrid in the first leg of their semi-final in that competition on Wednesday. The 53-year-old would have been looking for his side to make the most of home advantage and take a lead to the Bernabéu, but it wasn’t to be with Endrick scoring the only goal for Los Blancos.

La Real had chances in that match, but they were wasteful in front of goal which has tended to be the way of things this season. Even after a 3-0 home win over struggling Leganés last weekend, they’ve still only scored 23 goals in 25 league matches.

That’s the fourth worst record in La Liga, and a pretty miserable return for a side that was playing Champions League football as recently as last season.

Only three teams have a better defensive record than Imanol’s side though, so they are still firmly in the race for European places, but they've been very inconsistent with nine wins and seven defeats in all competitions since their last draw which was way back in December against Las Palmas.

They can take a bit of confidence from an impressive 1-0 win over Barcelona at the Reale Arena earlier this term. However, they have lost their last four on their travels in La Liga, and they have a desperate record in this fixture, losing 25 of their last 26 away games against Barça in La Liga.

Team News:

Robert Lewandowski is expected to rotate back in for the home team, after the Pichichi leader dropped to the bench in the Copa del Rey. Flick will most likely make a number of changes from the cup lineup, although it’s unclear whether he’ll use this game to rest key players like Pedri and Lamine Yamal ahead of the Champions League trip to Benfica.

Marc-André ter Stegen, Marc Bernal and Andreas Christensen are all sidelined due to injuries.

As for Real Sociedad, Imanol could change the majority of the side that lost to Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey, with one eye on Thursday’s Europa League showdown against Manchester United in San Sebastián.

Some of those changes will be enforced, with Nayef Aguerd, Take Kubo and Sheraldo Becker all suspended for this game. The visitors are also missing Arsen Zakharyan and Jon Pacheco to injuries.

Barcelona vs Real Sociedad Odds

Given the one-sided history of this fixture, it’s little surprise to see Barcelona priced at 1/4 to win. You can back the Draw at 5/1, while Real Sociedad are available at 11/1 to complete the double over Flick’s side.

If you’re expecting goals, you can back Both teams to score at 11/10, while Over 3.5 goals is on offer at 6/4. You can also get odds of 8/11 for Barcelona to win and Over 2.5 goals.

The Catalans have tended to either win very big, or just scrape by in their La Liga games this season. They’ve scored four or more on eight occasions already in the league, and you can back Over 3.5 home team goals at 3/1 here, while Barcelona are available at 15/8 with a -2.00 Handicap.

If you see it going the other way, and the visitors competing well across the 90 minutes, you can back Real Sociedad +2.00 Handicap at 1/1.

After a midweek rest in a game he still came off the bench to score in, Lewandowski is the obvious choice in the goalscorer markets here. He’s priced at 11/4 to score first and 8/11 to score anytime.

Many of the other attacking stars from both sides who could feature are at risk of being rested, but you can back Raphinha to score anytime at 5/4, while Real Sociedad’s young striker Orri Óskarsson is on offer at 7/2 to get on the scoresheet.

Barcelona to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 21/20

This game may lack the intensity of the meeting earlier in the season, with both sides looking to conserve energy ahead of crucial European ties.

Of the two, it’s likely to be Real Sociedad who will field a side that is furthest from their usual lineup. That’s not just a result of their three suspensions, but also the reality that this is a fixture they invariably lose regardless of who is on the pitch.

Having played 15 games in the first two months of 2025, Imanol has little choice but to prioritise certain fixtures over others, and I’m not expecting much from La Real in this game, although they should still be relatively organised defensively.

Every single Real Sociedad game in La Liga this season has ended with three or fewer goals, and I’m backing Barcelona to win and Under 3.5 goals at 21/20 here.

Draw/Barcelona (HT/FT) @ 3/1

It seems likely that Flick will rest at least one or two of his main attacking and creative players, but he’ll certainly have a strong bench to call upon should Barça need to go chasing a goal after the interval.

They have tended to start quite slowly in recent matches and were two down inside six minutes against Atlético Madrid in midweek, while three of their last four league games have been level at the break.

Barça went on to draw against Atleti, while they’ve won their last five in La Liga, so they are growing into games and ultimately finding a way to break defensive teams down. Given that, I think there’s value in backing Draw/Barcelona at 3/1 in the Half-time/Full-time market.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish football writers on our La Liga homepage...