Preston vs Burnley Prediction: Not another 0-0, I can’t!

The FA Cup fifth round graces our screens this weekend, and we’ve got a Lancashire derby coming our way on Saturday lunchtime. Preston host Burnley at 12:15, live on BBC iPlayer, as a Championship club will have a place in the quarter-finals for the fifth-consecutive season. 

These two only met two weeks ago at Deepdale in the league, when Burnley kept yet another clean sheet in a 0-0 draw. Their run of clean sheets doesn’t actually continue in the FA Cup, as the Clarets beat Reading 3-1 in the third round to reach this stage. That remains the only goal they’ve conceded in 2025. Below you can find my Preston vs Burnley prediction as the Championship rivals collide. 

Team News

These two faced each other on the very first day of the Football League back in 1888, and have since met 141 times, but amazingly they’ve never played in the FA Cup - until now. It will be interesting to see the changes each manager makes heading into this one, with Burnley clearly having bigger fish to fry in terms of promotion. 

For Preston, they are already safe in the Championship and sit too far away from the play-off to have a real go at things. Therefore, I can see Paul Heckingbottom naming his strongest possible XI for this derby game, although he does have plenty of injury issues to contend with.

Football Odds

Mads Fronkjaer-Jensen missed the game at Coventry last time out and could also be absent here as he attempts to recover from a knock. Duane Holmes is definitely out with a broken leg, as is Jordan Storey who picked up an ankle issue v Blackburn. Jack Whatmough is unlikely to be seen again before next season, while Ben Whiteman has been out for a month. 

Jordan Beyer is out long-term for Burnley while Bashir Humphreys has a quad issue and is unlikely to be risked. Aaron Ramsey is on his way back but not quite fit yet, while Mike Tresor also remains out of action. Humphreys’ injury means that the phenomenal back four will be broken up, with Lucas Pires in pole position to retain his place at left-back, having also started in the 4-0 win over Sheffield Wednesday. 

Vaclav Hladky could start in goal in place of James Trafford, while Joe Worrall could also do with some minutes in defence. Having scored off the bench last time out, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Manuel Benson given a start after his injury, while Jonjo Shelvey and Lyle Foster will also be targeting starting berths. 

Preston vs Burnley Odds

Preston have been priced up at 13/5 to get the win in 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 27%. Burnley are the favourites at 5/4, while a draw can be backed at 21/10 and could be the value pick given both league fixtures this season have ended all square. 

Over 2.5 goals have come in during just 21% of Burnley’s fixtures this season, and that is priced at 13/8 to come in during normal time in this one. BTTS is also the healthy price of 6/5, but I wouldn’t be backing that, and you’ll hear why shortly. Burnley’s Zian Flemming is the favourite to open the scoring at 13/2. 

Burnley to keep a clean sheet @ 5/4

CTRL+C, CTRL+V. Even though I’m expecting a couple of changes at the back, the philosophy of Scott Parker simply doesn’t change. I don’t know how many times we can continue to back this selection, and I feel like I’m repeating myself every week, but we just keep on backing the winners. 

Most recently we backed Burnley to keep a clean sheet against Sheffield Wednesday and they duly obliged with their 12th consecutive Championship clean sheet in a row. They are edging closer to Manchester United’s league record of 14 and although that is not at risk on Saturday, it feels likely that they will be able to keep PNE at bay. 

They’ve done it already twice in the league this season, and the players that could come into their team are still top Championship players. I think we are getting excellent value and am more than happy to back Burnley to keep another clean sheet here. 

Preston 0-0 Burnley @ 6/1

As Eddie Hearn would say “OH, GO ON THEN”. Burnley and Preston have met twice already in the Championship this season, and both of those league fixtures have ended 0-0, with the most recent battle ending goalless at Deepdale just two weeks ago. These two just seem to cancel each other out and in front of a hostile crowd on Saturday, I can see both teams being up for the fight.

Milutin Osmajic will be under the spotlight after Hannibal Mejbri claimed he had been racially abused by the Montenegrin two weeks ago, and I can see things kicking off again here, so the cards market may be worth exploring as well. However, we will stick with backing the 0-0. Eight of Preston's last 12 home matches have been draws in 90 minutes, while four of Burnley’s last nine fixtures have ended 0-0. 

With extra-time and penalties a possibility, I think this is the way to go in 90 minutes. 

Offers

Friday/Saturday: Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any FA Cup or Championship game on Friday or Saturday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Sunday’s games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)

Saturday: Build your own Bet Builder bet (3/1+) of 4+ legs on any FA Cup game on Saturday and get 50% of your stake back in Free Bets up to £5 if you lose. (Credited within 24 hours)

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

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