Bangladesh vs New Zealand Prediction: Double money on Mitchell

It's Bangladesh against New Zealand in the second round of Group A matches of the Champions Trophy on Monday, start time of 09:00, with live coverage on Sky Sports Cricket.  

Jamie Pacheco is about to tell you why Daryl Mitchell should be in the runs while Michael Bracewell is underrated for top bowler honours.

Bangladesh vs New Zealand Odds

New Zealand are 1/5, implied probability 83%. Bangladesh are 100/30, which translates to 23%.  

The Bangladesh price comes with the warning that there are two or three weak links and those would have to perform better than they usually do if Bangladesh are to win this.  

But the 1/5 on New Zealand is fraught with danger, too. If Bangladesh can bat first and get to 300 somehow and take a couple of early wickets, which they weren’t able to do against India, scoreboard pressure may give the Black Caps some nerves. Betting a fiver on them to win a quid? No, not for us. 

Cricket Odds

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Bangladesh  

The Tigers were well beaten by India in Dubai, but they shouldn’t feel too bad about it; they won’t be the only ones that happens to over the course of the tournament, far from it.  

And good on Towhid Hridoy, who got to 100. Not many batsmen get to say that when playing against this excellent India bowling attack.  Jaker Ali batted well for his 68, though it was a little on the slow side, needing 114 balls to get there. 

With the ball, Rishad Hossain was superb with his 2-38 off 10 overs against some of the best willow men in the game.  

The problem with Bangladesh, as ever, is that two or three players might perform on the day but rarely nine or ten, which of course is what  

you need if you’re looking to beat the best.  

The good news at least is that they’ve got their toughest game out of the way already. They’re likely to remain unchanged from the India game unless veteran Mahmadullah comes in.  

Possible XI: Tanzid, Sarkar, Shanto, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Hridoy, Rahim, Ali, Hossain, Tanzim Hasan Shakib, Taskin, Mustafizur.  

New Zealand  

It hasn’t been the easiest of tournaments to call so far but at least we were on the money in predicting that the Kiwis would beat Pakistan. 11/10 wasn’t the biggest price but they were still outsiders, so we’re pretty happy with that.

The rationale was pretty simple. This is an excellent side who have just about every base covered in terms of playing resources and have been handling the big occasions far better than in yesteryear. Those two qualities alone are going to see you win plenty of matches.  

The underrated Will Young and the previously out-of-form Tom Latham both hit centuries but just as important was the quickfire 61 off 39 from Glenn Phillips. With the ball it was a typical New Zealand team effort. Six players bowled, five of them took wickets.   

With an almost perfect performance like that, they’d be crazy to change their team, meaning Rachin Ravindra (who missed the match as he was still recovering from being concussed) will have to wait for his chance. If it comes, it’s more likely to be for Devon Conway now, than centurion Young.   

Possible XI: Young, Conway, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Henry, O’Rourke.  

Pitch and conditions   

We’re at Rawalpindi for the first time in the tournament so we don’t have anything to go by in that regard.  

There have been 26 ODIs played here over the years, the most recent of which was in 2023. Set a huge 337 to win by New Zealand, Pakistan chased it with 10 balls to go. Daryl Mitchell made 129 and Latham 98, so those are two who may be in the runs again.  

Two days earlier Pakistan chased 289, also against New Zealand. Mitchell made 113 in that one too so you can see the man enjoys batting here.   

So, it’s clearly a really good wicket, something we also witnessed in the recent Pakistan v England Test series. 300 will be seen as the bare minimum batting first if it’s New Zealand doing it, but Bangladesh may struggle to get to that against this bowling attack.  

2pts Back Daryl Mitchell Over 30.5 runs @ 5/6

Sadly, the Betfred odds-compilers aren’t oblivious to the fact that Mitchell would love to bat on this pitch every day if he could, after those back-to-back hundreds here a couple of years ago.   

Only the great Williamson (3/1) is a shorter price than Mitchell’s 7/2 and with the obvious danger that someone could be on 100 against a weak bowling attack by the time he arrives at the crease; so we have to swerve him on that market.  

 But we certainly don’t have to swerve him in his own market. The traders are going 5/6 that he can score 31 runs or more. It would be a huge shock if he wasn’t around for at least 15-20 overs given he bats at four, obviously loves playing at Rawalpindi and shouldn’t have too much to fear about this Bangladesh bowling attack.  In what is a real rarity for this column, we’re having a 2-point bet on him.

1pt Back Michael Bracewell Top New Zealand Bowler @ 4/1

We noted that Michael Bracewell, probably more of a batting all-rounder normally than a bowling one, got through 10 overs against Pakistan, returning good figures of 1-38. Sure, Nathan Smith was expensive at the start of his spell so only bowled two, allowing Bracewell to bowl his full quota. That won't always happen.  

But what might happen is that Bangladesh are bowled out before the 45th over or so and that whereas the spinners get through all their overs, the quicks don't bowl all of theirs at the death.  This did happen against Pakistan.   

Either way, 4/1 is a decent price given what we've said.