Football Accumulator Tips: Jamie’s Cross-European Weekend Treble

A very near miss last time out where just one goal was the difference between success and failure but Jamie Pacheco is still in profit for the year and looking to improve on that, so let's see what's in store at this week's 3-3-3 column.   

His selections come from Italy, Portugal and France. One on Saturday with the other two on Sunday's slate. Check out his Football Accumulator Tips for this weekend below...

Welcome to the 3-3-3 betting column. Why is it called that? Glad you asked.  It’s not a formation to play when you’ve had a man sent off but rather: 

3 - The number of different selections making up the acca. 

3 - The number of different (non-English) European Leagues the selections are taken from every week. 

3 - The minimum odds (3/1) or 4.0 if you prefer, that the acca will come to it every week. 

And it really is as simple as that. The selections can be from any betting markets, as long as they meet the criteria set out above.  And to round things off, every week I’ll leave you with a cool (or at least I think so) bit of trivia involving one of the teams featured in the acca. Simples... 

Current P and L: +0.607pts  

A close call last time out. We easily got the bookings points we needed in Strasbourg v Lille, while there were no slip-ups at a short price for Real Madrid.  

But Empoli v Bologna produced just two goals rather than the three we needed despite the second goal of the match being scored just before half-time meaning we had the whole of the second-half to get one, but it never came.  

A shame but we’re still currently in profit for the season, which is what matters most. Let’s try and make sure that carries on being the case.  

Lille v St Etienne  

Saturday, February 1 20:05 

Selection: (Yes) Both Teams to Score @ 1/1 (Evens) 

This probably isn’t the first match many of you will be rushing to check out this weekend in normal circumstances but given our selection here is at odds of evens, it’s the most important (well, they’re all important but you know what I mean) part of the 3-3-3 punt. That’s because including it at those larger-than-usual odds gives us the luxury of including a third selection at shorter odds and still meeting the requirements of the column.  

And our pick is that there will be goals at both ends. Lille have a 78% strike rate for BTTS in home matches, including each of their last three, while St Etienne are bang on the 50% mark.  

That alone suggests that there’s a bit of value about the price but it’s the fact that BTTS has also been a winner in each of Lille’s last four matches in all competitions that really convinces us.  

AC Milan v Inter Milan   

Sunday, February 2, 17:00  

Selection: Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5  

In Italy, it’s the Milan Derby over the weekend, which is always one to look out for.  

The concept of two huge clubs sharing a stadium, which happens with both the two big Milan clubs as well as the two Rome ones, is one that has always intrigued me.   

Why don’t they each have their own? If they had a second stadium in the city built now, how would they decide which team played in which stadium: a coin toss?  A few unanswered questions there but here’s the one I’m really interested in: will the game produce at least three goals in it? 

The evidence is that it should. Milan have just a 45% strike rate of ‘overs’ matches at home this season but here’s where things get interesting. In ‘physical’ terms, Inter are playing at home so the 63% overs win rate for them bodes well but ‘technically’ they’re away from home, so the 70% for over 2.5 goals away games is also to be taken into consideration.  

All four of the last Derbies between these two had gone ‘overs’ with scores of 5-1, 1-2, 1-2 and 2-3 so that settles it for us: goals are on the cards.  

Estrela v Benfica 

Sunday, February 2 20:30  

Selection: Back Over Away 1.5 Goals @ 4/11      

And we round things off with our third selection that as we know, is at shorter odds than usual because the first two were at around the even money mark.  

Benfica put in one of their best performances in a long time in midweek, beating Juventus 2-0 in Turin to secure their place in the Playoffs where they will face Monaco.  

Win that and…well…there’s not much to look forward to in a good way because it will either be Liverpool or Barcelona after that, which won’t be much fun. But they’ll cross that bridge if and when they come to it and more to the point, the prize money secured just by being in the Playoffs (and a lot more of it if they beat Monaco), will make a huge difference to their dire finances.  

Quite how a club that has sold players like Enzo Fernandez, Joao Felix, Darwin, Ruben Dias, Goncalo Ramos (to name but a few) for absolute fortunes in the last few years can be in such debt, I don’t know. Then again, I don’t know how lottery winners end up worse off than they were before they won the lottery, so I’m clearly no expert on these matters. 

Either way, I’m far more interested in the 4/11 that Benfica will score at least two goals here. Their last five games against Estrela ended (Benfica score first): 7-0, 1-0, 4-1, 2-0- and 4-0 so that’s 4/5 that would have been a winner for over 1.5 away goals.  

Benfica had a shocker last weekend at Casa Pia, losing 3-1, but you get the feeling that Juve game was very much on their minds ahead of that one.  They’ll certainly be confident and in the mood for this one so we really should see them score twice.  

James’ Fun Fact  

Enzo Fernandez was Benfica’s most expensive signing ever when they purchased him from River Plate for 44 million Euros in the summer of 2022.

Just six months later and after some brilliant performances at the 2022 World Cup, which Argentina won, he also became their second most expensive sale of all time, going to Chelsea for 121 million Euros.

Interestingly, the only Benfica man to have gone for more than Enzo was Joao Felix (127.2 million to Atletico Madrid) who is now a team-mate of Enzo’s, at Chelsea.