Auckland vs Macarthur Prediction: Black Knights to hold firm against raging Bulls

Australian A-League Men's leaders Auckland, who boast the competition's strongest home record this season, face a tough test of their credentials at Go Media Stadium on Saturday (04:00, TNT Sports 1) against Macarthur, a side seeking their fifth straight away win.

Below is my Auckland vs Macarthur prediction, together with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Dan Hall (broken ankle) is Auckland's only major injury absentee, with the rest of the squad fit and firing after a three-game unbeaten run which has seen them beat Melbourne City (3-0) and Western Sydney Wanderers (0-1) either side of a 2-2 draw with Adelaide United.

Colombian attacker Neyder Moreno has developed something of a reputation as a super sub for Auckland, scoring four times from the bench since joining as a free agent from Atletico Nacional in the off-season. Two of those strikes came last week as he opened the scoring in Adelaide on January 22 before netting in the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time in Sydney.

Steve Corica may opt to reward the 27-year-old's form with a start on Saturday, but it's probably more likely that he will stick with a winning formula and look to let Moreno loose again in the second period.

Football Odds

Macarthur's fine start to the season has come at a cost as the form of their youngsters has attracted interest overseas, culminating in the recent exits of Ariath Piol (Real Salt Lake), Oliver Jones (Randers) and Jed Drew (TSV Hartberg). Drew, in particular, will be a big loss for the Bulls after scoring six times and registering seven assists, the most recent of which came in last Saturday's 1-0 win over Melbourne City, in 13 ALM appearances this season.

Dino Arslanagic also departed the club this month following off-field issues.

Macarthur have at least made one move the other way, bringing in 29-year-old midfielder Peter Makrillos on a deal until the end of the season. The Australian plied his trade most recently at South Korean side Suwon Samsung Bluewings, for whom he made 14 league appearances.

On the injury front, Liam Rose (foot) will miss a second successive match after being withdrawn 10 minutes into his side's defeat to Wellington Phoenix (1-2) on January 20.

Auckland vs Macarthur Odds

Auckland have dropped just five points from 21 on offer at home in their inaugural ALM campaign, winning five of their seven games at Go Media Stadium, and are appropriately priced at 8/11 to secure a sixth success on home soil this weekend and do the double over the Bulls having won 1-0 at Campbelltown Stadium in November. The Black Knights are offered an implied win probability of 57.9% against Macarthur, who are 3/1, or a 25% chance, to chalk up a sixth victory on their travels this term.

The draw is priced at 13/5, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Auckland's Uruguayan centre-forward Guillermo May (6/4) is favourite in the anytime goalscorer market followed by strike partner Max Mata (8/5), who opened his ALM account in the New Zealand club's 3-0 victory over Melbourne City on January 18. Veteran Bulls forward Valere Germain, who with seven league goals is behind only Sydney's Joe Lolley (eight) in the Golden Boot charts, is first up in the market for the visitors at 21/10.

To Win to Nil - Auckland @ 23/10

At the time of writing, only Sydney (32) and Adelaide United (31) have struck more ALM goals this season than Macarthur (29), who have only blanked twice in 15 games and not since a goalless draw at Western United on December 7.

However, both Drew and Piol, at least one of whom has had a direct hand (goal or assist) in 10 of Macarthur's last 13 goals, have left the club, with the Bulls now considerably weakened in the attacking areas.

Germain remains, as does four-goal forward Marin Jakolis, but the latter, who started the season on fire, hasn't scored in any of his last 11 appearances, and Bernardo Oliveira (one goal), Christopher Ikonomidis, Harrison Sawyer and Daniel De Silva (two goals, one assist) have contributed to just four goals between them this term.

Auckland are one of two teams that have denied Macarthur from scoring this season and the Black Knights will be even more confident of shutting their opponents out this time around with no Piol to contend with (Drew wasn't in the squad for the reverse fixture).

Saturday's hosts kept their eighth clean sheet of the campaign in last Sunday's win at the Wanderers, two more than the next best (Melbourne City and Wellington Phoenix, both six).

Corica's charges shipped four goals at home in a 4-0 defeat to Western United on December 21 but that remains their only loss in New Zealand and they've won five of their other six games at Go Media Stadium, four of them to nil, and also kept a clean sheet in a goalless draw with Melbourne Victory there on New Year's Day.

The Bulls may take some time to get used to life after Drew, and I think Auckland can take advantage of that this weekend, beating their visitors and keeping them out at the back.

Highest Scoring Half - Second Half @ 1/1

Half (seven) of Auckland's games this season have seen more goals scored in the second half compared to five for the first half, and there hasn't been a goal before the interval in their last two matches.

Like the Black Knights, seven of Macarthur's contests this term have seen the second half emerge as the highest-scoring half, compared to four for the first half.

I'm not anticipating many goals in this game, as underlined by my first tip, which has the Bulls failing to breach the hosts' defence.

Thirteen (59.1 per cent) of Auckland's 22 goals this season have been scored in the second half while of the 20 Macarthur have conceded, 14 (70 per cent) have come after half-time.

Offers

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