Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05 Prediction: A Friday night goalfest at the Weserstadion

After finishing 13th and narrowly avoiding a relegation play-off on the final day last season, Mainz have emerged as one of the surprise packages of the Bundesliga this term, claiming 31 points from their first 19 games - just four fewer than they managed in the entire 2023/24 campaign.

Bo Henriksen's side have lost just three of their last 12 matches, winning seven of them, and only Bayern Munich (31), Bayer Leverkusen (28) and Eintracht Frankfurt (24) have picked up more points than Die Nullfunfer (23) in that same period. Next up is a Friday night trip (19:30, Sky Sports Mix) to the Weserstadion to take on an out-of-sorts Werder Bremen that are yet to win in 2025. Below you can find my Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05 prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Werder Bremen's treatment room is fairly busy at the moment, housing the injured talents of Felix Agu (knee), Keke Topp (ankle), Marvin Ducksch (back) and Julian Malatini (muscle), while Jens Stage will serve a one-game suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition.

Stage (seven) and Ducksch (six) account for 39.4 per cent (13) of Werder's Bundesliga goal tally this season and so their dual absence is a big blow for Friday's hosts. Oli Burke, who has scored just twice in 13 appearances since returning to the club last summer following a failed loan spell at Birmingham City, could get the call-up from head coach Ole Werner to lead the line against Mainz.

Football Odds

Mainz are also missing their leading marksman, 12-goal forward Jonathan Burkardt, who has missed his side's last two games with a thigh injury.

Fellow forward Gabriel Vidovic (ankle) is also ruled out still which should mean 19-year-old Nelson Weiper, who scored his first goal of the season in last Saturday's 2-0 win over Stuttgart, gets the nod from the off again this week.

Moritz Jenz, who hasn't featured since January 11 due to a hip issue, is a doubt for Friday's fixture.

Werder Bremen vs Mainz Odds

Werder won September's reverse fixture 2-1 at the MEWA Arena and are 6/5 favourites on Friday, implying a win probability of 45.5%, while Mainz are 9/5, or a 35.7% chance, to claim a first head-to-head victory since October 2022 having failed to win any of the last four meetings between the teams.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5.

Total Goals - Over 3.5 @ 2/1

Only five (11 per cent) of Mainz's 19 league games this season have seen at least four goals scored, with only St. Pauli and Union Berlin (both two) recording a lower figure. However, that's in contrast to Bremen, who have been involved in 11 matches where over 3.5 goals has been struck, which accounts for 58 per cent of their Bundesliga contests.

The goals have been flying in of late with 23 scored in Werder's last five, averaging 4.6 per game, and four of those have seen at least four goals including last time out at Dortmund (2-2).

Five of Werder's nine Bundesliga home games this season have seen over 3.5 total goals land, while five of Mainz's 11 away trips have ended with a minimum of four strikes.

This selection fell short in September's reverse fixture but there was hope until the final minutes as three goals were struck before the 70th minute, two by Mainz and one by Bremen.

Meanwhile, the last time these sides met at the Weserstadion, in September 2023, Werder won 4-0.

I don't think we've reached the stage of the season yet where teams adopt a more conservative approach in certain games, willing to take a point to further their respective ambitions, and so with Mainz and Bremen both removed from relegation danger and in contention for the European spots, we should see an open contest on Friday, which fuels my belief that we will see a few goals.

Over 3.5 looks good to me here at 2/1.

Away Team Total Goals - Over 1.5 @ 11/8

Mainz have been more prolific in front of goal on their travels, averaging 2.1 goals per game compared to 1.4 at home. Henriksen's side have scored at least twice in six of their nine away trips, netting exactly three times in each.

They've only scored once away from home in 2025, however, failing to breach Bayer Leverkusen's defence in a 1-0 defeat on January 14 and taking the lead against Union Berlin five days later before losing 2-1. It should be noted, though, that Leverkusen are defending champions, and Union Berlin have conceded just 10 times at home this season - only Bayern (six) have conceded fewer goals on home soil.

Werder, meanwhile, have shipped 17 goals in nine at the Weserstadion - an average of 1.9 per game, and they've conceded at least twice five times there this season, including both matches in Bremen this calendar year.

Mainz are still missing their main man up top but that didn't stop them from scoring a couple against Stuttgart last week and they will fancy their chances of netting twice against, statistically, the division's joint-fifth worst defence.

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