Napoli vs Juventus Prediction: 7/2 for high-scoring end to Juve’s unbeaten run

Two of the great names of Italian football come together for a highlight of the season on Saturday when Serie A leaders Napoli host Juventus at the Stadio Diego Maradona (18:00 local, 17:00 GMT).

Juve’s curious unbeaten record will be under serious threat, with Antonio Conte looking to take three points off his former club and strengthen the Partenopei’s bid for a second title in three years. My Napoli vs Juventus predictions are below, along with full preview and match odds.

Team News

Other than the exit to Paris Saint-Germain last week of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Conte doesn’t have too many other headaches in terms of team selection.

Alessandro Buongiorno has a back problem, so could miss out, but otherwise Napoli’s biggest issue is transfer market additions as they attempt to bring in the firepower to lead them to another Serie A title.

For Juventus head coach Thiago Motta, there are a few more issues. Brazilian defender Bremer remains a long-term absentee due to a cruciate ligament tear, while his compatriot Danilo is negotiating a termination of his Juve deal, with Napoli one of the clubs previously linked to his signing.

Juan Cabal is another player out for the foreseeable with knee ligament trouble, while Arkadiusz Milik has missed the entire season thus far due to knee and calf problems.

Napoli vs Juventus Odds

That nuts record of Juventus’ in Serie A makes for real value in Betfred’s match result market.

The Bianconeri have yet to lose in Serie A this season, yet they have drawn 13 of the 21 matches to date. That has helped to lengthen Napoli’s odds, since they are 11/10 for the win, implying only a 47.6% probability despite them having dropped only 13 points so far and heading the table by three.

Juve, meanwhile, are 11/4, with their defensive record of just eight conceded in 10 away games – four coming in one match at Inter – making them a difficult team to bet against.

You always have to consider the draw seriously in any Juventus game, and the stalemate is priced at 2/1, suggesting a 33.3% shot.

The Old Lady’s 2-0 win over AC Milan last time out was a statement success, and was also the first game in eight involving Juve not to come good in the Both Teams to Score market. BTTS is priced at 11/10 at the Maradona.

Napoli -1 @ 100/30

This is where Juve’s luck runs out for me. Sure, they have been a pretty formidable opponent at times this season, and have already taken something off every Serie A side, but Napoli are a step ahead of them in reality.

The match-up on Saturday reminds me a bit of when Juve were in the middle of compiling an unbeaten 2011/12 league season, and it was at the Maradona that they arguably came closest to tripping up.

Napoli led 2-0 and 3-1 on that occasion, only for late goals by Marcelo Estigarribia and Simone Pepe to rescue a point for the visitors. Arguably, the Azzurri were well worth that two-goal advantage having really put the eventual champions to the sword.

I can see another such performance from the league leaders, but this time they ought to get their reward. The intimidating atmosphere in Campania can often lead to an extra goal for the home team, and they should have enough in them to win this with a bit to spare.

The straight win at 11/10 is tempting as it is, since it is not often a league leader is priced so generously for a home fixture, but I’m confident enough in Conte getting a big performance out of his side to back them to see it home by at least two goals at 100/30.

Football Odds

Over 3.5 Total Goals @ 7/2

As stated, I think Napoli get the backing of the crowd and really take it to Juve. While it might not be another 5-1 like in 2023, I think a 3-1 or similar is well on the cards.

They have scored three or more times on six occasions already this term, and with the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Scott McTominay and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa having got amongst the goals of late, this might not be as cagey as some of those early Juve games back in the autumn.

At 7/2, Betfred are implying a 22.2% chance that this one includes four or more goals, and I think that’s slightly on the generous side for a fixture which has variously ended 5-1, 4-3, 3-3, 3-1 and 3-2 over the past 10 years alone.

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