Auxerre vs St Etienne Prediction: Traore back on target in battle of promoted sides

Auxerre and St Etienne finished first and second respectively in last season's Ligue 2, both earning promotion to the French top flight, and it's L'AJA that reign supreme again this term as they sit 11th, five points better off than the 16th-placed Les Verts, who are their visitors to the Stade de l'Abbe-Deschamps on Friday (19:45).

Below is my Auxerre vs St Etienne prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Friday night fixture from Ligue 1.

Team News

Auxerre are missing injured quintet Jubal Junior (adductor), Nathan Buayi-Kiala, Lasso Coulibaly (both knee), Kevin Danois and Ange Loic N'Gatta (both muscular), while ex-Luton Town defender Gabriel Osho is banned following his red card in last Sunday's 2-0 defeat at Angers. Paul Joly, who was sent off in the goalless draw with Lille nine days earlier, is still suspended.

Meanwhile, Madagascar international Rayan Raveloson, who had featured 13 times in Ligue 1 this term, recently completed a permanent switch to Swiss Super League champions Young Boys.

Football Odds

Ibrahim Sissoko, Benjamin Bouchouari and Louis Mouton are suspended for St Etienne, who still have Yvann Macon, Benjamin Old (both knee), Ibrahima Wadji (unspecified) and Thomas Monconduit (leg) in their treatment room.

Aimen Moueffek has missed five of his side's last six games including their most recent two and is a doubt for Friday due to illness, but Pierre Ekwah, who missed last Sunday's 1-1 draw against Nantes, is looking better according to Norwegian head coach Eirik Horneland, who also confirmed that their scorer in that game, Ghanaian midfielder Augustine Boakye, has "trained normally".

Auxerre vs St Etienne Odds

Auxerre are winless in their last six league games but have suffered just a single defeat at home this season which goes a long way to explaining their 10/11 odds on Friday, which imply a win probability of 52.4%. St Etienne, who have lost eight of their nine away Ligue 1 matches this term, conceding 29 goals and scoring only six, are down at 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to claim three points on their travels for the first time in 2024/25.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/11.

Price Boosts - Both Teams to Score, Each Team 4+ Shots on Target, 10+ Corners in the Match @ 4/1 5/1

Both of these teams feature lowly in the Ligue 1 BTTS table, with just 50 per cent (nine) of Auxerre's 18 games seeing a goal for either side, while only Le Havre (seven) have been involved in as few matches with BTTS - Yes as St Etienne (also seven). However, four of those seven occurrences for St Etienne have come in their last four league games, netting six times in that period - a vast improvement on the single goal they had struck in their previous four outings.

Auxerre have struggled for goals recently, blanking in back-to-back games against Lille (0-0) and Angers (2-0), but they were reduced to 10 men in the 56th minute against Les Dogues and in the 22nd minute against Les Noirs et Blancs, so there is a caveat to their recent struggles in the attacking third. L'AJA have scored in six of their nine home games in Ligue 1 this season, only failing to breach the defence of Lille, Paris Saint-Germain (0-0) and AS Monaco (0-3), who are third, first and fourth in the current standings, highlighting the difficulties of hosting those three teams.

Against St Etienne, who they thrashed 5-2 in the corresponding fixture last season and scored past in October's reverse fixture at the Stade Geoffroy Guichard (3-1), Auxerre should be confident of posing problems on Friday, so backing the hosts and visitors to get on the scoresheet is a fair shout, particularly with both sides probably eyeing up this match as one they can win.

The second leg of this Betfred Price Boost involves each team recording at least four shots on target, something which narrowly fell short in November as Auxerre could only muster three against St Etienne's five. Strangely, it was a winner in the first meeting of 2024 despite just one goal being scored at the Stade Geoffroy Guichard. St Etienne won 1-0 on home soil and forced Auxerre goalkeeper Donovan Leon into four saves while L'AJA were denied four times by Les Verts shot-stopper Gautier Larsonneur. This selection also landed in last season's corresponding fixture; Auxerre won 5-2 and registered seven shots on target in total compared to St Etienne's eight.

Each team with four-plus shots on target has also been a winner in Auxerre's last two Ligue 1 games.

Lastly, we require at least 10 corners to be taken in Friday's clash. Both sides rank in the top half for match corners taken per game with an average of 9.7 p/g putting Auxerre sixth and 9.3 p/g pushing St Etienne into ninth.

Auxerre's last home match, against Lille, produced 16 corners (six for, 10 against) while St Etienne's latest away outing, at PSG on January 12, saw 10 taken (three for, seven against), and Les Verts have seen at least 10 corners given in their last four games against Ligue 1 opposition.

Anytime Goalscorer - Hamed Junior Traore (AUX) @ 13/8

On-loan AFC Bournemouth winger Hamed Junior Traore has been Auxerre's star man in attack this season, scoring seven goals in 15 Ligue 1 appearances, which is two more than the side's next-highest scorer Gaetan Perrin (five).

Traore only has one goal in his last five games but as previously mentioned, Auxerre have been reduced to 10 men in their last two matches while French football powerhouses PSG were one of their opponents in that period. Prior to this current five-game run, the 24-year-old had struck four in five to put himself in a surprise early race for the Golden Boot, although he has since been left in the dust by the likes of Marseille's Marcus Greenwood (12), who tops the charts heading into matchday 19.

The 10-cap Ivory Coast international didn't score against St Etienne in the reverse fixture but did hit the target with two of his three efforts in that game, forcing a couple of saves from Larsonneur.

At home to a struggling side, Traore has the perfect chance on Friday to get back in the goalscoring groove, so I think he's worthing back to notch anytime at 13/8.

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