Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction: Alvarez & Wirtz can both have 1+ SoT

Our La Liga expert is usually wheeled out for Real Madrid and Barcelona matches but we've assigned him the other team from the Spanish capital for Tuesday's round of Champions League games. This one will be broadcast on TNT Sports 2 from 20:00.

You can read his full match preview below along with his top tips as he takes us through his Atlético Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions for us on Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of our Football Odds over at betfred.com

Two of Europe's form teams clash at the Estadio Metropolitano on Tuesday, with Atlético Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen both hoping to close in on a top eight finish in the league phase of the Champions League. 

With just one point currently separating the teams ranked between 3rd and 12th, the race couldn't be much tighter. These two sides are among that group, with the German champions currently only one point, but seven places better off than Atleti, heading into the penultimate matchday. 

A victory for either side here would leave them well placed to secure direct passage into the round-of-16. On current form, both sides certainly know that winning feeling and this promises to be one of the most competitive matches this week in Europe. 

Atleti head into the fixture with four wins and two defeats so far in the Champions League. Those two losses both came back in October though, against Benfica and Lille, when Diego Simeone's were not remotely convincing on either the domestic or European stage. 

Since then, the Atleti boss has found a winning formula, with a 4-4-2 system and a very settled eleven. While Antoine Griezmann and Julián Alvarez are the star names up front, the likes of Javi Galán, Clément Lenglet and Giuliano Simeone were also key factors in a club record 15-game winning streak that started in late October and only ended on Saturday. 

That run included away victories against the likes of PSG and Barcelona, and while it's certainly true that Los Rojiblancos rode their luck in those two games, they have had the feel of a team growing in confidence with each passing week. 

Even a heavily rotated eleven blew Segunda División high-fliers Elche away 4-0 in the Copa del Rey last week. It was therefore a big surprise when the regulars returned at the weekend, only to see their winning streak end in highly unexpected fashion, in the form of a 1-0 defeat at struggling Leganés in La Liga. 

Simeone will want to see an immediate reaction from his players here, but it certainly won't be easy against a Bayer Leverkusen side that is 11 games into their own winning run. 

After a slightly unconvincing start to the campaign, at least by the impossibly high standards of their 2023/24 double-winning season, the defending Bundesliga champions have also got into their groove over the past couple of months. 

It has certainly been a really strong response to their crushing 4-0 defeat at Liverpool in this competition in early November. Since then, they've defeated RB Salzburg and Inter in the Champions League, while they've also won away games against Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in domestic action. 

Xabi Alonso's side are now only four points off the top of the Bundesliga and they'll fancy their chances of pushing Bayern all the way over the next few months as they bid to defend their first ever German title. 

Making a mark in Europe will also be a big priority, with their 3-0 defeat to Atalanta in last season's Europa League final, the only major blot on a remarkable campaign.  

Die Schwarzroten have already seen off both Milan clubs at home in the Champions League this term, but victory at the Estadio Metropolitano would be a real statement of intent, particularly given how difficult visiting teams have tended to find this place in Europe. 

They've had plenty of first-hand experience of that, having failed to win on any of their five European trips to the red and white half of Madrid. All of those games have taken place since 2010, with the German side suffering Champions League round-of-16 exits against this opposition in both 2015 and 2017. 

Team News: 

Atleti are likely to be missing striker Alexander Sørloth again due to injury. The Norwegian has made a big impact off the bench, but his expected absence means Griezmann and Alvarez look sure to form the front two again here. 

José María Giménez also remains a doubt, so Robin Le Normand may continue in central defence, alongside Lenglet. Marcos Llorente is expected to rotate into the side, while Samuel Lino is also pushing for Conor Gallagher's role on the left of the midfield. 

As for the visitors, they are expected to be missing four players to injury. Martin Terrier picked up a knock early in the 3-1 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach on Saturday, and he joins Jeanuel Belocian, Victor Boniface and Amine Adli on the sidelines as a result. 

Florian Wirtz is likely to be the biggest attacking threat for Leverkusen from the number 10 role, while striker Patrik Schick is also having a good season and should lead the line. 

Atlético Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen Odds

This is one of the toughest games to call in Europe this week and the odds reflect that, with Atlético Madrid only the slight favourites at 6/4, while Bayer Leverkusen are on offer at 15/8. The draw is priced at 11/5. 

You can back Over 2.5 goals at 11/10, while Over 3.5 goals is available at 5/2 if you see this really opening up. Over 1.5 home goals can be backed at 11/8, while you can get odds of 13/8 for Leverkusen to score over 1.5 goals. 

There are two players on each team who look the most obvious candidates to score in this one. From a home perspective, Alvarez is the 11/2 favourite to score first, while he's priced at 21/10 to score anytime. You can also back Griezmann to get on the scoresheet in this game at 23/10. 

For the visitors, Schick has netted 16 times in all competitions for his club this term, and the Czech international is priced at 6/1 to score first and 11/5 to score anytime. You can also back Wirtz to score anytime at 11/4. 

If you're expecting all four players to have an impact on the game, you can take advantage of a Price Boost, and back Griezmann 1+ shots on target, Alvarez 1+ shots on target, Wirtz 1+ shots on target and Schick 1+ shots on target at 5/1. 

Bet 1 - Both teams to score @ 4/5 

While it's true that Diego Simeone does still resort to conservative tactics at times, this is an Atlético Madrid side that has some really talented attacking players, and their Champions League matches over the past 18 months have actually tended to be quite open. 

Since the start of last season, 69% of their fixtures in Europe have seen both teams score. This term, they have the worst defensive record of the teams ranked in the top 15 of the Champions League table, with their matches averaging exactly four goals per game in total. 

Given the quality that Leverkusen possess in the final third, and with the hosts most likely needing to target three points, this should be a very watchable contest and I'm backing Both teams to score at 4/5. 

Bet 2 - Julián Alvarez 1+ shots on target & Florian Wirtz 1+ shots on target @ 13/8 

With plenty of height at the back, Atleti may feel as though they can do a pretty good job at dealing with Schick in this game, but Wirtz may be tougher to track, with the 21-year-old likely to find space between the home team's two lines of four. 

Wirtz has already scored five times in this competition this season, while he's on 18 goals for club and country overall. He's had at least one shot on target in all of his last six starts for Leverkusen. 

At the other end of the pitch, Alvarez continues to grow in confidence for Atleti and his understanding with Griezmann is improving. While burdened to some extent by a hefty price-tag that accompanied his move from Manchester City in the summer, the Argentina international has chipped in with 14 goals already for his new club and he's at least hit the target in eight of his last 11 appearances. 

Given that, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Alvarez 1+ shots on target and Wirtz 1+ shots on target at 13/8 here. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights writers on our Football home page...