Bologna vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: I Rossoblu could sink Sahin

Bologna's knockout hopes in the Uefa Champions League are all but over after failing to win any of their opening six league phase games, taking just two points from 18 on offer, but their visitors to the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Tuesday (20:00, TNT Sports 5), Borussia Dortmund, still have everything to play for as they sit ninth, just a point off a top-eight berth which would see them avoid a play-off tie and head straight to the last 16 of the competition.

Below is my Bologna vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Michel Aebischer (thigh) has been out injured for Bologna since early October and despite returning to individual training, his return to action looks a way off still.

Long-term absentees Nicolo Cambiaghi (knee) and Oussama El Azzouzi (back) are also back in training but both will miss out in midweek.

Head coach Vincenzo Italiano could make a few changes to the starting XI that lined up in Saturday's 3-1 win over Monza. Summer signing Thijs Dallinga, who only scored his first goal for the club just before Christmas, now has two in his last five games and could start in place of Argentine striker Santiago Castro, who he replaced at half-time on the weekend.

Dan Ndoye and Charalampos Lykogiannis, both subbed on in the 66th minute against Monza, are also in line for starts, as are Emil Holm and Tommaso Pobega, neither of whom made it onto the field on Saturday.

Football Odds

Borussia Dortmund's form post-Christmas has put Nuri Sahin's position as head coach under severe scrutiny, with Friday's 2-0 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt their third in the space of eight days following previous losses to Holstein Kiel (4-2) and Bayer Leverkusen (2-3).

Changes to Sahin's starting XI are in the offing, certainly at left-back where Ramy Bensebaini started in Frankfurt before being hooked at half-time. The Algeria international is also suspended for Tuesday's trip to Italy so we could see right-back Julian Ryerson move across to the left, as he did in the second half last Friday, to allow Yan Couto to line up in his favoured position.

Niklas Sule (ankle) is still sidelined for the German giants but otherwise, Sahin's squad is looking healthy.

Karim Adeyemi, who hit a first-half hat-trick on his last European outing, a 7-1 thrashing of Celtic on October 1, could earn a start against Bologna, as could Maximilian Beier, Marcel Sabitzer and Giovanni Reyna.

Bologna vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Bologna have won four of their last six home games at the Renato Dall'Ara and are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to take all three points in the first-ever competitive contest between these two sides. Dortmund, meanwhile, have won two of their three European away games this season, beating Club Brugge and Dinamo Zagreb (both 0-3) either side of a 5-2 hammering at Real Madrid, and are 11/10 (47.6%) to triumph in Italy on Tuesday.

The draw is priced at 5/2 and both teams to score - which has won in seven of Dortmund's last eight matches - at 4/6.

Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy (8/5) is favourite in the anytime goalscorer market followed by Dallinga (23/10).

Player to Receive a Card - Yan Couto (DOR) @ 13/5

Two Dortmund full-backs, Ryerson (16/5) and Couto, were under consideration in the card market for Tuesday, and even though the former has a better chance of starting, it's Couto who has edged the battle in my head and made it to the first tip of this column.

With Bensebaini banned in Europe, there's a vacancy to be filled at full-back, and though there is a possibility of 18-year-old Almugera Kabar, who has made four first-team appearances this season but none in Europe, getting the nod at left-back, I think it's likelier that Ryerson moves over to there and Couto comes in at right-back, where he showed promise off the bench last Friday in Frankfurt.

Couto joined Dortmund last season having spent three of the past four seasons at Spanish side Girona, whom he played 34 times for in the 2023/24 La Liga campaign. The Brazilian was a prolific carder in the Spanish top flight, receiving eight yellows, and he's already on four in 12 Bundesliga outings for Dortmund this term, despite just four of those games coming as a starter.

The 22-year-old hasn't been a regular starter in the Champions League either, with just one of his four appearances in the competition coming from the off, but he was booked last time out against Barcelona after appearing from the bench at the start of the second half, taking just 12 minutes to get himself scribbled in the referee's notebook.

On Tuesday, Couto could be up against a favourite of mine, Bologna winger Ndoye, who is someone I regularly tip to cause chaos. The reason for that is simple: the man is a foul magnet. In six Champions League appearances this season (five starts), Ndoye has been fouled, on average, 2.3 times per game, and has been the recipient of yellow card challenges from Shakhtar Donetsk's Valerii Bondar and Lille's Thomas Meunier.

The Switzerland international's fouls per game average is even higher in Serie A (3.1 p/g) and he could be in direct competition with Couto on Tuesday, so the 13/5 on the Brazilian to be booked looks tasty. Ndoye's fellow wingers, Riccardo Orsoloni (1.6 p/g in UCL, 1.4 p/g in Serie A) and Benjamin Dominguez (two p/g), are also consistently fouled, so whoever lines up on the left against Couto is likely to pose a big threat to the Dortmund right-back.

Draw No Bet - Bologna @ 6/4

Bologna's chances of making the play-offs are remote, at best, as they sit six points behind 24th-placed Dinamo Zagreb, who currently occupy the final entry spot with two rounds of fixtures remaining.

Dortmund, meanwhile, are one win away from securing safe passage to the play-offs, and with a home game against Shakhtar all that's left for them after Tuesday, they stand a great chance of finishing in the top eight and progressing straight to the last 16.

However, despite the contrasting motivations, I can't overlook the horrific recent form of Dortmund, who have suffered three defeats in a row and have won only one in eight.

BVB are 10th in the Bundesliga after 18 games played and are in dire straits heading into a crunch Champions League clash, while Bologna are yet to be beaten in 2025, drawing 2-2 at home to AS Roma and away to Inter Milan before chalking up a first success of the calendar year against Monza. I Rossoblu started the season slowly under Italiano but have really kicked on since losing 2-1 to Lille on November 27, losing just one of their subsequent 10 matches.

As such, I'm very tempted to back Bologna to win on Tuesday at 12/5, but given the importance of the contest to Dortmund, the 'Draw No Bet' on the hosts is the best bet at 6/4. Either way, I don't think Sahin will be smiling after, and a poor result in Italy could cop him the sack.

Offers

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