Monza vs Fiorentina Prediction: Bottom club set for another narrow defeat

On Monday night, Serie A takes centre stage as Monza host Fiorentina in an intriguing clash (19:45) at the Brianteo Stadium. Monza simply have to start picking up wins soon, as they sit bottom of the table with just one win to their name in 2024/25. 

They are currently seven points from safety, while Fiorentina are knocking on the door of the Champions League places. Below you can find my Monza vs Fiorentina predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Monza sacked Alessandro Nesta just before Christmas and replaced him with Salvatore Bocchetti, but he has lost his first two matches in charge. Two red cards in his first two matches in charge has somewhat ruined any momentum he had hoped to build up, while it also means that Danilo D'Ambrosio is suspended for this match.

Pablo Mari should return after his red to the heart of the back three, while Kevin Martins could come into the team at right wing-back. The 19-year-old has shown a decent amount of promise and could play here, as Bocchetti looks to drag his side away from the foot of the table. Experienced striker Milan Djuric could be called upon to lead the line, while Gianluca Caprari will be looking to add to the goal he scored last time out. 

Football Odds

Midfielders Matteo Pessina and Roberto Gagliardini are still sidelined but Georgios Kyriakopoulos could return after missing the last two games with an injury.

Meanwhile, Fiorentina are looking strong from an injury perspective and should have a full squad available for this match on Monday night. Michael Folorunsho has just joined on loan from Napoli and could force his way into the XI, while Nicolas Valentini has arrived from Boca Juniors this month and should make the bench. 

Raffaele Palladino played three at the back against Napoli but is likely to switch to the more aggressive 4-2-3-1 for this game against bottom of the league, with former Monza player Andrea Colpani hoping to make an impact at his old stomping ground. Moise Kean has scored 15 goals this season and is the Viola’s biggest threat up front.

Monza vs Fiorentina Odds

Monza are priced at 11/4 to win this game having lost seven and drawn three of their 10 home league games so far. Fiorentina are the clear favourites at 10/11, giving them an implied win probability of 52%, while a draw can be backed at 12/5. 

Over 2.5 goals has come in during 10 of Fiorentina’s 18 league matches so far, putting them slightly ahead of the average, and is 10/11 while BTTS is 4/5. Kean is the favourite to open the scoring at 9/2. 

Fiorentina to win @ 10/11

A simple selection but one I think still offers decent value. Monza are yet to win a home match this season and they look destined to be relegated come May. The change in manager hasn’t seemed to improve their fortunes and discipline seems to be an issue, with two red cards in their last two matches. 

It means that they are low on confidence heading into this fixture, while Fiorentina have been impressive so far this term. With a couple of exciting January additions that I have already touched upon, the Viola have a real chance of breaking into the Champions League places this term. They’ve also only lost two league matches on the road this season and should be able to add another win to that record on Monday. 

Correct score: Monza 1-2 Fiorentina @ 15/2

I’ll push things slightly further with a correct score for this game. Fiorentina haven’t won any of their last five matches and so I think this match may be closer than many people believe, even though I do think they will come away from the Brianteo Stadium with all three points. 

Monza meanwhile have incredibly lost each of their last five matches by a scoreline of 2-1. They score a decent number of goals and are in the majority of the matches they play, but just can’t seem to get over the line or pick up points. As a result, I think that we could see a repeat scoreline when they take on a Fiorentina outfit desperate to get back on track. 

Offers

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