Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United Prediction: Reds can clinch back-to-back away wins this week

A fourth defeat in five games for Wellington Phoenix last Friday has piled the pressure on head coach Giancarlo Italiano, whose side mustered just a single attempt at goal as they were easily beaten 2-0 by a youthful Melbourne City side beset by injuries.' Chiefy' will have to rouse his troops for a big game on Saturday (04:00, TNT Sports 1), though, as high-flyers Adelaide United visit Sky Stadium looking to make it back-to-back away wins following their late 2-1 comeback victory at Macarthur on Monday.

Read below for my Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Australian A-League Men's contest in New Zealand's capital city.

Team News

Oskar van Hattum was thrown on at the start of the second half against Melbourne City but the 22-year-old is out of Saturday's squad for reasons unknown. What has been made clear, though, is that Stefan Colakovski and Marco Rojas are still injured, and captain Alex Rufer is ill again.

With Van Hattum omitted, 17-year-old Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues has been called up by Italiano.

Football Odds

Adelaide United are weakened by the unavailability of left-back and captain Ryan Kitto who is out for 'personal reasons' while Panashe Madanha misses out alongside Jordan Elsey and Bailey O'Neil, who are both in individual training following lengthy absences.

Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United Odds

Wellington Phoenix beat Adelaide United 3-2 the last time these sides met at Sky Stadium in March last year, but neither Ben Old, now at French club St. Etienne, nor the omitted Van Hattum, the Nix's goalscorers on the day, will feature on Saturday. The Nix finished 21 points ahead of the Reds last season but trail Carl Veart's charges by eight after 10 games played each this term, so you can understand why the New Zealanders are underdogs at 21/10 to claim all three points this weekend. Those odds give the hosts an implied win probability of 32.3% while the visitors (1/1) are given a 50% chance of success.

The Nix haven't experienced a stalemate since an opening-weekend 1-1 draw against Western United and it's 5/2 for the scores to finish level on Saturday, while you can get 8/15 for both teams to score which was a winner in both meetings between the sides in 2023/24.

Match Result - Adelaide United @ 1/1

The Nix were one of last season's success stories as they defied the odds to finish runners-up to Central Coast Mariners in the Premiership, only missing out on the title themselves by two points. However, after losing several key players including ALM Goalkeeper of the Year Alex Paulsen and 2022/23 top scorer Oskar Zawada in the off-season, Italiano's side have failed to live up to new expectations and are currently languishing in the lower reaches of the division with 11th-placed Newcastle Jets able to overtake them this weekend if results go their way.

Firing just a single shot against Melbourne City at AAMI Park last week was, quite frankly, a disgrace considering the injury issues their head coach Aurelio Vidmar had to contend with.

Italiano isn't helped by a few absences of his own but that's no excuse for getting beaten in that manner and they now face an Adelaide outfit that has lost just once this season and won six of their opening 10 games. The Reds, in fact, have been perfect on their travels, winning all five matches away from Coopers Stadium, and they will fancy their chances of making it a perfect six from six away from home on Saturday.

United haven't won in Wellington since November 2018 but records are there to be broken, certainly against this current Nix side that has barely shown signs of life. The energy and enthusiasm of Adelaide's attackers, notably Archie Goodwin, Ben Folami and Zach Clough, should prove too much for the New Zealanders this weekend.

First Goal Time (10 Minute Intervals) - 1-10 @ 3/1

Wellington have either been quick out of the traps or slow to start in their last four games which have all seen a goal in the first 10 minutes. Macarthur's Valere Germain opened the scoring in the seventh minute of the Bull's 2-1 win over the Nix on December 14 before Western Sydney Wanderers' Zach Sapsford struck inside the first minute of their 4-1 thrashing of the New Zealanders eight days later.

Italiano's side nearly scored as quickly on December 28 as Kostas Barbarouses set his side on their way in the second minute of a 2-1 win over the Jets but last Saturday it was their turn again to go a goal down early, conceding in the seventh minute to Melbourne City's Harry Politidis.

Adelaide, meanwhile, have seen a goal in the first 10 minutes of half (five) of their opening 10 fixtures and have been responsible for 60 per cent of them. Monday's hero in Sydney, Luka Jovanovic, was the one who opened the scoring in the 10th minute of their opening-day 1-1 draw with Central Coast Mariners on October 26 and he was at it again a week later, opening the scoring in the fourth minute of his side's 4-3 victory at the Wanderers.

Veart's side experienced a third successive game with an early goal in their 2-1 win over Western United on November 9 but that time it was an opposing player, Kane Vidmar, who struck the opener in the 10th minute and in their next contest, a 3-2 triumph at Brisbane Roar, the home side's Keegan Jelacic scored in the sixth minute.

Adelaide were back at it themselves on December 20, however, as Goodwin notched a fifth-minute opener in a 3-3 draw with Sydney.

Considering the first 10-minute statistics of these teams, 3/1 is a solid price for there to be a goal in the first 10 minutes on Saturday.

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