Sydney vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Visitors to strike first in ‘The Big Blue’

The first 'Big Blue' of the 2024/25 Australia A-League Men's season takes place on Saturday (08:35, TNT Sports 2) as Sydney host Melbourne Victory at Allianz Stadium. Seven points separate the sides heading into this one and a win for the visitors - provided Auckland don't beat Central Coast Mariners earlier in the day - would see Victory end the calendar year top of the table. The Sky Blues, meanwhile, can hope for seventh at best.

Read on for my Sydney vs Melbourne Victory prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Sydney can welcome back three key players - Corey Hollman, Patryk Klimala and Adrian Segecic - from injury, but it remains to be seen whether the trio are fit enough to start on Saturday; Klimala is most likely to get the nod if he is.

Football Odds

Melbourne Victory interim head coach Arthur Diles has a fully-fit squad to choose from this week and he must decide whether to shake things up after last weekend's 1-1 Melbourne derby draw against Melbourne City.

Nishan Velupillay returned from a three-game injury absence last week and he will be in contention for a first start since November 9 while Bruno Fornaroli and Adama Traore could also get the nod from the off.

Sydney vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Sydney are 7/5 to win their first 'Big Blue' since April 2023 when they beat Melbourne Victory 1-0 courtesy of a first-half strike from Anthony Caceres. Those odds give the Sky Blues an implied probability of 41.7% while the visitors are 6/4, or a 40% chance, to finish the calendar year with all three points.

The draw, which landed in the only other meeting between the sides this year (1-1 at AAMI Park on January 26), is priced at 12/5, and both teams to score at 4/9.

Fornaroli (13/10) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by teammate Nikos Vergos and Sydney star Klimala (both 6/4).

First Team to Score - Melbourne Victory @ 19/20

Sydney have failed to win any of the first three games this month, losing away to Central Coast Mariners (2-1) and at home against Western United (3-4) before playing out a 3-3 draw with Adelaide United at Coopers Stadium last Friday. Slow starts cost them as they conceded first in all three contests, while it's five in eight for the league season.

Victory, meanwhile, have been quicker out of the blocks than the Sky Blues, scoring first in half (four) of their ALM outings so far, and one of the four in which they didn't strike first ended goalless. Melbourne City scored first in the Melbourne derby last weekend but it was Victory's first game without boss Patrick Kisnorbo, who quit his post just days earlier to join Japanese J1 League club Yokohama F. Marinos as their new assistant manager.

There were bound to be issues emanating from that sudden exit, and City duly capitalised. However, Victory showed their resolve to recover and equalise midway through the second half through veteran defender Roderick Miranda, and with a week's extra training under interim head coach Diles, who was Kisnorbo's assistant prior to his promotion, they could catch Sydney cold on Saturday.

Sydney's defence has been nothing short of shambolic this season with only bottom-two clubs Perth Glory (27) and Brisbane Roar (21) shipping more goals than the Sky Blues (17), and while they have shown fight themselves to recover from early setbacks, the reality is that they keep shooting themselves in the foot by conceding first in games, and I fear that they will make it an unwanted four in four on Saturday with Victory able to strike first at just under EVS.

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score - Sydney or Draw & Yes @ 11/10

Both teams to score has landed in 88 per cent (seven) of Sydney's eight ALM games this season including all three they have played at Allianz Stadium. BTTS - Yes has been a winner in their last six league contests, last failing to come through on October 27 when they lost 1-0 to Auckland.

Half (four) of Victory's eight ALM matches have finished with at least a goal on either side including two of their last three, and both teams to score landed in the only other 'Big Blue' earlier this year as the two teams shared a couple of goals.

Victory boast a much more solid defence than their rivals and, in fact, possess the best 'goals conceded' record having only been breached five times so far this term. However, they've kept just one clean sheet in their last four games and are still getting to grips with the differences of Diles as a head coach compared to predecessor Kisnorbo. As a result, I expect some bumps in the road and for sides to pose more problems than they have previously.

Both teams to score is an easy shout in my mind, but to up the odds, I'm adding in the double chance result on Sydney, despite their recent travails.

The Sky Blues lost to the Mariners and Western United in the first half of the month but against the former, they were reduced to 10 men before half-time as goalkeeper Harrison Devenish-Meares received a red card. Meanwhile, last Friday, they showed tremendous resolve to come back from 3-1 down at Adelaide to draw 3-3, scoring their second and third goals after the 88th minute.

If they keep 11 players on the pitch this weekend, I think they have a decent chance of at least avoiding defeat to Victory, who are adapting to life after Kisnorbo.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.