Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets Prediction: New Zealanders to get back on track

Neither Wellington Phoenix nor Newcastle Jets will be pleased with their starts to the 2024/25 Australia A-League Men's campaign. Both clubs are in the bottom half of the table heading into their meeting at Sky Stadium on Saturday (04:00, TNT Sports 3), although the Kiwi hosts could still end the calendar year in the top six - but only if they claim all three points this weekend.

Read on for my Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets prediction, complete with team news and match odds.

Team News

Wellington Phoenix right-back Tim Payne played the duration of last Sunday's 4-1 defeat at Western Sydney Wanderers but misses out this weekend due to injury, joining Marco Rojas in the treatment room.

Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues and Luke Brooke-Smith have been included in the long list by head coach Giancarlo Italiano.

Football Odds

Newcastle Jets are still without Jacob Dowse, Dane Ingham, Alex Nunes, Oscar Fryer, Zac Bowling and Ben van Dorssen, but Lachlan Rose and Christian Bracco are back available for selection.

Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets Odds

Wellington Phoenix are 4/5 to return to winning ways after more than a month without tasting success. Those odds give the New Zealanders an implied probability of 55.6%, while Newcastle Jets are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to record back-to-back victories for the first time this season.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/11.

Wellington striker Kosta Barbarouses has struck five ALM goals this season - no player has scored more - and he is the 10/11 favourite to net anytime on Saturday, and 3/1 to bag first.

To Win to Nil - Wellington Phoenix @ 9/4

After winning three of their first four ALM games this season, Wellington have now lost their last three - all of which have come since the start of December - shipping eight goals in the process.

Newcastle, meanwhile, lost five of their first six league matches but thrashed Perth Glory 4-0 at HBF Park last time out in the competition (December 14) and have since enjoyed a two-week break. So, will the Jets be well-rested for Saturday's trip to New Zealand? Or will they have lost the chance to build some momentum after such a long time out of action?

In truth, I don't think any of it really matters, as I would back the Nix to claim victory no matter the circumstance.

The Jets won convincingly in Perth earlier this month but that was against a Glory side that had failed to win any of their first seven ALM contests this season, conceding 20 times before letting in a fifth of that total at home to Newcastle.

Saturday's visitors' only other victory this term came away to Macarthur (1-2) on October 25 in what can only be described as a 'smash-and-grab'.

Wellington may have lost three on the trot but all three defeats (2-1 v Auckland, 1-2 v Macarthur, 4-1 v Western Sydney Wanderers) have come against sides above them in the table heading into this weekend. The Jets are one of four teams below the Nix and Italiano's side have beaten the only two - Perth Glory (0-2) and CCM (0-3) - they have faced so far.

The Jets got the better of the Nix in their first meeting of last season, winning 3-0 at Sky Stadium last December, but Wellington got their revenge at the McDonald Jones Stadium in January as they won 2-1 before playing out a 1-1 draw at the same venue in April.

I fancy Wellington to get back on track this Saturday and I'm backing them to keep a clean sheet while doing so. The Nix have won three times this season and have kept a clean sheet in all three victories, while the Jets have failed to score in three of their five defeats, including their last two.

Player to Receive a Card - Thomas Aquilina (NEW) @ 9/2

Jets wide-man Thomas Aquilina has played down both sides this season, featuring from the left as a winger in a 4-4-2 but also appearing on the right, most recently as a right wing-back in a 3-4-2-1, a formation which paid dividends for both player and club as the 23-year-old scored in a 4-0 victory over the Glory in Perth.

Aquilina was also booked in that game, however, his third yellow in just seven ALM appearances this term - already one more than his two-card tally in 2023/24. He averaged 0.9 fouls per game last season but is up to 1.1 in 2024/25 and has committed two fouls in each of his two December outings.

He could be pressured into making more fouls on Saturday as he prepares to face Wellington wing-back Sam Sutton, who was fouled three times in the first half of the Nix's 4-1 defeat to the Wanderers last time out before being substituted off at the interval. The New Zealand international could still start this weekend, though, and the foul magnet could attract interest from Aquilina down his side.

Sutton has been fouled twice per game on average this season and at least twice in all three matches he has played this month, so don't be surprised to see Aquilina penalised for upending the 23-year-old.

Considering Aquilina's card count this term and the number of free-kicks Sutton wins, I think 9/2 is a solid price to back a caution for the Jets man.

Offers

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