Inter Milan vs Udinese Prediction: Back Inter to cause problems for Toure and Zebrette

Inter Milan will be looking to back up their record 6-0 win at Lazio on Sunday when they host Udinese at San Siro in the Coppa Italia round of 16 on Thursday (21:00 local, 20:00 GMT, live on Premier Sports 1).

The Nerazzurri racked up the biggest home defeat in the Roman side’s history at the weekend, and now Simone Inzaghi pits his troops against a Zebrette outfit who have lost the last four meetings between the two clubs. Here are my Inter Milan vs Udinese predictions, along with full preview and odds.

Team News

Inter will have to do without the inspiration behind their huge win at the weekend, with Nicolo Barella having asked to be replaced in the second half at the Olimpico due to an issue with his right adductor.

He joins Benjamin Pavard on the sideline, with the Frenchman still out with a thigh issue, while Francesco Acerbi is unlikely to return from a similar injury until after Christmas.

Davide Frattesi could come into contention, while Federico Dimarco should still be available despite seeming to struggle with cramp late on at the weekend.

Kosta Runjaic might call upon Alexis Sanchez for a first appearance since returning to Udinese as the head coach gets set to rotate some of his squad.

However, the German will still be unable to call upon Keinan Davis and Sandi Lovric, who have year-ending muscle injuries. Oier Zarraga’s thigh problem keeps him out of the picture for the time being.

First-choice goalkeeper Maduka Okoye is missing due to a wrist complaint, and Martin Payero is still sidelined with a knee injury.

Inter Milan vs Udinese Odds

Whatever rotation takes place, Inter have to be the overwhelming favourites, and that is reflected in the match result market with Betfred.

The 1/4 odds on offer imply an 80% probability of a home win at the Giuseppe Meazza, while Udinese are 8/1, which makes them an 11.1% shot for victory in 90 minutes.

With the draw at 4/1, that brings in the argument that the tie could go beyond regulation time, and Udinese are a tasty-looking 4/1 to progress by any means necessary.

These sides’ previous two meetings in 2024 have been high-scoring encounters, so that brings into focus the both teams to score market (Yes is 1/1).

If you prefer, over 2.5 total goals, which has come in in the last six Inter-Udinese clashes, is 4/7 (63.6%), while over 3.5 is at 6/4 (40%).

Only Inter to score @ 6/5

I’m far too impressed with Inter so far this season to be expecting anything other than a home win.

Sure, they are not at the top of the tree just yet as many might have believed would be the case for the reigning Serie A champions, but a win from their game in hand against Fiorentina would put that right.

And they also have the squad depth to make a few changes and still hit their straps in their first Coppa Italia involvement of the campaign.

The Nerazzurri have won eight of their 11 home games in 2024/25 so far, with only Milan, Juventus and Napoli taking anything off them, and I just don’t see Udinese getting close enough to the Scudetto holders.

The Friulani have scored just 19 goals in 16 contests with Serie A opponents this season, so I’m happy to take the 6/5 shot they will leave Lombardy with just the league to concentrate on and no goals in the bag.

Football Odds

Isaak Toure to be carded @ 12/5

I’m not normally one for the cards markets, per se, but there appears to be value to be had here.

Isaak Toure arrived in Serie A in the summer having been shown 11 cards – including a second yellow – in 41 starts in his Ligue 1 days with Auxerre and Lorient. Not a terrible record, by any means.

But with Udinese he has received two reds and two yellows in eight starts so far, with his sending-off against Genoa at the beginning of December being the latest example of him still coming to terms with the differing standards of life at the Italian top level.

So I think the 12/5 for Toure being carded during Thursday’s game at an implied 29.4% probability is on the generous side.

History suggests he has a 50% chance of being at least cautioned, and with Inter likely to ask greater questions than most, there’s proper value to be had in backing the Frenchman to fall foul of the arbitro Luca Massimi, who handed out two penalties and a couple of yellow cards in his only Serie A appointment this season between Bologna and Venezia three weeks ago.

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