Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Prediction: Don’t back the away win

TNT Sports 4 from 20:00 on Wednesday evening is the place to be if you want to watch arguably the tie of the night as 2024 beaten finalists Borussia Dortmund welcome in Spanish giants Barcelona.

Our La Liga Betting Expert got the assignment for this one and he's not expecting Hansi Flick's side to have it all their own way. Check out his Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Predictions along with the latest odds and Team News in his full match preview here at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona clash in the Champions League on Wednesday at the Westfalenstadion, with both sides already in a really strong position in the league phase. 

Both sides have won four and lost once so far in the competition, and the victor here will be all but guaranteed a top eight finish and direct passage into the round-of-16. 

With the exception of a trip to Real Madrid, which saw them squander a two goal lead to lose 5-2, Dortmund have benefited from a favourable Champions League schedule so far, and they have certainly taken full advantage. 

They fired in 10 goals across their opening two fixtures against Club Brugge and Celtic to top the early standings, before collapsing in the Spanish capital in a rerun of last season’s final. Since then, they’ve beaten Sturm Graz and Dinamo Zagreb to move into 4th place heading into matchday six. 

That’s two places higher than their current Bundesliga position though, and it certainly hasn’t been an easy ride for Nuri Şahin, who replaced Edin Terzić in the summer. 

Defensive issues have plagued their campaign, with 20 goals conceded in 13 league games to date and they already trail leaders Bayern by 12 points. Die Schwarzgelben are also out of the DFB-Pokal, so much like last season, the Champions League represents an opportunity to make amends for their domestic struggles. 

Home support at the Westfalenstadion will be key as they bid to go deep in the competition and Dortmund have been very strong at home this term. They’d won all eight matches in front of their own fans, before drawing 1-1 against Bayern in their most recent home outing when Jamal Musiala scored a late goal for the visitors, to cancel out a strike from English winger Jamie Gittens. 

They’ve not lost a Champions League home game since Erik ten Hag’s Ajax triumphed 3-1 on this ground in November 2021. This is therefore a real test of Barcelona’s credentials when it comes to going all the way in Europe this season. 

The Catalans have not reached the semi-finals in the Champions League since the 2018/19 campaign and their 4-0 second leg defeat against eventual winners Liverpool. Only one member of their 18-man squad on that fateful night at Anfield remains at the club today, and that’s goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen who is not expected to play again this season following a recent ACL injury. 

This is therefore an entirely new generation, looking to make a real mark on Europe for the first time. The early signs this season were certainly promising, with Hansi Flick’s side dominating matches in La Liga, and chalking up four convincing Champions League victories, including a 4-1 win over Bayern. 

Some cracks have started to emerge in recent weeks though. Since hammering Real Madrid in El Clásico, Barça have gone six league games without keeping a clean sheet, dropping points in four of their last five. 

For perhaps the first time in his reign, Flick has some serious thinking to do. With a range of strong options, he needs to figure out which players offer the best balance in midfield, while his reluctance to rest key men, has also led to suggestions that fatigue is now setting in for the likes of Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski. Both have started 21 of Barça’s 22 competitive fixtures so far this season. 

Team News: 

Borussia Dortmund are short on defensive options right now, with Niklas Süle picking up a weekend injury in the 1-1 draw against Borussia Mönchengladbach. He joins fellow defender Waldemar Anton on the sidelines and won’t feature again until the new year. 

Julian Brandt is also expected to miss this game, but key forward Karim Adeyemi is nearing fitness again and will be assessed ahead of kick-off. Maximilian Beier also picked up a knock at the weekend and is a doubt. 

As for Barcelona, Ronald Araújo makes the matchday squad for the first time this season following a lengthy injury. He’s unlikely to be rushed straight into the team though. 

Ter Stegen and Marc Bernal remain long-term absentees, while Andreas Christensen is not expected back until the new year. Ansu Fati is closer to fitness, but hasn’t travelled to Germany. 

Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Odds

Barcelona start as the 21/20 favourites to inflict a rare European home defeat on Borussia Dortmund. The Bundesliga side are available at 11/5 to win the game, while you can back the Draw at 3/1. 

Converting these prices into implied odds shows us that the Betfred traders believe the visitors have a 49% chance to emerge victorious. The home side have a 31% shot to win the match and the draw comes in at 25%.

This certainly has the feel of a fixture that should produce goals, as the competition’s two highest scoring teams after five matchdays clash. You can back Over 2.5 goals at 2/5, while Over 3.5 goals is available at 1/1.  

Both teams to score is short at 4/11, but you can get much bigger returns by backing Both teams to score two or more goals at 9/4. Meanwhile, Both teams to score in both halves is available at 11/2. 

Robert Lewandowski’s return to Dortmund is one of many subplots here. He scored 27 goals in 26 appearances against his old club during his Bayern career, and is available at 4/1 to score first and 21/20 to score anytime. 

With five goals in five Champions League games, Raphinha also looks good at 7/4 to score anytime. Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy, who has scored four times in the competition, is a fraction shorter at 6/4 to score anytime, while Jamie Gittens is 16/5 to get on the scoresheet. 

You can also back Over 2.5 goals, Robert Lewandowski 2+ shots on target, Raphinha 1+ shot on target and Serhou Guirassy 1+ shot on target at 9/2, boosted from 7/2. 

Bet 1 - Borussia Dortmund or Draw @ 8/11 

With the exception of a big win at Mallorca last week, Barcelona have not been playing well and they didn’t really deserve anything more than a point at Real Betis in La Liga on Saturday. 

Their early performances under Flick were defined by high intensity, attacking football, but with the minutes piling up, many players are starting to look a little bit leggy, and Barça’s level has dropped at both ends of the pitch. 

While Borussia Dortmund have got problems of their own, particularly in defence, they’ve played four fewer league games so far this season, and should be the fresher of the two teams. Given their strong home record, both this season and in recent years in Europe, I’m backing Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 8/11. 

Bet 2 - Both teams to score & Each team over 2.5 corners @ 5/6 

With 34 goals scored between them already in the league phase, there is little prospect of this meeting of Dortmund and Barcelona ending 0-0. 

Both sides are blessed with more than enough quality in attacking areas to hurt the other, particularly on the flanks. Wingers Gittens, Donyell Malen, Raphinha and Lamine Yamal should all have big roles to play, while Guirassy and Lewandowski are both enjoying good seasons and will fancy their chances of gobbling up any opportunities that come their way. 

It’s a game that may ebb and flow, with favourites Barcelona lacking the kinds of energy levels that might allow them to put a convincing 90 minutes together. I can see both teams having periods of superiority and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Both teams to score and Each team over 2.5 corners at 5/6. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...