Everton vs Liverpool Prediction: Pantomime villain Pickford to pick up early Xmas card

The 245th Merseyside derby takes place at Goodison Park on Saturday (12:30, TNT Sports 1). A resurgent Everton, fresh off a 4-0 midweek thrashing of Wolves, take on local rivals and Premier League leaders Liverpool, who dropped points for the first time since October 27 in Wednesday's 3-3 draw at Newcastle United.

Read on for my Everton vs Liverpool prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, as Arne Slot prepares for his first taste of the Merseyside derby.

Team News

Everton boss Sean Dyche may be tempted to stick with a winning formula this weekend following Wednesday's win over Wolves. That would mean back-to-back starts for Orel Mangala and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who were the two changes Dyche made to his starting XI from last Sunday's 4-0 defeat at Manchester United.

On-loan Chelsea striker Armando Broka made his debut for the club in midweek after arriving at Finch Farm injured on deadline day. The Albania international will hope to step up his return with more minutes on Saturday, but a first start is still a while away for him.

Youssef Chermiti, James Garner and Tim Iroegbunam remain in the treatment room, however.

Football Odds

Liverpool quintet Alisson Becker, Conor Bradley, Ibrahima Konate, Kostas Tsimikas and Diogo Jota are still unavailable for selection but Federico Chiesa is closing in on a return after starting and scoring in Liverpool U21s 4-3 defeat by Danish side Nordsjaelland in the Premier League International Cup on Wednesday. The Italian played an hour before being substituted as planned and has an outside chance of making Saturday's squad.

Harvey Elliott, meanwhile, made his return to the squad last month following a three-month absence and played his first minutes off the bench in the closing stages of last Sunday's 2-0 triumph over Manchester City at Anfield. The 21-year-old was an unused substitute at St James' Park in midweek so he will be hoping for some sort of opportunity to showcase his talents at Goodison Park.

It's unlikely to come in the form of a start, however, with Dominik Szoboszlai primed to replace the suspended Alexis Mac Allister, who picked up a fifth yellow card of the current Premier League campaign on Tyneside to earn himself a one-game ban. Szoboszlai is set to join Curtis Jones, who scored Liverpool's first goal on Wednesday, and ever-present Ryan Gravenberch in a midfield three, with Mohamed Salah, Luis Diaz and probably Cody Gakpo in attack, which would see Darwin Nunez drop down to the bench.

At the back, Caoimhin Kelleher will keep his place in goal despite his error for Newcastle's equaliser as Alisson eases back to full fitness, and he's likely to be joined in the starting XI by Trent Alexander-Arnold, who should replace Jarell Quansah at right-back after only appearing as a second-half substitute at Newcastle.

Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez and Andy Robertson will complete the backline unless Quansah is preferred to Gomez in central defence.

Everton vs Liverpool Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Everton vs Liverpool page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Everton are 7/1 to record back-to-back wins over their local rivals having beaten the Reds 2-0 at Goodison Park in Jurgen Klopp's final Merseyside derby in April. Those odds give the Toffees an implied probability of 12.5%, while Liverpool are 2/5, or a 71.4% chance, to triumph for just the third time in their last 13 visits to Saturday's venue.

A ninth Goodison Park stalemate since October 2012 can be backed at 4/1, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Salah (21/20), Nunez (7/5) and Diaz (7/4) head the anytime goalscorer market, with Calvert-Lewin (3/1) first up for the hosts.

Player to Receive a Card - Jordan Pickford (EVE) @ 11/2

Tipping a goalkeeper to be carded can be risky business but there is a method to the madness of this pick.

Everton number one Jordan Pickford has been shown at least one yellow in his last seven Premier League seasons for the Toffees and has been particularly problematic to referees in the last couple of years, earning six cautions in 2022/23 - a third of which came against Liverpool - and five the following campaign.

The 30-year-old's only Everton booking so far this term came in the 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace at Goodison Park on September 28 but he also saw yellow for England in the Three Lions' 3-0 win over Greece in Athens on November 14 for time-wasting in the 27th minute. That's the beauty of Pickford, he can receive a card for pretty much anything. A bad challenge, time-wasting, arguing with the referee - he's got it all in his locker.

Pickford has history in this fixture having been shown a yellow card for delaying the restart in the latter stages of a goalless draw between the two teams in September 2022 and in the reverse fixture, he was cautioned again toward the end, this time in the 87th minute, after a spat with Liverpool players like Andy Robertson, who was also booked for his role in a fracas.

Then, you have to factor in the challenge he made on Reds skipper Virgil van Dijk in October 2020, with the Dutchman suffering an ACL injury in the act and missing the rest of a miserable season for his side. There's still a bit of bad blood over that, and Pickford is usually the number-one target for Liverpool supporters who know he is a hot-headed character that can be easily wound up.

All of this mixes nicely for a Pickford card on Saturday in what could be another ill-tempered Merseyside derby.

Player Shots on Target - Mohamed Salah (LIV) 3+ Shots on Target @ 11/4

A Wednesday night brace on Tyneside, coupled with Erling Haaland blanking again in Manchester City's 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest on the same night, saw Salah become the outright top scorer in the race for the Premier League Golden Boot. The 'Egyptian King' now has 13 goals in 14 league appearances this season and has Jamie Vardy's record of 11 consecutive Premier League games with a goal in his sights after netting in his last seven.

The 32-year-old is 'only' averaging two shots on target per game but registered four in Liverpool's 3-2 win at Southampton on November 24 and has hit the target at least three times in a game on two other occasions, away to Ipswich Town (three) on August 17 and at home to AFC Bournemouth (four) on September 21. At the time of writing, all three clubs are in the bottom eight, as Everton are, so I like Salah's price of 11/4 to shoot on target at least three times on Saturday against another lowly side.

Of course, a Merseyside derby doesn't often play by the rules of a normal league fixture, but Salah did record two shots on target on his last visit to Goodison in April and managed three - scoring with two of his efforts - in a 4-1 victory for the Reds here in December 2021. He also had four shots on target in the 2-2 draw played out between the two sides there in October 2020.

Liverpool have recorded the most shots on target (89) in the Premier League this season, averaging 6.4 per game, and if they get to that sort of number on Saturday, I'd expect Salah to be leading the charts in that particular statistic as he goes chasing Vardy's record.

Offers

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