Lazio vs Napoli Prediction: Gli Azzurri to get through by any means

Lazio and Napoli meet in the last 16 of the Coppa Italia on Thursday evening (20:00, Premier Sports 1) with I Biancocelesti playing hosts at the Stadio Olimpico. Both sides changed managers in the summer, with Marco Baroni taking charge of the capital club and Antonio Conte tasked with overseeing Gli Azzurri's recovery from a 10th-place finish last season.

Only four points separate Serie A leaders Napoli and fifth-placed Lazio after the first 14 games of the Italian top-flight campaign, setting up an intriguing cup battle in Rome. Read on for my Lazio vs Napoli prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, with the winner fighting for a quarter-final spot against either Inter Milan or Udinese.

Team News

Nuno Tavares, Matias Vecino and Gaetano Castrovilli are all out injured for Lazio, who may still be missing Boulaye Dia, too.

Baroni is likely to make changes to the lineup that started Sunday's 3-1 defeat at Parma, with backup goalkeeper Christos Mandas, Samuel Gigot, Loum Tchaouna and Pedro all vying for promotions from the bench.

Football Odds

Like his opposite number, Conte could switch things up on Thursday, handing opportunities from the off to the likes of Elia Caprile, Juan Jesus, Leonardo Spinazzola, Billy Gilmour, David Neres and Giovanni Simeone. Giacomo Raspadori is another player desperate for minutes after staying rooted to the bench in Napoli's last three games, while Gli Azzurri's star players, such as Scott McTominay, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Romelu Lukaku, could drop out of the starting XI or squad altogether to get some rest.

Pasquale Mazzocchi remains the only injury absentee for Thursday's visitors to the Stadio Olimpico.

Lazio vs Napoli Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Lazio vs Napoli page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Lazio are 13/10 to triumph inside regulation time, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 43.5%, while Napoli are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to take care of business themselves inside 90 minutes.

Meanwhile, the draw, which would send the tie straight to a penalty shootout, can be backed at 2/1. Lazio are 8/11 just to win the tie and Napoli are 1/1 in the same market.

To Win Tie - Napoli @ 1/1

Lazio have been near faultless at the Stadio Olimpico this season, winning eight of their 10 home games, only dropping points in a 2-2 draw with AC Milan in Serie A on August 31 and in a goalless stalemate with Ludogorets in the Europa League last Thursday. They've seen off the likes of OGC Nice (4-1), FC Porto (2-1) and Bologna (3-0), while they were eight games unbeaten - home or away - before Parma put an end to that run on Sunday.

However, their opponents in the cup, Napoli, have lost just twice all season, and only once since suffering a 3-0 defeat at Verona on the opening weekend of the new Serie A campaign. That loss at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi remains their only reverse on the road this term, with their other defeat coming at home against Atalanta on November 3 (0-3).

Gli Azzurri recovered from that loss to La Dea to hold reigning Serie A champions Inter to a 1-1 draw at San Siro before recording back-to-back 1-0 wins at home to AS Roma and away to Torino, results which have them a point clear of closest title challengers Atalanta heading into round 15 this weekend.

Their focus turns to the Coppa Italia beforehand, however, although it remains to be seen just how seriously Conte takes the competition, with the league sure to be his priority especially now that they are ahead at the start of December.

Regardless of their manager's intentions, though, Napoli have a strong squad, with the likes of David Neres and Raspadori bursting at the seams to start a game, and they should be desperate to prove themselves on Thursday.

By contrast, I don't think Lazio's squad is as deep, as evidenced by their inability to fill their quota of substitutes on Sunday. While Parma named a full 13 players, Lazio sat just eight players on their bench, including two goalkeepers. I Biancocelesti are missing some key players, in particular Tavares, Vecino and Dia, which could harm their prospects of progressing to the next round, where they would meet either Inter or Udinese.

I'm expecting a close contest in Rome on Thursday which is why I'm reluctant to pick an outright winner in 90 minutes; instead, I'm backing Napoli to win the tie by any means, with penalties on the agenda if the teams can't be separated in regulation time.

Gli Azzurri have already won a shootout this season, overcoming Modena 4-3 on penalties after playing out a goalless draw with the Serie B side in the first round, so they shouldn't freeze if events are to be decided from 12 yards.

Player to Receive a Card - Samuel Gigot (LAZ) @ 21/10

French defender Samuel Gigot joined Lazio from Olympique Marseille on a season-long loan, with a conditional obligation to buy, on August 30, and has since made seven appearances for the capital club. All three of his starts so far have come in the Europa League, however, so the 31-year-old is still looking for his first start in an Italian competition.

That could well come in the Coppa Italia on Thursday, and he looks like an obvious candidate to receive a card if he does get the nod from the off.

Gigot has already been booked three times in Lazio colours, with all three cautions arriving in his last four outings; in fact, the only game in that period in which he hasn't been shown a card, the 1-0 victory at Monza on November 10, he was only introduced in the second minute of second-half stoppage time.

The experienced centre-back, who can also operate at full-back, was carded seven times in 21 Ligue 1 appearances for Marseille last season, and five times in 26 games the season prior. Before that, he was booked at least seven times in all three of his full Russian Premier League campaigns with Spartak Moscow.

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