Football Bet of the Day: Port Vale can win ill-tempered derby

Monday night may see attention turn to the north-east in the Premier League as Newcastle United face West Ham United, while there are also a couple of games in Serie A for us to take in. However, we’ve turned our attention to a top of the table clash in League 2 between Port Vale and Crewe Alexandra - two historical rivals.

This should be a cracking derby at Vale Park, and below you can find my Football Bet of the Day for Monday, November 25.

With former Sheffield Wednesday manager Darren Moore at the helm, Port Vale find themselves at the top of League 2 having played 16 games so far this season. That’s one more than second-placed Crewe, but they are six points clear of their rivals. 

This truly is a mouth-watering prospect in England’s fourth-tier. Although it may not pass the test for a traditional derby, these two have been battling it out for decades, with Vale’s nearest competitors Stoke simply out of their weight-class since the turn of the century. 

To provide a bit of context - the two clubs are closer in proximity than the likes of Sunderland and Newcastle United so although they aren’t from the same county, the rivalry between the two clubs remains fierce. Another sold-out away end at Vale Park will be testament to that, while the unique decision to stick this game on Sky Sports Football on Monday night is sure to add fireworks to an already feisty atmosphere. 

Port Vale vs Crewe Alexandra Odds

So now we have painted the backdrop to this clash, let’s look at the action on the pitch for our Football Bet of the Day. Moore has got his side winning games this season but interestingly both of these teams are outperforming their underlying statistics right now. 

Vale have only created the 12th-highest amount of xG this season, but it is their strong defence that has carried them up the table. They have the fourth-highest xG against, and rank fourth for xG difference, so it’s fair to suggest they should be a top play-off side rather than the league leaders based on what we have seen so far. 

Crewe on the other hand are massively overperforming under Lee Bell. They are fifth from bottom in terms of xG difference, they are 23rd in terms of xG created and mid-table for xG against. They’ve squeezed every drop out of their performances and have been clinical, but they’ve only scored 19 times in 15 outings, conceding 13 times along the way. 

Omar Bogle and Shilow Tracey are two decent forwards at this level but Crewe simply aren’t creating enough chances for long-term success. Jayden Stockley for Vale on the other hand, is playing a massive part in his club’s success, having got four goals and three assists to his name already. 

I think Crewe’s run of form simply cannot last long and although this is a top of the table clash on paper, I believe there will be a pretty sizeable gap between the two teams in a few months time. Vale are promotion candidates, Crewe are not. That’s how simple this one is in my eyes. 

With Alex not having much of a goal threat despite their lofty position, I believe the best angle to take for this game is to back the home side to win to nil at 7/4. 

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

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