South Africa v India Prediction: 5/1 Axar can help India seal Series win in 4th T20i

South Africa host India on Friday at Johannesburg for the fourth and final T20I of the Series, with India 2-1 up, which starts at 15:00 and is broadcast live on Sky Sports Cricket.  

Jamie Pacheco thinks India should make it back-to-back wins and also has 25/1 and 5/1 selections on the side markets as he takes us through his South Africa vs India Predictions here at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

South Africa  

A look at South Africa's economy rates tells you all you need to know about the sort of day they had on Wednesday. Two went at 11 an over, one at 17 and Marco Jansen was the pick of them with figures of 28/1 off his four. Sure, it was a high-scoring game but had even one more bowler than Jansen showed some control, and it could have been quite a different chase.  

With the bat, five of the Top 7 passed 20, some achievement in the shortest format but unlike India's batsmen, they just didn't kick on. Heinrich Klassen hit an explosive 41 off 22 and that man Jansen an even better 54 off 17 that at one stage looked like he might go on and win the game by himself. A reminder this is a player of serious ability and South Africa may consider promoting him up the order in the right circumstances in future.  

One or both of Gerald Coetzee or Lutho Sipamla may be left out with Ottneil Bartman or Patrick Kruger waiting for their chance.  

Possible XI:  Hendricks, Rickleton, Markram, Stubbs, Klassen, Miler, Jansen, Maharaj, Coetzee/Bartman, Sipamla/Kruger, Simelane. 

India 

A maiden international century from Tilak Varma and a 50 off 25 from Abishek Sharma got India to a formidable total and those Jansen fireworks at the death aside, it was a score that never looked in danger of being chased.  

Crucially, India's bowlers kept things much tighter with two bowlers going at under 8.5 an over off their four overs, which given the game's scoring rate, ended up making all the difference.  

We can consider ourselves a bit unlucky with our bet on Varun Chakravarthy for India top bowler. Having taken his second wicket, he then had Klassen dropped by his skipper Sky Yadav at cover to deny him a third wicket. Then, Arshdeep Singh, on just one wicket at the time, took a wicket in each of the 18th and 20th overs to deny us even a dead-heat. Unfortunate.  

Avesh Khan or Yash Dayal could come in if they decide they need another seamer, with spinner Ravi Bishnoi the most likely to give way if that's the case.  

Possible XI: Abishek Sharma, Samson, Sky Yadav, Tilak Varma, Hardik, Rinku Singh, Ramandeep, Patel, Avesh Khan/Bishnoi, Arshdeep Singh, Chakravarthy.  

Pitch and conditions

We're at the Wanderers in Johannesburg for this one, where 33 T20Is have been hosted over the years. 

But the Proteas certainly haven't had it all their own way here with just one win from their last five, beating the West Indies in March 2023 and losing to Australia, Pakistan, the West Indies and India in Johannesburg since 2020.  

In the defeat to India last December, they witnessed a magnificent century from Sky Yadav, before being bowled out for just 95, chasing 202.  

This is one of the highest-scoring grounds in the world in this format thanks to a good wicket, short boundaries and high altitude that helps for six-hitting.  

200 is a very reasonable target score for the side batting first and it will be a tough choice at the toss, but batting first may just about be the way to go.  

South Africa vs India 4th T20 Odds

Things are pretty even on the match winner market with South Africa 21/10 (implied probability of 49%) playing 8/11 India (implied probability 58%).  

That wasn't fresh content I just wrote ahead of the 4th 20I. That was what I wrote ahead of the third match, where the odds were exactly the same as they are for this one!   

We've avoided this market so far, but it may just be time to play it. And it's India who will be carrying our money.  

Several reasons. SA are just about ahead overall at Johannesburg with 13 wins from 25 games but that really is marginal and as we know, it's just one win in their last five here so this isn't a venue where they've had much success of late.   

They also seem to have batsmen somewhat out of form with only Jansen reaching 50 from three matches while India's batsmen are flying right now. Those three games have seen Indian batters hit two centuries and a fifty and at some extremely high strike rates. At such a high-scoring ground like this one, you're going to be needing in-form batsmen hitting their strides straight away and India look the far more likely of the two to do that.  

Then there are the bowlers. The hosts picked plenty of inexperienced players and it's shown. On tougher pitches where they get some assistance from the pitch, they may handle the pressure if they're taking wickets, but when the ball is flying everywhere, they haven't been able to stem the tide. Spin has worked well for the Indian bowlers and if conditions allow them to pick three spinners again, those three should keep the runs down.  

India it is and they're a strong selection, so it's a rare 2-point bet.