Venezuela vs Brazil Prediction: A shortage of Selecao strikes in Maturin

After a promising start to their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign, winning two and drawing three of their first five games, things have started to unravel for Venezuela, who have taken just two points from a possible 12 this year. La Vinotinto are now outside the top seven, behind Bolivia and in danger of failing to qualify for the tournament which will be held across the USA, Canada and Mexico.

Their next opponents, Brazil, have gone the other way, recovering from three straight defeats at the end of last year to win three of their last four. The two nations face off at the Estadio Monumental de Maturin on Thursday (21:00), and you can build up to the action by checking out my Venezuela vs Brazil prediction, and all the latest team news and match odds, down below.

Team News

Venezuela head coach Fernando 'Bocha' Batista has called up Always Ready's Alain Baroja ahead of Aguilas Doradas goalkeeper Jose David Contreras, although Rafael Romo is expected to retain his place between the sticks.

The Argentine boss has also recalled Eric Ramirez, who plays his football in Argentina with Tigre, and Jhon Murillo from Mexican side Atlas.

CF Montreal striker Josef Martinez hasn't been a part of Venezuela's last two squads and continues to be sidelined by Bocha, while Universidad Catolica's Jhon Chancellor and Parma's Yordan Osorio remain injured and unavailable for selection.

National team stalwarts Alexander Gonzalez (Emelec), Tomas Rincon (Santos) and Salomon Rondon (Pachuca) have all been selected for Venezuela's November qualifiers with Brazil and Chile.

Football Odds

Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr. is back in the Brazil squad after injury kept him out of October wins over Chile (1-2) and Peru (4-0), but there's been bad news over club teammates Rodrygo and Eder Militao, who were both originally named in Dorival Jr.'s list for this month's fixtures with Venezuela and Uruguay.

Rodrgyo limped off in the 20th minute of Real Madrid's 4-0 thrashing of Osasuna on Saturday and was joined in the treatment room by Militao 10 minutes later. The duo are now ruled out of November's qualifiers and have been replaced by Flamengo defender Leo Ortiz and Arsenal winger Gabriel Martinelli.

Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest centre-back Murillo, who scored his first Premier League goal in Sunday's 3-1 defeat to Newcastle United, has received his first senior call-up.

Neymar and Endrick haven't been selected, however, with both struggling for minutes recently - the former due to injury, and the latter behind Kylian Mbappe in the Los Blancos pecking order.

Venezuela vs Brazil Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Venezuela vs Brazil page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Venezuela are 5/1 to beat Brazil for the first time since June 2008, giving La Vinotinto an implied win probability of 16.7%, while the Selecao are 1/2, or a 66.7% chance, to record a third consecutive victory in qualification.

The draw is priced at 13/5, both teams to score at 11/10, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Brazil forward Igor Jesus (7/4) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by Vinicius Jr. (15/8) and Raphinha (21/10), with Rondon (3/1) shortest priced for the hosts.

Away Team Total Goals - Under 1.5 Brazil Goals @ 10/11

Three wins in their last four, including back-to-back victories in October, makes it sound like Brazil are, to an extent, 'back', following a run of just one win in their previous eight competitive internationals stretching back to World Cup qualifiers last year.

However, it should be noted that Brazil's only win in September was 1-0 at home to Ecuador, who have only beaten Bolivia on their travels this campaign, while last month's triumphs were against rock-bottom Chile and second-bottom Peru, and they only beat the former thanks to an 89th-minute winner. The Selecao also lost 1-0 to Paraguay in September, so they're yet to convince me that they have truly turned a corner.

Venezuela, meanwhile, can't seem to buy a win, failing to pick up maximum points in their last six qualifiers, last doing so in a 3-0 victory over Chile on October 17.

However, they can at least lay claim to an unbeaten home record, picking up nine of their 11 points so far in Maturin. They opened up their home campaign with wins over Paraguay (1-0) and Chile before being held to goalless draws by Ecuador and Uruguay, though their most recent game at the Estadio Monumental de Maturin, against reigning World Cup and Copa America champions Argentina, was a spirited 1-1 stalemate.

La Vinotinto also avoided defeat in their reverse fixture with Brazil in October 2023, substitute Eduard Bello popping up in the 85th minute to cancel out Gabriel Magalhaes' strike for the five-time World Cup winners.

Venezuela have only conceded once at home in five qualifiers so far and that was last time out to Argentina, who top Fifa's world rankings.

I'm slightly concerned about their general form and that's why I'm erring on the side of caution a little instead of backing under 0.5 away team total goals at 4/1, especially as Brazil put four past Peru and scored two in Chile last month.

But the Selecao aren't exactly prolific on their travels, scoring just four times across five qualifiers and have blanked away to Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay already.

At just under EVS, I think backing under 1.5 Brazil goals on Thursday is a shrewd move.

Player to Receive a Card - Jon Aramburu (VEN) @ 11/5

Real Sociedad right-back Jon Aramburu opened his account for the senior Venezuela national team during the last international break, scoring the first goal of the game in a 2-1 defeat to Paraguay in Lima. Later in proceedings, the 22-year-old was booked, and I will be zeroing in on his aggressiveness off the ball for this second selection.

Aramburu has only played four qualifiers but has already committed 11 fouls - four away to Bolivia, two at home to Uruguay, two at home to Argentina, and three away to Paraguay last time out, averaging 2.8 fouls per game. Therefore, he can probably consider himself fortunate that his first booking of the campaign only arrived in his fourth match.

The Caracas-born defender has also been busy making his mark in La Liga since making his competition debut against Celta Vigo on January 24 this year. Aramburu featured 11 times in the 2023/24 Spanish top flight, only starting five matches and averaging 49 minutes per game; however, he still averaged a foul per game and received three yellow cards.

This season, Aramburu has played 11 times in La Liga, starting nine matches, and is averaging 1.5 fouls per game. He's been booked four times in La Liga with his most recent indiscretion arriving in the first 20 minutes of last Sunday's 1-0 win over Barcelona, a contest in which he made three fouls - two of them on left-back Alejandro Balde.

Rodrygo started on the left-hand side of Brazil's attack in last month's qualifiers but with the 23-year-old out injured and Vinicius Jr. back in the squad, there's only one man that will be occupying that area of the pitch on Thursday.

Vinicius Jr. has been fouled an average of 1.6 times per game so far this qualification campaign, and his numbers are even higher in La Liga, where he has been fouled an average of 2.9 times per game this season.

He was at his brilliant best on Saturday as Real Madrid beat Osasuna 4-0, netting a hat-trick and winning four free-kicks, and he will be desperate to convert his club form onto the international stage, where he has received criticism.

It all makes for a tough evening ahead for Aramburu, who is likely to take alternative action to deal with the Ballon d'Or runner-up. That's exactly what he did in Real Madrid's 2-0 victory over La Real on September 14, when he committed four fouls - three on Vinicius Jr. - and was booked for the first of his overzealous challenges on the Brazilian.

Aramburu also gave away a penalty in the second half for an infringement on the 24-year-old.

I can see the Venezuela right-back conceding a few free-kicks away and an accumulation of fouls, or even a single bad one, could land him in the referee's notebook.

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