Real Madrid vs Osasuna Prediction: Los Blancos big price to concede

Real Madrid return to the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday, after two bruising home defeats that have sparked a lot of soul searching in the Spanish capital.

It doesn’t take much for there to be talk of a “crisis” at Real Madrid and they are perhaps the only club in Europe where the mood can change quite so quickly, even after the highs of winning both La Liga and the Champions League last term.

However, the concern is certainly understandable given the manner of their Second Half collapse in El Clasico and a miserable performance on Tuesday night against Milan.

Given their league fixture away to Valencia last weekend was postponed, Real Madrid head into this match after those 4-0 and 3-1 defeats and the alarm bells will really start to ring if they also come up short against Osasuna on Saturday lunch-time. Below you can find my Real Madrid vs Osasuna predictions.

Their lack of fluidity in the final third, is also in part a result of the reduced supply with no Toni Kroos pulling the strings from deep this season. While Luka Modrić has at times plugged that gap and Fede Valverde has taken on more of a creative role, there is no natural heir to the German’s throne and Carlo Ancelotti is having to look for new solutions as a result.

It will probably be the defence that is giving the Real Madrid boss the most sleepless nights right now though. Since Dani Carvajal’s season-ending injury, they’ve conceded 10 goals in  four matches, with stand-in right-back Lucas Vázquez unfortunately a clear weak link.

That’s something Osasuna will look to exploit in this game and the visitors will travel to the Bernabéu feeling pretty good about their chances of competing.

That’s partly a result of Real Madrid’s current plight, but it’s also a reflection of the positive season that Osasuna are having. They are riding high in fifth place currently with wins from six of their opening 12 league fixtures under Vicente Moreno, who replaced long-serving boss Jagoba Arrasate in the summer.

Football Odds

Moreno was actually seen as a somewhat underwhelming appointment, but he deserves great credit for the job he has done so far. The highlight was unquestionably a 4-2 win over Barcelona in September, when a brace from Ante Budimir sent the Catalans tumbling to what remains their only dropped points of the season to date in La Liga.

While most of Osasuna’s success has come at home, they did also upset Real Sociedad with a 2-0 victory at the Reale Arena in their most recent away game, while a solitary Budimir penalty was enough for three points against Real Valladolid last weekend.

Unlike Arrasate, who frequently rotated his team and sought competition for places across the pitch, Moreno has gone with a much more settled approach with few changes from game to game.

Budimir, who will lead the line here and has netted an impressive 23 goals in La Liga since the start of last season, has been key to their success. He’s also had great support this season with 22-year-old Aimar Oroz emerging as a real talent in an attacking midfield role, while winger Bryan Zaragoza has been one of the best summer signings in Spain.

Team News

Thibaut Courtois is again missing from the Real Madrid squad due to injury, so Andriy Lunin will continue in goal for Los Blancos.

Aurelien Tchouameni has joined long-term absentees Carvajal and David Alaba on the sidelines, but Rodrygo is now fit again. That’s likely to mean a return to 4-3-3 for the hosts with Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga and Jude Bellingham likely to form the midfield.

As for Osasuna, they are only expected to make one change from the side that defeated Real Valladolid last time out. That’s a result of an injury for Juan Cruz which should see summer signing Abel Bretones return at left-back.

Otherwise, they have a fully fit squad and are likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 system, with Budimir up top.

Real Madrid vs Osasuna Odds 

Despite those recent losses, Real Madrid still head into this game as the red hot favourites at 2/11 to win this match. Osasuna are available at 14/1, while the Draw is priced at 6/1.

You can also back Osasuna or Draw at 100/30 in the Double chance market here, while Both teams to score is on offer at 1/1. You can back the visitors to win either half at 4/1.

If you see Los Blancos bouncing back with a much improved display, Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap is priced at 4/7, while Real Madrid -2.00 is on offer at 7/5. You can also back Real Madrid to win and Over 3.5 goals at 13/10.

Backing the Second half in the Highest scoring half market at 1/1 looks good, given 86% of the goals in Real Madrid home league fixtures this term have come after the interval.

Meanwhile, you can back Mbappe to silence his doubters and score anytime at 3/5. Vinicius is available at 1/1 to build on his midweek penalty, by netting again.

From an Osasuna perspective, Ante Budimir is the standout option at 3/1 to register his seventh league goal of the campaign in this match.

Over 0.5 Osasuna goals @ 10/11

While Osasuna may not be blessed with as much talent as Barcelona or Milan, they do have one of La Liga’s most prolific strikers and they are causing problems on the flanks which suggests this will be no easy ride for the Real Madrid backline.

The absence of Courtois is not helping with the uncertainty that we’ve seen in recent games. Centre-back Éder Militão is yet to get back to his best level following a serious injury sustained early last season and with Lucas Vázquez currently really struggling at right-back, there’s plenty to encourage an Osasuna side that has only failed to score on two occasions this season.

Given that, I’m backing Over 0.5 Osasuna goals at 10/11 here.

Lucas Vazquez to be carded @ 18/5

For a number of years, Lucas Vazquez has been a very effective deputy right-back for Real Madrid, often rotating in for Dani Carvajal in favourable fixtures and doing a good job, particularly going forwards.

However, he has never been a natural full-back and with Carvajal sidelined for the remainder of the 2024/25 season, Vázquez has been thrust into a regular starting role in recent weeks and in truth he has been badly exposed at times by a number of opposing wingers.

Osasuna are likely to target him and they have the perfect player to do that, with Bryan Zaragoza one of the most electric wide players in the division. He seems to thrive in the bigger games too, causing huge problems for Barceona when he was still a Granada player last season, while he was instrumental in his current side’s victory over Barça earlier this term.

I expect Zaragoza to be given licence to run at the 33-year-old Real Madrid right-back and I think there’s real value in going with Vazquez to be carded at 18/5.

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