Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction: Kai to catch ref’s eye on Stamford Bridge return

The highlight fixture of the Premier League weekend comes at Stamford Bridge on Sunday afternoon (16:30, Sky Sports Main Event) as Chelsea and Arsenal lock horns in a London derby.

Below is my Chelsea vs Arsenal prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this meeting between two old rivals.

Team News

Chelsea are waiting to see if Jadon Sancho returns after a three-game absence from the squad caused by injury and a bout of illness.

Blues head coach Enzo Maresca changed his entire starting XI for Thursday's 8-0 hammering of Armenian side Noah in the Uefa Conference League and is expected to revert to the lineup that began last Sunday's 1-1 draw with Manchester United at Old Trafford, meaning returns for the likes of Robert Sanchez, Reece James, Moises Caicedo, Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson.

Football Odds

Arsenal are sweating on the fitness of influential England midfielder Declan Rice who missed the Gunners' 1-0 defeat to Inter Milan in the Uefa Champions League on Wednesday.

Kai Havertz was forced to play slightly deeper as a result, helping out midfielders Thoma Partey and Mikel Merino, and might have to perform a similar role on Sunday if 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri isn't trusted.

Jorginho is another option in midfield, while Martin Odegaard made his long-awaited return as a substitute at San Siro, but it remains to be seen whether he is fit enough to start at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea vs Arsenal Odds

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Chelsea are 7/4, or a 36.4% chance, to beat their London rivals on Sunday, while Arsenal are 8/5 to claim all three points, giving the Gunners an implied win probability of 38.5%.

A draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 4/7, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/6.

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score - Chelsea or Draw & Yes @ 5/4

Since losing 2-0 on the opening day of the Premier League season to reigning champions Manchester City, Chelsea are eight games unbeaten at Stamford Bridge in all competitions, which has includes league wins over Brighton & Hove Albion (4-2) and Newcastle United (2-1), as well as draws with Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest (both 1-1). As you can see, both teams have scored in all four of those matches.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have lost three of their last four away games, suffering Premier League defeats at AFC Bournemouth (2-0) and Newcastle United (1-0), as well as a loss to Inter Milan in the Champions League in midweek. They also drew 0-0 with Atalanta in Bergamo and 2-2 with Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in the second half of September, meaning that their only away victory in the last six has come at EFL Championship side Preston North End in the Carabao Cup on October 30 (0-3).

Home or away, Arsenal have only won two of their last six contests and look desperately devoid of ideas up front, blanking in back-to-back defeats to Inter and Newcastle.

I do think the Gunners can get on the scoresheet in west London this week, though, considering Chelsea's poor defensive record that has seen the Blues keep just two Premier League clean sheets all season - none at Stamford Bridge, and none since September 21, when they followed up a 1-0 win at Bournemouth seven days earlier with a 3-0 triumph over West Ham United at the London Stadium.

However, Arsenal aren't exactly watertight at the back and haven't kept a clean sheet in their last six league games, music to the ears of their hosts on Sunday who have found the net in all nine top-flight outings since being held by Man City in their opening weekend defeat.

Both teams to score and Chelsea to win or draw looks like the play here at just over EVS.

Player to Receive a Card - Kai Havertz (ARS) @ 23/10

Former Chelsea hero Havertz, who scored the only goal in the 2021 Champions League Final against Manchester City to help the Blues win the competition for the second time in their history, is likely to play a key role in Arsenal's attack on Sunday.

The 25-year-old wasn't in the squad for the 2-2 draw between the sides at Stamford Bridge last season but bagged a brace in Arsenal's 5-0 routing of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium in April.

He kept himself out of the referee's notebook in that game, unsurprisingly considering the Gunners' dominance on the night, but he was shown 11 yellow cards in 37 Premier League appearances in 2023/24.

The Germany international managed to evade the referee's ire in Arsenal's first nine league games this season before finding himself in the book last weekend against Newcastle.

The statistics show he's probably been a bit fortunate to go so long without a caution as he is averaging 1.9 fouls per game in the competition, big numbers for someone with just one yellow to his name.

Havertz is also averaging 2.2 fouls per game in this season's Champions League, highlighting just how aggressive of a player he is, and at his old stomping ground, where he could come in for some flak from his former supporters, it wouldn't surprise me to see him pick up back-to-back yellows in the Premier League.

Offers

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