Red Star Belgrade vs Barcelona Prediction: Barca to win meeting of former champions

Barcelona are the form team in European football right now and the Hansi Flick roadshow rolls on to Belgrade this Wednesday as the Catalan giants aim to close in on a place in the knockout stage of the Champions League.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon has previewed this one for us and given us his Red Star Belgrade vs Barcelona prediction.

Football Odds

It’s a meeting of the 1991 and 1992 European champions. Younger football fans may struggle to get their head around the idea that Red Star Belgrade were once the cream of the crop on the European continent, but the Serbian side won the competition the season before Barcelona broke their own European Cup duck at Wembley against Sampdoria.

Three decades on and the European football landscape is very different, with little prospect of Red Star or any other club from the Balkans challenging in the latter stages of the Champions League these days.

Having narrowly seen off Norwegian side Bodø/Glimt in the play-off round to reach the inaugural league phase, the Serbian champions have so far looked slightly out of their depth at this level.

They were competitive in their opening game, going down 2-1 at home to Benfica, with a late strike from Angolan winger Milson not enough to salvage a point. However, since then they’ve been outclassed in two away fixtures, losing 4-0 against Inter and 5-1 at Monaco.

That leaves Vladan Milojević’s side with an absolute mountain to climb in terms of trying to make progress in the competition. They may need to win three of their final five fixtures to stand any chance of making the top 24 and a place in the knockout phase play-offs.

That’s highly likely to be beyond Red Star’s capabilities. While they’ve reeled off 11 straight victories in the Serbian SuperLiga to open up a 10 point advantage at the top, the level of the Champions League is several steps up and they head into matchday four with the joint worst defensive record in the competition.

That’s not to say it will be all smooth sailing for Barcelona at the atmospheric Red Star Stadium which is sure to be rocking on Wednesday night.

It’ll be a new experience for several of Barça’s young players and a test of character as much as anything. There has been little sign of Flick’s young charges buckling under the pressure though, and they’ve risen to virtually every challenge they’ve faced so far this term.

It’s six straight victories in all competitions for Barcelona. They’ve rattled in 24 goals across that period, conceding just three times. The record is all the more impressive when you consider they’ve played Bayern Munich and Real Madrid during that period.

Having swept aside two of the favourites to win this competition with dominant 4-1 and 4-0 victories, Barça now surely have to be viewed as serious Champions League contenders themselves.

Not since their second leg capitulation at Anfield in 2019 have the Catalans reached the last four in Europe, but it feels like Barça fans have reason to believe again. Youngsters Lamine Yamal, Pau Cubarsí and Marc Casadó have really stepped up this season and with a number of players back from injury, there is suddenly real depth to Flick’s squad, to supplement a relatively settled starting eleven that has been firing.

Despite significant financial restraints, Barcelona also look to have struck gold with their one major summer signing. Dani Olmo has taken his exceptional Euro 2024 form into La Liga. His early brace on Saturday helped seal a comfortable 3-1 win in the derby against Espanyol, with the Spain international averaging a goal every 57 minutes so far for his new club.

Team News:

Red Star have a few injury concerns heading into this match. Winger Peter Olayinka is sidelined, while they also have doubts over their first choice keeper Omri Glazer and young defender Ognjen Mimovic. Neither featured in their 3-0 league victory over FK Vojvodina on Sunday.

They switched to a 5-3-2 system for their most recent Champions League game against Monaco and may try something similar here, with Senegalese forward Cherif Ndiaye potentially their main attacking outlet.

As for the visitors, Barcelona are still missing Marc-André ter Stegen, Ronald Araújo, Ferrán Torres, Marc Bernal, Andreas Christensen and Eric García due to injuries.

We may see light rotation from Flick, with Jules Koundé expected to return at right-back following a weekend rest. The German also has more options in midfield now, so it’s very possible that we could see Frenkie de Jong come into the side here, with Fermín López and Gavi also options should he want fresh legs.

Match Odds: Red Star Belgrade vs Barcelona

Unsurprisingly, Barcelona are the clear favourites at 1/6 to win this game. You can back the Draw at 13/2, while Red Star Belgrade are priced at 14/1 to claim a famous European scalp.

You can also back Red Star or Draw at 18/5 in the Double Chance market. If you see it being tighter than many expect, the hosts are available at 6/4 with a +2.00 Handicap.

Barcelona have won five of their last six games by three or more goals though. You can back Barça -2.00 Handicap at 6/5 here, while the visitors are priced at 10/11 to win the game to nil.

With 17 goals in 15 club games this term, Robert Lewandowski is the red hot favourite at 5/2 to open the scoring, while he’s priced at 4/7 to score anytime in this match. You can also back the Polish international to score two or more goals at 13/5, while he’s 11/1 to net a hat-trick.

Raphinha did just that against Bayern Munich on the previous matchday and the in-form Brazilian is priced at 23/20 to score anytime in this game. From a home perspective, you can take your pick with Bruno Duarte, Aleksandar Katai and Cherif Ndiaye all on offer at 9/2 to score anytime.

Barcelona & Over 3.5 goals @ 21/20

Red Star have been convincingly beaten in their last two Champions League games and are averaging 3.67 goals conceded across the league phase so far. While they tend to be more competitive at home in Europe, that really doesn’t bode well for their chances of dealing with a free-scoring Barça attack that has put much superior sides to the sword in recent weeks.

The visitors do take a chance by pushing high up the pitch and leaving space in behind though, so there’s every chance the Serbian champions get on the scoresheet at some point in this game, but it may be little more than a consolation.

I’m backing Barcelona and Over 3.5 goals at 21/20, a bet that has landed in five of their last six matches in all competitions.

Bet Builder - Barcelona over 1.5 goals & Robert Lewandowski 2+ shots on target @ 8/11

There have only been two occasions this season when Barcelona have failed to score at least twice and one of those was the Champions League trip to Monaco when they were reduced to 10 men in just the 10th minute. It’s hard to see them not scoring at least a couple here, up against what has been a leaky Red Star defence so far in the competition.

Robert Lewandowski is likely to be at the centre of everything they do again. With no real alternative in the number nine role, the 36-year-old has started every single Barça game so far this season and there’s no reason to think he’ll be rested here.

He’s had at least two shots on target in seven of his last nine club appearances and in a favourable fixture, he ought to have plenty of opportunities to improve on that record. Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Barcelona over 1.5 goals and Robert Lewandowski 2+ shots on target at 8/11.

Football Betting Tips, from Betfred Insights.