Stoke City vs Derby County Prediction: Another draw on the cards

Stoke gave an excellent account of themselves in the Carabao Cup in midweek but were knocked out as James Bree scored a late winner for Premier League outfit Southampton. It was a blow after a strong display from the Potters, but now they must turn their attention back to the bread and butter of the Championship. 

On Saturday lunchtime, they host Derby County (12:30, Sky Sports Football), looking to climb the table after going five games in all competitions without a win. Meanwhile, the Rams are plodding along nicely, and are currently sat in 12th position in the league table. Below you will find my Stoke City vs Derby County prediction featuring betting tips and team news. 

Team News

Narcis Pelach made eight changes for the midweek test at Southampton, with Jack Bonham and Andre Vidigal handed their first starts of the season. Ashley Phillips made his second start in a row under the boss, and scored a wonderful backheel, so perhaps he is in line for another starting bow against Derby. 

We can expect a lot of the players who were rested in midweek to come back in here, with the likes of goalkeeper Viktor Johansson, centre-back Ben Gibson and Wouter Burger all set to start. Stoke need a response to their poor form and Tom Cannon could start once again up front having scored on the South Coast. 

Football Odds

For Derby, they’ve had the entire week to prepare for this game and given they are unbeaten in four, we are unlikely to see drastic changes. Kayden Jackson, Nathaniel Mendez-Lang and Jerry Yates make up a physical front three, but the latter does need to produce more goals to go with his hard work. Yates has scored just once in 10 Championship appearances and there’s an argument to be made that Corey Blackett-Taylor could offer more productivity in the final third, if Jackson was played down the middle. 

However, Warne loves a player in the mould of Yates, and he has been part of a successful team of late. Dajaune Brown got his first Derby goal v Hull but was later withdrawn having picked up a knock. It is one the 19-year-old will hope to recover from to play some part in the Potteries. Elsewhere on the injury front, attacker Tawanda Chiwera is out of action until December, David Ozoh is sidelined until November and Ryan Nyambe has missed the last two games with a knee issue. 

Stoke City vs Derby County Odds

Stoke are priced at 23/20 to win this game, with Derby available at 21/10. That gives the home side an implied win probability of 46%, while a draw can be backed at 11/5. Over 2.5 goals is 10/11, BTTS is 8/11 and Tom Cannon is the favourite to open the scoring at 6/1. 

Draw @ 11/5

Derby have certainly exceeded all expectations so far in the Championship with many pre-season pundits, me included, believing they would be mired in a relegation scrap this term. That may still turn out to be the case, but for now, the Rams are competitive and picking up points under Paul Warne. 

Given they have had extra rest heading into this one, and have drawn their last three games against opponents of a similar level in the form of Hull, Oxford and Millwall, I’m happy to back them to avoid defeat here, but I think it is unlikely that they will take all three points. Meanwhile Stoke clearly have some quality, but I’m not sure things are quite clicking under Pelach yet. They are going to target all three points on home soil, but I think they will have to settle for one. 

Stoke have also drawn their last two home games, and the 6-1 hammering they gave Portsmouth certainly seems like an anomaly given the level of performance we have seen since. I'm more than happy to back a draw at 11/5 in this one.