Empoli vs Inter Milan Prediction: Thuram on the mark in 11/2 Inter win?

Inter Milan will look to bounce back from dropping a 4-2 lead to Juventus at the weekend when they travel to the Carlo Castellani on Wednesday to face Empoli in Serie A (kick-off 17:30 BST, 18:30 local).

The Nerazzurri’s 4-4 draw in the Derby d’Italia was breathless, but how will that sort of drama be replicated in Tuscany? Here are my Empoli vs Inter Milan predictions.

Team News

Empoli boss Roberto D’Aversa could do with a full squad available as his side come up against the champions in a busy three-game week.

Alas, the Azzurri are missing Samuele Perisan and Tyronne Ebuehi as well as Saba Sazonov, who underwent surgery in September on his anterior cruciate knee ligament injury.

Sebastiano Esposito will also be missing against his parent club, with the 22-year-old forward now on his seventh loan spell out of San Siro since he last played for Inter back in 2020.

Inter head coach Simone Inzaghi will undoubtedly make changes given the workload ahead for his side and the emotional and physical toll of Sunday’s events at the Giuseppe Meazza.

Piotr Zielinski was withdrawn with a thigh injury during the second half of the 4-4 draw, having twice scored from the spot in that breathless five-goal first half.

He will therefore be of concern, although Inzaghi might risk him if possible given that Hakan Calhanoglu’s fitness is also uncertain.

There’s still no Francesco Acerbi or Carlos Augusto for Inter, while this may be seen as an opportunity for La Beneamata to rest anyone else who is not quite 100 per cent with Venezia, Arsenal and Napoli all on the horizon over the next 11 days.

Empoli vs Inter Milan Odds

The Scudetto winners are obvious favourites here, with Betfred pricing them up at 2/5. Empoli can be backed for the win at 13/2, with 18/5 available on the draw.

The handicap -1 market offers potentially more interesting odds, with Inter 6/5 against the one-goal start, Empoli 15/8 with the advantage and 23/10 on the adjusted draw.

Inter to win 2-0 @ 11/2

Inter’s eight-goal classic against Juventus was extraordinary in many aspects. It was the first ever 4-4 draw between the two sides in 252 stagings of the ‘Derby d’Italia’, with no other occurrence of both teams scoring three or more.

Throw in the fact that it came after a run in which Juve had conceded just one goal in eight games to open the Serie A season, and you can see how it came completely out of the blue.

Should we expect more of the same from the Nerazzurri on Wednesday night? No. We shouldn’t.

Classically, champion outfits go to places like Empoli and play just well enough to keep the home side at arm’s length. Sure, Inter have already gone to Genoa and Monza this season and left with only a point each time, but there’s been a bit more about them since those early away trips.

They’ve gone to Udinese and Roma and picked up wins, and collected seven points from nine in the Champions League, and for about 70 minutes on Sunday looked set to really put a marker down against unbeaten Juve.

And the one thing they will have within their hangover from dropping those two points at San Siro is a desire to take it out on somebody. In Empoli, a team with just seven goals in nine matches so far, they face a team who might not have the wherewithal to fight back if Inter get ahead.

This, to me, has a classic 2-0 away win written all over it. Big club needs a win. Gets one.

The 11/2 odds imply a 15.4% probability of such an outcome in Inter’s favour, but we’ve all seen enough Serie A football down the years to know that’s exactly the sort of result we should expect. That makes this a value pick in my mind.

Football Odds

Marcus Thuram anytime goalscorer @ 7/5

Part of me is tempted to go for it and stick my name to a Thuram first goalscorer tip, with Betfred offering 9/2 for him to break the deadlock. But having gone for the 2-0 scoreline on the nose, this one plays things a little safer.

And I say ‘safer’ because the Frenchman has been quite the bagsman in Serie A this season. He has seven goals to his name in eight appearances so far, despite having drawn a blank at the weekend while all hell was breaking loose around him.

He’s really beginning to hit his stride, with those seven strikes already taking him to more than half of his entire return in 2023/24 when he netted 13 goals in 35 league appearances.

There’s a bit of an anomaly in there, in that the 27-year-old has only scored in three matches thus far (two each against Genoa and Atalanta, and a hat-trick in the 3-2 win over Torino). But I reckon he’s in for another good night at the Castellani with a goal at some point.

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