Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace Prediction: Duran to carry on scoring run as starter

One of five all-Premier League contests in the Carabao Cup fourth round takes place at Villa Park on Wednesday (19:45, Sky Sports+) as Aston Villa host Crystal Palace.

Below you can find my Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this cup tie in Birmingham.

Team News

Unai Emery made wholesale changes to Villa's starting XI for their third-round cup clash at Wycombe Wanderers, which they won 2-1 at Adams Park on September 24. Only Amadou Onana kept his place from a 3-1 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers three days prior, and I expect Emery to ring the changes again in midweek, perhaps not to the same extent.

Australian goalkeeper Joe Gauci replaced Emi Martinez between the sticks in the last round and he should get another chance on Wednesday, while Ian Maatsen and Kosta Nedeljkovic are likely to come in at full-back again.

Dutch pair Sil Swinkels and Lamare Bogarde started together at centre-back in High Wycombe but it's unlikely the youngsters are both thrown in from the start again; perhaps Bogarde will earn another start alongside a more experienced defender, such as Diego Carlos. Tyrone Mings is another option at the heart of defence having returned to the last two matchday squads following more than a year spent on the sidelines.

Boubacar Kamara had a long-term injury himself but has appeared off the bench in Villa's last two games, a 2-0 win over Bologna in the Uefa Champions League last Tuesday and Saturday's 1-1 draw with AFC Bournemouth, and could earn his first start in over six months against Crystal Palace.

Emiliano Buendia started and scored against Wycombe and is likely to come back into the starting XI on Wednesday alongside Leon Bailey and Jhon Duran, while Jaden Philogene appears a certainty to begin the match after suspension ruled him out on the weekend.

Ollie Watkins, John McGinn and Morgan Rogers are among those who may be dropped to the bench, or taken out of the squad entirely.

Football Odds

Palace won their first Premier League game of the season at the ninth attempt on Sunday, beating Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 at Selhurst Park. Head coach Oliver Glasner must now decide whether to keep faith with a winning team to gain some momentum ahead of a trip to Wolves on Saturday evening.

On-loan Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Matt Turner is yet to make his debut for the Eagles but he will be hoping for a start at Villa Park, with Nathaniel Clyne and Joel Ward experienced options in defence if Glasner wished to rest first-choice defenders like Marc Guehi, Maxence Lacroix and Daniel Munoz.

Will Hughes, Daichi Kamada, Jeffrey Schlupp and Eddie Nketiah could also come into the lineup after being named as substitutes against Spurs.

Chadi Riad, Chris Richards, Matheus Franca and Cheick Doucoure remain injured, however, while Jefferson Lerma was withdrawn after 22 minutes on Sunday and is likely to be out of action for a little while.

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Aston Villa are 9/10 to get the job done in regulation time on Wednesday, giving the Villans an implied win probability of 52.6%, while Crystal Palace are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance, to do the same.

The draw, which would send the tie straight to a penalty shoot-out, is priced at 5/2, and both teams to score is available at 4/5.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 4/5

A simple one to start with - I'm backing both teams to score in regulation time on Wednesday.

This has been a winning bet in 78 per cent (seven) of Villa's nine Premier League matches in 2024/25, including their last two against AFC Bournemouth (1-1) and Fulhm (3-1), the first of which came at Villa Park on Saturday.

It's not been as frequent for Palace, who have seen 44 per cent (four) of their nine league games end with at least a goal on either side.

However, like their hosts on Wednesday, Palace's last fixture in this competition, a 2-1 win over Queens Park Rangers, saw both teams score.

Villa Park isn't an easy venue for opposition teams to go but with Emery expected to ring the changes, and Palace buoyed by their first Premier League victory of the season on Sunday, the visitors should back themselves to find the net in Birmingham.

Villa, meanwhile, have scored in 11 of their 13 outings this term - only Arsenal and Manchester United have denied them from finding the net in 2024/25 - and I'm not backing Palace, yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels, to stop them from scoring on Wednesday.

Anytime Goalscorer - Jhon Duran (AVL) @ 6/4

It feels like a colleague or I back a Duran goal every time Villa are due to play, so forgive the repetition here, but I am once again suggesting that the Colombian will find the net.

The 20-year-old has seven goals in 13 appearances for the Villans this season despite making just two starts, and he has seized the opportunity when he has been handed a go from the off.

Duran's first start of the 2024/25 campaign came in the last round of the Carabao Cup and while it took him until the 85th minute, he did get off the mark in the competition with a successful spot-kick. His second start, at home to Bologna in the Champions League last Wednesday, saw the Colombian net in the 64th minute before being taken off shortly after.

After being restricted to a substitute appearance on Saturday, it would be a huge shock if Duran didn't start against Palace on Wednesday, and that makes him an obvious pick to score at Villa Park, which would make it five goals in his last seven games at the stadium.

It's not outrageous odds but I think 6/4 is still worth taking on as he has shown his immense abilities when given the chance, and I expect him to continue to send reminders to his manager as he seeks to nail down a starting role.

Offers

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