Portsmouth vs Sheff Wed Prediction: Bannan the 11/1 wild card in Fratton battle

Vital points are on offer at the bottom end of the Championship on Friday night when basement boys Portsmouth host Sheffield Wednesday at Fratton Park (kick-off 20:00 BST, Sky Sports Football).

Wednesday have failed to score in their two games since the international break, while Pompey will be looking to bounce back from their disappointing 2-0 loss to Cardiff City in midweek. Here are my Portsmouth vs Sheff Wed predictions with team news and match odds.

Team News

Pompey have something of a crisis in goal, with Nicolas Schmid having gone off with a head injury in Tuesday’s defeat in South Wales. The summer signing is likely to be ruled out due to concussion protocols, meaning Jordan Archer will be in line for his first start for the club after coming on for the Austrian in midweek.

John Mousinho is already without last season’s ever-present Will Norris, who was dropped after the 6-1 loss to Stoke City and has since picked up an MCL injury. If Schmid is ruled out, Pompey are likely to recall fourth-choice keeper Toby Steward from his loan spell at sixth-tier Tonbridge Angels.

Elsewhere, Paddy Lane is another doubt having also departed early at the Cardiff City Stadium. The attacking midfielder suffered an achilles problem, and could be replaced by Kusini Yengi. The Australian was impressive when coming on for Lane 15 minutes into Tuesday’s loss.

Wednesday have a number of options available to them having welcomed back Josh Windass from injury for the final 30 minutes of Tuesday’s goalless draw with Swansea City at Hillsborough.

Danny Rohl has decisions to make in the forward line, with a lack of composure in the final third having been their greatest sticking point of late.

Ike Ugbo could come back in for Jamal Lowe, or there might be a starting shirt for former Pompey front man Michael Smith if the German decides on a more functional attacking approach.

At the back, Dominic Iorfa is now fully fit and may be a contender, although Yan Valery, Di’Shon Bernard and particularly Akin Famewo have been in impressive form as a three-man central unit.

Portsmouth vs Sheff Wed Odds

League positioning holds sway in the minds of the bookies, with Betfred marking the Owls as favourites for the win.

They are 5/4 to take home three points, with Pompey 9/4 to record only their second victory of the season and a first on home soil.

You can get 23/10 for the draw, while it’s 8/11 for both teams to score.

Under 1.5 Total Goals @ 5/2

Portsmouth and Wednesday are familiar foes after their meetings in League 1 in recent seasons, and while the two games they played at Hillsborough between 2021 and 2023 produced 11 goals in total (4-1 to Wednesday and a 3-3 draw), their clashes at Fratton Park were far more cagey.

Massimo Luongo’s sending-off was the biggest moment of note in a 0-0 draw in PO4 in 2021/22, while a very early Windass goal settled the following season’s encounter despite another Wednesday red card for Iorfa in the closing stages.

Throw forward to the present time, and neither of these teams are particularly prolific. Both sides have 11 goals to their name in 11 games so far this term, and while their defences have been shaky at the best of times I just can’t look at these two outfits and conjure up the word ‘firepower’.

Since hammering ‘Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth Argyle’ 4-0 on the opening day, Wednesday have scored more than a single goal only twice in the league, while the same is true of Pompey since their 3-3 draw at Leeds United in their return to the Championship.

So forgive me for going for a repeat of my winning 9/4 tip on Tuesday night, but I’m looking at a low-scoring encounter again on Friday at 5/2 and an implied probability of 28.6%.

Much of the statistical evidence backs it up, while anyone who has seen these two’s games of late and isn’t emotionally invested won’t think twice about heading out of the house instead of watching this one.

Football Odds

Barry Bannan first goalscorer @ 11/1

Ok, hear me out on this one.

Sure, Barry Bannan has only 17 goals to his name in 344 career appearances in the Championship.

Yes, he has only once scored more than two goals in an entire season in the top two tiers (five in the Champ in 2018/19).

But his strikes in back-to-back games in September against Queens Park Rangers and Luton Town were indicative of what the little Scot can offer in Rohl’s side these days.

Since the loan signing of Shea Charles from Southampton in late August, Bannan has greater license to make runs deep into opposition territory. And his goal at Luton in particular was evidence of exactly the kind of timing and technique that the Wednesday skipper can bring to the party.

So given what I’ve said about Wednesday’s meek forward line, it might be goals from other areas on which they will be relying. And in Bannan they have somebody who is in form and as confident as ever in front of goal.

Whereas normally a Bannan goal is followed by the quip that ‘That’s his one for the season,’ I reckon he has more in him in this more adventurous role he has been given.

And with the likelihood of a goalfest being low, the 18/5 anytime goalscorer odds are overlooked here for an 11/1 value pick. The 34-year-old’s two goals earlier in the season were also openers, after all.

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