Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: Italiano’s side to end October unbeaten

Perth Glory ended last season disastrously as they lost their final four Australia A-League Men's games, shipping 23 goals and suffering 8-0 and 7-1 humiliations to Melbourne City and Sydney FC, respectively. Things have begun just as badly this term as they were thrashed 6-1 at Macarthur last Sunday on the league's opening weekend, and on Saturday (11:45, TNT Sports 2) they face a tricky test against last season's Premiership runners-up, Wellington Phoenix.

Below you can find my Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this second-round clash at HBF Park.

Team News

Nathanael Blair, Cristian Caicedo and Will Freney are all in Perth Glory's extended squad for Saturday's game, while Nikola Mileusnic, who came off the bench late last weekend to make his debut for the club, has been omitted due to injury. The 31-year-old joins Lachlan Barr, Mustafa Amini, Josh Risdon and former Wellington Phoenix midfielder Nicholas Pennington in the treatment room.

The Glory have been forced to deny rumours in recent days that they are actively looking to offload captain and last season's A-League Men's Golden Boot winner, Adam Taggart, to save on his wages. The 31-year-old will hope to put that speculation to one side on Saturday and score his first league goal of the campaign after blanking in Sydney last time out.

Head coach David Zdrilic could make several changes behind his talisman, however, following last Sunday's debacle at Campbelltown Stadium. The Glory were 5-0 down at half-time before Khoa Ngo, Adam Bugarija and Anas Hamzaoui were introduced at the start of the second half for Hiroaki Aoyama, Luke Bodnar and Luis Canga.

Bugarija did his chances of earning a start no harm by scoring Perth's only goal of the game, although it was merely a consolation.

Football Odds

Wellington Phoenix kicked off their league season with a 1-1 draw at home to Western United last Sunday. That may seem like a poor result for a side that finished runners-up to champions Central Coast Mariners in 2023/24, but they were punching above their weight throughout the campaign and lost several key players during the off-season, while they have a considerable injury list to contend with, too.

Paulo Retre, Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues, Lukas Kelly-Heald and Marco Rojas remain sidelined for the Nix, who have omitted David Ball and Luke Supyk from this week's squad - the former presumably for fitness reasons.

Stefan Colakovski is in line to make his debut, though, after missing the Nix's opening-round stalemate, and he's been joined in the extended squad list by Xuan Loke.

Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Saturday's hosts are 7/4 to respond with a victory, giving them an implied win probability of 36.4%, while the visitors are 5/4, or a 44.4% chance, to beat the Glory for a third time in the past 12 months.

The most recent meeting between the sides ended in a goalless draw at HBF Park in February; you can get 12/5 for another stalemate on Saturday, and 14/1 for back-to-back 0-0's.

Both teams to score is priced at 1/2 and over 2.5 total goals at 4/7, while Taggart (6/5) and Wellington striker Kosta Barbarouses (7/5) are considered the game's most likely anytime goalscorers.

Double Chance & BTTS - Draw or Wellington Phoenix & Yes @ 21/20

It's difficult to back Perth to take all three points after an abomination of a performance in their opening match against Macarthur. They ended last season horrendously, failing to win their last 10 games en route to collecting the wooden spoon, and it doesn't look like much has changed in the intervening months.

The only positive I can offer is that they aren't quite as bad at home as they are away; the Glory picked up just six points on their travels last season, five fewer than the next-worst Western United (11), but three clubs claimed fewer points at home than their total of 16 at HBF Park.

Meanwhile, including August's 4-4 Australia Cup draw with Melbourne City, which saw the Glory progress to the quarter-finals on penalties, Perth have scored in their last six games at HBF Park, most recently drawing a blank there in a goalless draw with this weekend's opponents, Wellington, on February 24.

As a result, I'm happy to back Zdrilic's side to get on the scoresheet at home, particularly with Taggart still leading the line.

However, they haven't kept a clean sheet in their last 14 games across all competitions, while the Nix have scored in their last nine regular-season A-League Men's matches, so it would be a surprise to see the hosts shut out the New Zealanders this weekend.

The Nix are also unbeaten in their last 10 meetings with the Glory, last tasting defeat in this fixture in August 2020.

I've got great admiration for their head coach, Giancarlo Italiano, and the way he masterminded their top-two finish last season. But, several key performers have since left the Wellington side, and last weekend's stalemate at home to Western United showed that their new-look team may take some time to gel.

If this game was at Sky Stadium there's no question that I would be backing the Nix to take all three points, but Italiano's side aren't as strong away from home and are winless in their last six matches on Australian soil.

Therefore, I'm playing it slightly safe here with the double chance result on Wellington and both teams to score, which has landed in four of the last five head-to-heads.

Most Corners - Perth Glory @ 9/10

Only the Central Coast Mariners (4.2) averaged fewer corners won per game than Wellington Phoenix (4.3) in the A-League Men's last season, a strange quirk considering they were the top two teams by a considerable distance. It's not as surprising when glancing at the possession statistics, however, as CCM and the Nix featured eighth and 10th in that particular table.

The Glory were bottom of the possession pile but averaged 5.3 corners per game, more than the top two sides and Western Sydney Wanderers (five), and won the corner count in two of their three matches against the Nix including their last two, the most recent of which was at HBF Park.

The Perth side also earned five corners in their season opener at Macarthur, one more than their hosts, despite the scoreline and possession stats highlighting the disparity between the teams.

I'm expecting some sort of a reaction this weekend from the Glory, who are more comfortable in front of their own supporters, and they have won the corner count in three of their last four games at HBF Park.

The Nix, meanwhile, took one corner fewer than Western United last weekend and have lost the corner count in eight of their last nine A-League matches (including the play-offs).

At just under EVS, I think it's worth siding with history and backing the Glory to push for goals in Perth, which should help to up their corner numbers on Saturday.

Offers

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