Athletic Club vs AZ Prediction: Hosts’ home form is too strong

Athletic Club host AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League on Thursday (20:00, TNT Sports 9) at San Mames Barria. The hosts are back in Europe for the first time in six years and they will be hoping to mark their first home game back with a win. They earned a respectable point away to Roma last week, and they are now unbeaten in their last five in all competitions.

AZ have started well in the Eredivisie as they sit third in the table with 16 points after seven games, and they got off to a flyer in Europe with a 3-2 win over Elfsborg last week. Read on for my Athletic Club vs AZ prediction, accompanied by match odds and team news.

Athletic Club vs AZ Odds

Athletic Club are 8/13 to take the three points here, which gives them a theoretical chance of 61.9%. AZ are valued at 4/1 to post a second-straight win, giving them an implied probability of 20%. The draw is marketed at 11/4 (26.7%).

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 4/5, while both teams to score is available at the same odds.

The hosts' Gorka Guruzeta has two goals for himself in the Spanish top-flight, and he is the 6/4 favourite to score at any stage during this contest.

In Rome last week, Aitor Paredes was the man to pop up with an 85th-minute equaliser and he is 11/1 to get on the scoresheet again.

AZ's Ruben van Bommel netted a brace against Elfsborg and he is 4/1 to find the back of the net at San Mames Barria. Troy Parrott was the other man on the scoresheet that day, and the Irishman has netted five goals in the Eredivisie so far in 2024/25. You will find him at 12/5 to score anytime on Thursday.

Football Odds

Team News 

Spain international Unai Simon will miss this match with a wrist injury, so Julen Agirrezabala will be the man in between the sticks. The shot-stopper was sent off at the weekend against Sevilla but he will be able to feature in Europe as the ban relates to domestic matches.

Yeray is also in the medical bay, as is forward Oihan Sancet, who has scored three goals in La Liga this term. Former Manchester United man Ander Herrera is also absent due to a muscular issue.

For the visitors, former Stoke City defender Bruno Martins-Indi missed out at Elfsborg due to suspension and injury, but he returned to the side at the weekend so he could be in line to feature on Thursday.

Striker Parrott has found a new lease of life since being able to take control of his career with a permanent switch from Tottenham Hotspur to the Dutch side. He is enjoying himself in front of goal at the moment and he will play a key role up top for his team in Bilbao.

AZ are missing Wouter Goes and Sam Westerweld due to injury, however.

Athletic Club to win to nil @ 7/4

When people say San Mames Barria is a fortress, they are not kidding. The Spanish side have lost just two of their last 27 home matches in all competitions, so their form here is largely too strong for their opponents.

I can see this trend continuing when AZ come to town. It may be considered a long shot considering the Dutch outfit are going well and scoring plenty of goals, but I fancy Athletic Club to win this clash to nil.

They have only conceded eight goals in La Liga this term and they were able to limit Roma to just one goal away from home last week, a team that are being looked at to venture far in this competition, so you have to think so can Athletic Club.

With the attacking quality in brothers Inaki and Nico Williams, the Basque club boast two excellent players who will be huge assets for them in this competition. Nico had an excellent summer as he starred for Spain in their Euro 2024 triumph, so he will be primed to play a key role for his club in the Europa League after a six-year absence.

I do see AZ's attackers causing Bilbao some problems but their home record cannot be argued with. I was impressed with how they limited the damage in Rome last week against a team well-seasoned in this competition, so I think they have it in them to take the three points against AZ whilst keeping a clean sheet in the process.

Nico Williams anytime goalscorer @ 2/1

Nico Williams is such an exciting player and he was so impressive at the Euros over the summer. The 22-year-old will be eager to add more goals to his game to help him reach the next level in his development, and I have a feeling he can open his Europa League account on home soil against AZ.

In all competitions last year, the attacker contributed five goals and 11 assists, and he will feel as though his goal tally can easily be beaten this year, especially after the valuable international experience he picked up over the summer.

He was limited to a cameo from the bench against Roma, but I think he will be promoted to the starting lineup for this game because Athletic Club will need their best attacking players on the pitch and he is unquestionably one of them.

Nico Williams has one goal so far in 2024/25 and that came in the middle of September against Las Palmas, so it does feel like a second is overdue. I am backing him to get on the scoresheet in this one.

Offers

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