Inter Milan vs AC Milan Prediction: Seven up for I Nerazzurri in Milan derby

The first Milan derby of the 2024/25 season takes place at the Stadio Guiseppe Meazza on Sunday night (19:45, TNT Sports 1) with Inter and Milan in contrasting moods heading into the weekend. Reigning champions Inter are unbeaten after their first four games and held Manchester City to a goalless draw in England on Wednesday, whereas Milan suffered a 3-1 home defeat to Liverpool a day earlier and have won just once under new boss Paulo Fonseca.

Read below for my Inter Milan vs AC Milan prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this mouthwatering clash at San Siro.

Team News

Inter are yet to win away this season, drawing 2-2 at Genoa on the opening weekend before following up a 1-1 draw at Monza last Sunday with a 0-0 in Manchester three days later.

Head coach Simone Inzaghi made seven changes for the midweek trip to Manchester, swapping out defenders Benjamin Pavard, Stefan de Vrij and Federico Dimarco for Yann Bisseck, Francesco Acerbi and Alessandro Bastoni. Carlos Augusto moved from the left-hand side of a back three against Monza to left wing-back at the Etihad but is expected to drop out on Sunday with Dimarco likely to be back fit, while De Vrij and Pavard should return in front of goalkeeper Yann Sommer alongside Bastoni.

Denzel Dumfries was a second-half substitute in both games, scoring Inter's equaliser in the first, and the Netherlands international should be restored to the starting XI this weekend at the expense of Matteo Darmian.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan also began Wednesday's match on the bench but is likely to start in the middle of midfield with Nicolo Barella and Hakan Calhanoglu against Milan, with captain Lautaro Martinez returning to partner Marcus Thuram up top.

Football Odds

Milan won their first game under Fonseca last Saturday, beating Venezia 4-0 at San Siro, but the Portuguese head coach made three changes to his starting XI for the visit of Arne Slot's Liverpool on Tuesday, dropping Emerson Royal, Matteo Gabbia and Tammy Abraham for Davide Calabria, Fikayo Tomori and Alvaro Morata.

Fonseca's changes didn't have the desired effect as, despite taking an early lead, Milan were well beaten by the Premier League side, cranking up the pressure on him in the dugout.

Abraham could come back in for Morata on Sunday, but the biggest issue for Fonseca to contend with ahead of the derby lies in goal, with Mike Maignan forced off through injury in midweek. Should the Frenchman fail to pass a fitness test, 19-year-old Lorenzo Torriani will be forced to deputise once again with veteran shot-stopper Marco Sportiello still in the treatment room alongside Ismael Bennacer, Alessandro Florenzi and Malick Thiaw.

Inter Milan vs AC Milan Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Inter Milan vs AC Milan page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Inter are 4/6 favourites to record a seventh-straight victory over their city rivals, giving I Nerazzurri an implied win probability of 60%, while Milan are 4/1, or a 20% chance, to beat Inzaghi's side for the first time since September 2022.

A first derby draw since March 2022 can be backed at 3/1, while both teams to score is priced at 4/6.

Martinez (13/10) leads the anytime scorer market followed by strike partners Thuram and Mehdi Taremi (both 6/4), while Morata (5/2) is shortest priced for Milan.

Half-Time/Full-Time - Inter Milan/Inter Milan @ 6/4

Inter have utterly dominated this fixture in recent years, winning the last six head-to-heads with an aggregate of 14-2. The first four of those saw I Nerazzurri keep clean sheets before Milan finally broke their barren run in a 5-1 thrashing last September, Rafael Leao scoring what proved to be a consolation effort.

Inzaghi's charges made quick starts in the majority of those matches, holding the lead at half-time in all but one, including both games last season.

Poor first halves have already become a feature for I Rossoneri under Fonseca as they have been down at the interval in three of their five contests so far under the Portuguese tactician, going on to lose two of them - 2-1 at Parma on August 24 and 3-1 at home to Liverpool earlier this week.

Inter, meanwhile, have been leading at half-time in both home games this season and ended up winning both - 2-0 v Lecce and 4-0 v Atalanta.

Milan looked like they were feeling the pressure in the second half against Liverpool on Tuesday, and their bitter rivals will be looking to make them pay early on this weekend.

An early goal for Inter could well prove fatal to Milan's chances of achieving a positive result.

Bet Builder - Lautaro Martinez (INT) Anytime Scorer, Christian Pulisic (MIL) 1+ Shots on Target, Denzel Dumfries (INT) Carded @ 12/1

It's been a slow start to the season for Martinez, who is yet to score in four appearances for Inter - albeit he was only a 66th-minute substitute at City on Wednesday - or two 2026 World Cup qualifiers for Argentina.

Perhaps that was to be expected given the short break he was given following his involvement at the 2024 Copa America in the summer when he struck the winner in the final against Colombia to secure the trophy for his country.

The 27-year-old is still working his way back to full fitness, but what a way to get back into the goalscoring groove it would be on Sunday in such a high-profile clash.

Martinez has a great record against Milan, netting eight times in 16 appearances against them, including a brace in last September's thrashing. He'll be facing a vulnerable defence this weekend, one that has shipped nine goals across the first five games, creating the perfect conditions for him to break his barren run.

Next, I'm heading to the player shot on target market and backing Milan's Christian Pulisic to at least test Sommer in the Inter goal on Sunday.

Pulisic has scored in his last three appearances for club and country, netting for the USA in a 1-1 draw with New Zealand before bagging for his club side against Venezia and Liverpool. The 26-year-old also struck in a 2-1 defeat to Parma last month, meaning he has three goals in his last four matches for Milan.

It will be tough for him to make it four in a row for I Rossoneri this weekend but he looks good for a shot on target, having registered five in total this term - two versus Parma and Venezia, and one against Liverpool.

The third and final leg of this bet builder requires Inter wing-back Dumfries to go into the referee's book. The Dutchman was sent off the last time these sides met after getting into an altercation with Milan captain Theo Hernandez, who was also dismissed for his actions, and tensions between the pair were stoked after Inter's open-top bus Scudetto celebration parade, where Dumfries held an unflattering banner that insulted the Frenchman.

Dumfries subsequently apologised for his unprofessionalism, but events like that only add to rivalries such as this, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the thick of the action on Sunday, whether it be for his aggressive style of play or a coming together with an opposition player.

The 28-year-old is averaging 1.3 fouls per game in Serie A this season and conceded two free-kicks in the first Milan derby in 2023/24.

Leao was well-shackled by Liverpool right-back Trent-Alexander Arnold in the Champions League but when the Portuguese winger is on song, he can be a difficult man to stop, with opposition defenders often taking alternative action to derail him, something Dumfries might well consider this weekend.