Sunderland vs Middlesbrough Prediction: Boro’s record in this fixture cannot be ignored

Sunderland welcome their north eastern neighbours Middlesbrough to the Stadium of Light on Saturday (12:30, Sky Sports Football) in the EFL Championship, looking to bounce back from their first defeat of the season against Plymouth Argyle last weekend.

The Black Cats remain second in the table with 12 points, while Boro are 10th with eight points gathered so far, but they are unbeaten in their last three outings. Read on for my Sunderland vs Middlesbrough prediction, featuring match odds and team news.

Sunderland vs Middlesbrough Odds

Sunderland are 6/4, or a 40% chance to win this match. Middlesbrough are valued at 9/5 to take the three points, giving them an implied probability of 35.7%. The draw is available at 12/5 (29.4%).

Both teams to score is on offer at 4/6 and over 2.5 goals is marketed at 5/6. Sunderland winger Romaine Mundle has three goals in the Championship so far and he is priced at 18/5 to score anytime in this clash.

Middlesbrough forward Tommy Conway has two for himself and you can back him at 11/5 to find the back of the net at any stage of the match.

In this exact fixture last season, Boro won the game 4-0 and that scoreline is available at a whopping 80/1 for Saturday.

Football Odds

Team News 

Sunderland still have quite a few defensive absentees heading into this clash, with Niall Huggins, Jenson Seelt and Aji Alese still in the treatment room. Chris Mepham is still waiting to be deemed fit to play since joining the club on loan from Bournemouth over the summer.

Mackems boss Regis Le Bris could opt to stick with the same XI that saw Sunderland lose their first match of the season at Home Park a week ago, perhaps thinking they will bounce back on home soil.

Alan Browne will be looking to force his way into the side but he is competing with a talented trio in Dan Neil, Jobe Bellingham and teenage sensation Chris Rigg. The front three should remain unchanged with Mundle, Eliezer Mayenda and Patrick Roberts.

Boro have a bigger injury list than their hosts. Michael Carrick is going to be without Darragh Lenihan, Dael Fry, Tommy Smith, Alex Bangura, Jonny Howson and Marcus Forss for Saturday's trip to the Stadium of Light.

Like the Black Cats, the back four should remain unchanged as Boro are unbeaten in their last three matches. Daniel Barlaser and Hayden Hackney have been performing well in midfield but Aidan Morris will be trying to snatch one of those spots in the middle of the park.

Boro will be hoping that striker Emmanuel Latte Lath can get his head straightened out after his head was turned by Premier League interest over the summer. The Ivorian scored 16 goals in the league last term and he will need to find that same rhythm if Boro are to be serious promotion contenders this year.

He has one goal in five so far, so that will need to improve if his side are to climb the table.

Draw or Middlesbrough & both teams to score @ 7/5

Sunderland have won just one of the last 10 meetings between these two sides in all competitions, and in the Championship, they have lost four out of six against Boro.

Michael Carrick's side stunned them last year as they won 4-0 at the Stadium of Light. The Black Cats were then able to show an improvement at the Riverside Stadium later in the season as they played out a 1-1 draw in February.

It feels like it is a bad time to face Boro on this occasion too. Sunderland have suffered their first setback under Regis Le Bris and the fact it came against a team they were expected to beat comfortably means they need a quick response.

Middlesbrough have been their bogey team for quite some time now and I sense that this trend will continue on Saturday. It should be interesting as both these sides will want to be in the promotion picture come May, so neither can really afford to drop points here.

In this instance, the recent meetings suggest it is unlikely Sunderland will win, but I think there is a chance they can get a point from this match. I've gone for Draw or Boro double chance but I've boosted the odds by adding both teams to score.

The hosts have scored 12 goals in the league so far, scoring in every game, while Boro have found the back of the net on six occasions.

Trai Hume to receive a card @ 11/4

This fixture can be feisty at times and I think we can expect that sort of edge to this latest encounter on Saturday. Sunderland have started the season well and will think they can establish themselves in the automatic promotion conversation, while Boro will at least want to be top-six contenders this time around.

As I mentioned above, this is a match where both teams will feel they cannot afford to drop points so I think we will see a lot of challenges fly at the Stadium of Light. Therefore, we should see quite a few yellow cards distributed.

My pick for a player to go into the book is Sunderland's Trai Hume. The defenders has been carded three times already in 2024/25, but he has surprisingly committed just two fouls in five appearances in the league.

If anything, it highlights that his challenges can be reckless and that he is likely to pick up a booking for his first offence. And with the feistiness that comes with this Wear-Tees derby, I think he could lose his cool in the heat of the moment and get punished with his fourth card in six matches.

Offers

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