Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Prediction: Tonali can return with a bang

The live game on the Sky Sports Football channel (20:00) in the second round of the Carabao Cup sees two sides with very different aspirations for their season meet on the banks of the River Trent.

This may well be the place that Sandro Tonali returns from his 10-month ban. The Italian plays a big part in our match preview as Neil Monnery takes you through his Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle predictions...

Both teams come into this one with identical records on the season. I mean, you literally cannot split them through 180 minutes of Premier League football. They’ve both played twice, won once to go along with a draw, both scored on two occasions, conceded a solitary goal and they’ve even played the same sides.

They’ve both beaten Southampton and taken a point from a clash with the Bournemouth. Yet the feeling among the two sets of supporters could not be more different.

Fans of Nottingham Forest went into the campaign knowing that it wasn’t going to be easy. Last May, they celebrated survival, finishing just one spot above the drop zone as the three newly-promoted clubs all fell straight back down through the trapdoor.

Complying with PSR requirements has been a large-part of their summer transfer business that has seen the best part of £100m worth of players leave the club, along with a similar amount coming in through the door.

Top of that list has been former Newcastle midfielder Elliot Anderson. The 21-year-old midfielder had been an important player for Eddie Howe in his squad but once more, those three dreaded letters came to the fore and he was moved on for those same PSR issues.

Keeping hold of Morgan Gibbs-White though has been a big boost for Nuno Espírito Santo. Eyebrows were more than raised when Forest paid £25m with a further £17m in potential add-ons to bring him to the club two years ago but he’s more than proven his worth and is now widely-considered one of the best players outside the big clubs.

A draw and a good win on the road at St. Mary’s, where they dominated and fully deserved the three points, has been a really solid start for Forest and fans won’t be unhappy with what they’ve seen in the early stages of the season.

The same though cannot be said for supporters of the Toon Army. For half-an-hour on the opening day, they were being outplayed by Southampton before Fabian Schar received his marching orders for his horrific headbutt on Ben Brereton Diaz. Ok I’m being a tad facetious there but the referee deemed the light touch of foreheads and the flamboyant wriggling around the floor in supposed pain of the Chilean international enough to warrant a red card.

After that incident, it seemed like a certainly that Newcastle would succumb to Southampton but they pounced on a mistake from the visiting goalkeeping to nab a goal and defended heroically - with the help of some shocking finishing in front of goal, with the aforementioned Brereton Diaz being the chief culprit - to take home the spoils.

A trip to the south coast to take on Bournemouth has not been a good one for Howe since his arrival on Tyneside and Sunday looked to have all the makings of another fruitless endeavour.

The visitors were abject for most of the game and were lucky not to be two or three down when a flurry of substitutions did change the momentum. An equaliser came and a winner could have followed but in the end, it was only the intervention of an overly fussy VAR official that ensured they travelled back to the North East with a point in their back pocket.

Newcastle have not played well in either of their two Premier League matches yet and with the transfer window still having not brought in any new starters to the club, fans are growing more antsy with every hour that passes and an upgrade at CB or RW still hasn’t come in through the door.

This though sets us up nicely for the crux of this preview. Wednesday night is highly-likely to see the return of Italian midfielder Sandro Tonali. His 10-month ban for betting on matches that he was involved in ends on Tuesday night and he is available to his manager for the first time since last autumn.

The clichéd ‘feels like a new signing’ saying will be used ad nauseam by writers and pundits alike over the next 48 hours or so but it has some merit. Here is a £52m midfielder who showed everyone in his debut against Aston Villa last year that he has all the ability in the world. Adding him to the starting XI would offer a huge dash of creativity to a midfield that feels very workmanlike, with Joelinton and Sean Longstaff currently flanking Bruno Guimaraes.

This might not be the most interesting match in the second round of the Carabao Cup but I feel plenty of eyes will be on the Italian to see whether he can step straight back into the first team and elevate their play.

Team News:

Newcastle fans may look for Tonali’s name first but the second will likely be whether Chris Wood starts for Forest. The former Toon striker scored a hat-trick against his former club last season and would be a great bet to bag another on Wednesday night, although the option of rotation and giving Taiwo Awoniyi the start seems more likely.

Danilo is the only player who is definitely out for the home side; that ankle break on opening day will see the Brazilian spend plenty of time on the sidelines.

I’d expect plenty of changes for both teams with squad players getting a run out to keep them fresh.

Over on the Toon side, Miguel Almiron and Harvey Barnes could well start along with Joe Willock. Kieran Trippier looked excellent in his cameo from the bench on Sunday and this would be a good spot to give him minutes. Whether they give new signing Will Osula a start to rest Alexander Isak will be an interesting one to watch when the team sheets come out.

Defensively, Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles are both out long-term and Schar is serving the second game of that three-match ban. Lewis Hall should return to the side at left-back.

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Odds

The traders here at Betfred make Newcastle the seemingly pretty big favourites, which is a little bit of a surprise to me. Howe’s men are 11/10 (48%) chance of winning the match in 90 minutes. Forest are 21/10 (32%) with the draw a very tasty looking 5/2 (29%).

Both Teams to Score is too short for my tastes, coming in at 1/2 and the 4/7 for Over 2.5 is also on the slim side.

Callum Wilson is the shortest price in the anytime scorer market at 6/5 but I doubt he starts as he’s still recovering from a back issue that has sidelined him so far this campaign. Isak can be backed at 13/10 with Awoniyi the top-rated Forest player to find the back of the net, coming in at 6/4.

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Over 10.5 Corners @ 1/1

The first bet is an even-money shot on the corners market. Both Newcastle games so far in the league have been littered with these. 15 were taken in the win over Southampton and 17 down at the Vitality on Sunday. Forest took 10 just themselves in the match just up the road at St. Mary’s on Sunday.

I just feel that for a 50:50 shot that the odds are suggesting, the smart money is on the over.

Sandro Tonali to score anytime @ 5/1

Look, this is a romantic play but should the Italian midfielder start then this feels like a good roll of the dice.

Newcastle have struggled for attacking momentum down the right-flank so far this campaign and adding him to the midfield would add plenty of creativity. It was reported that he’s spent much of his ban working out and now has the hardest shot at the club.

When you see Anderson is available to back at 7/2, despite never having scored a goal in his 55 appearances for Newcastle before his move to the banks of the Trent in the summer, the storyline of Tonali coming back into the side and finding the back of the net feels like something that could well happen.

Remember, Ivan Toney scored on his return to the Brentford first team last year following his gambling-related suspension.

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Prediction

I’m not expecting a classic but it could well be interesting. That 13/2 (13% chance) for the 1-1 Correct Score though feels like great value.

It is the shortest-price in the market but with Newcastle’s lack of attacking prowess so far this campaign, coupled with expected rotation. This has a low-score draw written all over it and the drama of penalties to follow.

You can check out all of the Football Betting Tips from our team on our main Football page.