West Brom vs Leeds Prediction: Action man Ampadu could risk referee’s wrath

Leeds United are looking to get their first points of the 2024/25 Championship season on board when they make the trip to The Hawthorns to face West Bromwich Albion on Saturday (12:30, Sky Sports Main Event). The Whites drew 3-3 at Elland Road in their opening league game last weekend while the Baggies beat QPR 3-1 at Loftus Road.

Read on for my West Brom vs Leeds prediction and all the latest team news heading into this clash between two promotion candidates.

Team News

Albion head coach Carlos Coreberan changed his entire starting XI for Tuesday's 2-1 defeat to Fleetwood Town in the Carabao Cup.

The Spaniard is expected to revert to the line-up that served the Baggies so well in west London last weekend, meaning returns for the likes of Semi Ajayi, Jayson Molumby and John Swift.

Football Odds

Leeds' start to the season got worse on Wednesday as they slumped to a 3-0 loss to Middlesbrough at Elland Road, exiting the Carabao Cup as a result. To rub salt into the wounds, French forward Georginio Rutter - who scored seven times and registered 16 assists in last season's Championship - was on his way to Brighton & Hove Albion the following day, ready to join Archie Gray and Crysencio Summerville through the Elland Road exit door.

Rutter started the Whites' Championship opener against Portsmouth, and he is likely to be replaced by Brenden Aaronson, who scored Leeds' late equaliser in that game before finding time to miss a sitter which ultimately cost them the chance to take all three points.

Meanwhile, Max Wober - an unused substitute against Pompey before starting against Boro - is a doubt with a calf complaint.

West Brom vs Leeds Odds

West Brom are 5/2 to beat Leeds in back-to-back seasons at the Hawthorns - Grady Diangana struck the only goal of the game last December - giving the hosts a 28.6% chance of winning, while the visitors are favourites at 21/20 (48.8%).

The draw can be backed at 5/2, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Patrick Bamford (2/1) is the shortest-priced to score anytime, but the Leeds striker may not start ahead of Spanish striker Mateo Joseph (11/5). Josh Maja (23/10) is favourite to find the net anytime for Albion after netting a hat-trick in last weekend's win at QPR.

Double Chance or Draw & BTTS - West Brom or Draw & Yes @ 9/5

West Brom suffered an early setback in their Championship opener, conceding in the 16th minute to QPR's Lucas Andersen, but the Baggies levelled 10 minutes later through Maja and after some wise words from Corberan during the interval, the 25-year-old added two more in the second half to bring up his hat-trick and secure all three points for the Baggies.

Exiting the Carabao Cup in midweek wasn't ideal, but it was a completely changed starting XI, and there is much more confidence in the abilities of Corberan's preferred line-up.

Albion's record at The Hawthorns was strong last season - only the top three (Ipswich Town - 54, Leeds - 53, Leicester City - 52) - picked up more points at home than their total of 49 in B71, and this weekend's opponents were among those dispatched there.

Leeds also failed to beat WBA at Elland Road, being held to a 1-1 draw in West Yorkshire last August, meaning they haven't beaten the Baggies since May 2021, while their last victory at The Hawthorns came in December 2020.

The Whites shipped three goals at home to newly-promoted Portsmouth last weekend and conceded the same amount to Boro in midweek, so I haven't got much faith in them to keep a clean sheet at West Brom on Saturday. Maja should be on cloud nine after his hat-trick against QPR and he will relish the opportunity to take on a leaky defence.

The departure of Rutter, meanwhile, has harmed their own chances of scoring. Rutter was their creative outlet last season and also weighed in with some important goals - losing him is a big blow, especially without a ready-made replacement waiting in the wings.

For the above reasons, I'm not backing the visitors to record their first victory of the new season, but with Joseph, Bamford, Wilfried Gnonto and Dan James still around, they can get on the scoresheet. Whether a goal or two will be enough to avoid defeat remains to be seen - the double chance on the hosts and BTTS looks like the way to go here.

Player to Receive a Card - Ethan Ampadu @ 11/4

It was a feisty affair when the sides first met at Elland Road last year with Leeds shown four yellow cards and West Brom cautioned five times. There was less angst in the reverse fixture, just one yellow shown to either, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another card-fest on Saturday.

There were six yellows shown in Leeds' first league game against Portsmouth and a further six handed out in their cup exit to Boro. Albion, meanwhile, avoided the wrath of the referee against QPR but received two bookings against Fleetwood, matching the number shown to the League 2 outfit.

Rather than go for the overs, though, I'm opting for Leeds' Ethan Ampadu's name to be scrawled into the referee's notebook at The Hawthorns.

Ampadu has established himself as a card merchant in his short career to date, breaching the 10-card threshold in each of his last three seasons, all for different clubs. The 23-year-old received 13 yellows and two reds for Venezia in Serie A before being cautioned 11 times and dismissed once in the same league for Spezia.

The Wales international moved to Elland Road last summer and was booked 10 times for the Whites, averaging a foul per game. He played the majority of the previous campaign at centre-back but has started both of Leeds' matches this term in the middle of midfield, heightening his chances of making fouls and getting involved in altercations.

Ampadu has avoided a booking so far but a first of the season is surely around the corner. He made one foul against Pompey before tripling his total against Boro, and I'm backing him to make a few on Saturday, which makes odds of 11/4 appealing.

Offers:

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