Belgium vs Luxembourg Prediction: Narrow home win expected for KDB and Co.

Having failed to win a major tournament under Roberto Martinez, Euro 2024 feels like a fresh start for Belgium, and the expectation of their golden generation has worn off. They beat Montenegro 2-0 on home soil on Wednesday night, and with a talented squad, could make a big impact in Germany. 

Next up they face Luxembourg on Saturday night (19:00), in their final warm-up match before their tournament gets underway against Slovakia next Monday. Below you can find my Belgium vs Luxembourg prediction, as Domenico Tedesco looks to finalise his preferred starting XI.

Team News

Romelu Lukaku missed the win over Montenegro but is expected to feature here, while Luis Openda will be hoping for another opportunity after an impressive season for his club side, RB Leipzig. Leandro Trossard scored off the bench last time out, and Tedesco’s big challenge will be trying to get him, Yannick Carrasco and Jeremy Doku into the same team. 

Meanwhile Luxembourg may choose to start Gerson Rodrigues up front on his own again, as they did against France, while St. Pauli’s Danel Sinani is sure to start. He had spells at Huddersfield Town and Norwich City, and is now used in a wide midfield position for his country. 

Belgium vs Luxembourg Odds 

Belgium are the clear favourites for this game, priced at 1/14 to win, while Luxembourg are 28/1. A draw can be backed at 10/1, BTTS is 13/8 and over 2.5 goals is 1/3.

Belgium to keep a clean sheet @ 4/9

Belgium’s strength may come in attack, but they’ve proven themselves to be incredibly solid at the back of late. Under Tedesco, they’ve now kept seven clean sheets out of their nine matches, with only England and Austria breaking them down over the last 12 months.

They are facing a Luxembourg team who have failed to score in three of their last six games, and lost 3-0 to France in midweek. Belgium should be able to win this game to nil, and I’m expecting them to limit Luxembourg to a handful of chances.

Belgium and under 2.5 goals @ 3/1

Although I think Belgium are a talented outfit that will keep a clean sheet in this game, I also think this will be a relatively tight encounter, The home side should have enough to win this game, but Luxembourg are a better side than they get credit for, and are rarely blown away by the opposition. 

They only conceded three against France, who are superior to Belgium (and almost every other national team for that matter), and while Portugal hammered them in qualifying, I don’t think this will have the same feel to it. Luxembourg are likely to lose this game, but I think they can keep the scoreline respectable. 

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